Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: Exciting MLB Matchup

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00:00We got a matchup of the best team in Major League Baseball, the best record,

00:03that being the Detroit Tigers tonight as they welcome in Chicago 41-23

00:08and the second best record in the bigs at 39-23, the Chicago Cubs,

00:15of course, the best mark in the National League.

00:17With Scooble on the bump tonight in Detroit,

00:20how do you see the opening game of this really marquee matchup this weekend playing out?

00:25I don't know if we get to eight runs.

00:26I start there because you see the totals at seven, six or less,

00:29probably in the forecast.

00:31Now, I'll explain why here.

00:32Tarek Scooble's been nothing short of sensational.

00:34His last 30 days, his full season, it doesn't matter.

00:36But over the last 30 days, 35 innings pitched, 2-0 out of five game starts,

00:41which is crazy because his XFIP number over those 35 innings is 1.70.

00:46You take a look at some of the numbers on field, 125 batters that he's faced.

00:50How about an ISO rate of 0.58?

00:52How about a weighted on-base percentage against of 1.73?

00:54How about the lefty's ISO power rate at a zero?

00:57How about righties 0.71?

00:59How about free passes?

01:001.6% of the batters out of 125 have reached base on a walk.

01:05How about strikeout percentage?

01:0640, excuse me, 41%.

01:10How are you even hitting baseballs?

01:13Now, granted, we love that Chicago Cubs lineup.

01:15Don't get me wrong.

01:16I just don't love them tonight.

01:17But here's the issue that we have where we start talking about some of these numbers that say,

01:20ooh, is this right?

01:21Like the favorites for Detroit, they should be at a minus 200.

01:24If you look at Ben Brown, his last 30 days, 25 and a third innings pitched.

01:28How about an ERA, Ben, of 6.75?

01:31You say, wait a second.

01:32This number should be minus 400 as a favorite towards Detroit.

01:35Not so fast.

01:37Analytically for Ben Brown, who of his 25 and a third innings pitched, Ben, 2.47.

01:41That's number three on the card.

01:42You have the top pitcher on the card, Scoobal, and number three at Ben Brown.

01:45You say, that doesn't make sense.

01:47His ERA is almost a seven, but you're telling me he's a really good pitcher.

01:49Getting a little bit unlucky because, just like Scoobal, he is a strikeout machine and doesn't offer up free passes,

01:56which usually is the recipe for disaster because balls in play means more running being scored.

02:01If you look at Detroit, if there's any flaw that Ben Brown has over the past 30 days, it's left-handed batters.

02:0643 of those going up against him, a .225 ISO and a weighted on-base percentage of .358.

02:11You know I love my—I love those left-handed batters for Detroit.

02:14And how about this?

02:15Parker Meadows, lefty, hammering right-handed pitching over the past month.

02:18Kerry Carpenter doing the same.

02:20Riley Green doing the same.

02:21Wenzel Perez, who's a switch hitter who batted from the left-hand side tonight, hammering those pitchers.

02:25So I look at this and say, it is a very expensive price.

02:29Yes, Detroit is the better team, but could we get a bounce-back effort here out of Ben Brown ERA-wise

02:34to match up with that exit number?

02:36So instead of laying the minus 200, I'm confident both of these pitchers will do enough

02:41in this pitcher's ballpark to keep that number from going to eight.

02:45How about that?

02:45Line is working a little bit against Detroit, kind of moving back to the Cubbies, kind of

02:50with the idea of DRS.

02:52Detroit should be a favorite, of course, with Tarek Skubal on the bump, but maybe not as

02:57long as that number suggested.

02:59It's now minus 174.

03:00Still a hefty price in favor of Detroit, but not quite two bills.

03:05Skubal, to win his second consecutive American League Cy Young Award, is a minus money favorite

03:10already at minus 160.

03:11Paul Skeens in the National League, minus 140.

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