AL Central Showdown: Guardians vs. Royals Analysis

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00:00and we'll see you back here next week.

00:03There is a chance there's a new team atop the American League

00:06Central standings by the time we speak tomorrow on a Wednesday.

00:10However, the Guardians a minus 158 favorite to stay in front

00:14of the Royals. Michael Lorenzen was great last week for Casey.

00:18The total is 9 if Kansas City wins. We are tied atop the AL

00:23Central with the Royals and the Guardians. Does that happen

00:26today in the land? Let's I do think the advantage would be

00:31towards the Royals. But if we take a look at the total in this

00:33ballgame, I think that might be the best way to play and play

00:36it to the over. The reason is Michael Lorenzen. Take a look

00:38at his last 30 days. He's faced a hundred and eight batters.

00:41He actually has very good ice on weighted on base percentages.

00:43But how real are those numbers? I like to say again dancing

00:46between the raindrops without getting wet. Why I have him

00:49with 25th pitcher at a 26 over the past 60 days with an X

00:53fifth number of 5.63. That means he gives up too many fly

00:56balls doesn't strike out enough guys and the ball will be in

00:59play. He also keep in mind in Cleveland today. Ben 90 degree

01:02temperatures at first pitch with an 8 mile an hour wind blowing

01:05out to right field. If we focus on those Kansas City batters

01:08Gavin Williams isn't a great pitcher last 105 batters. He's

01:11facing ISO 226, which is elevated weighted on base

01:14percentage 348. Look at the lineup here Massey with

01:18Pasquantino Melendez for me and all high weighted on base

01:22percentages today. Forget about the side itself. Take the

01:25total. I think both of these teams bring their bats out

01:28today and we get a total to the over.