Cleveland vs. Kansas City: MLB Game Analysis & Odds

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00:00It's Cleveland, it's Kansas City, it's Bybee, it's WACA, and roughly, no matter where you're

00:05shopping at right now, it looks like a pick'em price with a total bouncing from an opening

00:09total of eight to sevens and seven and a halves.

00:13Bybee, WACA, Guardians, Kansas City, what do we got?

00:17Yeah, this is going to be, I would say the, I don't want to say like the cookie cutter

00:22kind of game or the prototypical game that we're going to see between these AL Central

00:26teams where it's like, we talked about like these four teams, not including the White

00:29Sox, are basically even, like we're never going to be getting dramatic money line prices.

00:33It's basically going to be a toss-up.

00:34Outside of what the school bowl is at home, like these teams are just going to be constantly

00:38around minus 110, minus 120.

00:40Regardless of that, Tanner Bybee making his first start of the year.

00:43No more food poisoning than we had on opening day back on Thursday.

00:46He's good to go.

00:47Obviously I've spoken extensively about Bybee this year going over 162 and a half strikeouts.

00:52He's a pitcher that I like.

00:53He's a pitcher that is in a spot to see plenty of innings for the Guardians, obviously with

00:57Shane Bieber still out.

00:59Last year, solid 26.3% strikeout rate, only a 6.2% walk rate.

01:03I love the fact, again, he does not waste pitches when he's on the mound, he does not

01:06allow a super high hard contact rate.

01:09Last year he was at 29.9%.

01:10So he's never putting himself in too much danger.

01:13The fly balls are a slight issue for him, but again, it's only a 43%.

01:16So can you look to the Royals?

01:18Of course you can.

01:19They have a great offense.

01:20We've spoken about them.

01:21Bobby Wick doing his thing.

01:24This game does look under to me.

01:25It really does.

01:26Michael Waka, also a pitcher.

01:28I'm never running to look at Michael Waka props because he's not a big strikeout pitcher,

01:33but he also does not allow a lot of damage, like a 28.2% strikeout rate last year, a 28.2%

01:41hard contact rate last year with a strikeout rate of only 20%.

01:45He doesn't get hit.

01:46He just deads the ball and he induces ground balls.

01:48That's what we have for both pitchers.

01:50As good as the offenses are, if J-Ram's not playing for the Guardians today, it's going

01:53to be that much weaker.

01:54Give me the under, and I actually don't have interest in player props as much as I would

01:58want to.

01:59It's just not today.

02:00Yeah, it's not a great one overall because you do take a look at, again, sometimes the

02:03focus here is how they left off last year, maybe some things that they were doing in

02:06spring training.

02:07But last year, 781 batters by the face.

02:09He was electric against right-handed batters, gave it up a little bit against lefties.

02:13So my focus, if any, would be in that Kansas City Royals lineup, just looking at the left-handed

02:16guys, which would be Vinny Pasquantino in the middle of that lineup and Michael Massey.

02:20Both of them 188 ISO power numbers.

02:22Not fantastic, but above the median there and decent weighted on base percentages.

02:26If you take a look at some RBI props for them, plus 165 on Vinny P in the middle of that

02:30lineup at bet 365.

02:32And then for Massey, a plus 200 price at the FanDuel Sportsbook.

02:35Now yesterday, I did cash in on a hit, run, and RBI prop.

02:39But sometimes it's hard because the good part about this as well is we're handicapping along

02:42with you guys at home.

02:43Like the rosters that we have at 7 a.m. as he anticipated, as we're handicapping, do

02:48change now.

02:49We see some of the rosters come out.

02:50So sometimes you say, well, Donnie, why didn't you take a hit, run, and RBI prop or bet those

02:54already?

02:55You don't want to ruin it because then the three turns into two, which then is real minus

02:58money and you don't want to leave that out.

03:00The goal is to get as close to plus money, if not plus money, as possible.

03:04And we know on Sunday afternoons, one of the trickiest scheduling days, particularly with

03:07starting lineups.

03:08So always word to the wise that you'll see everything we're giving out now, usually I'm

03:12going to finalize that after the show.

03:13You got about an hour, hour and a half till that first pitch happens, but fun nonetheless

03:17across the board.

03:18Kansas City and Cleveland.

03:19We'll watch out some of those player props and the lineups once they become official.

03:22Now, I know everybody wants to get excited about baseball games.

03:25And if you're showing up for the Chicago White Sox game today against the Los Angeles Angels

03:30and let's just say Trout sits out, I don't know what you're watching out there, but let's

03:34get this one straight, 963, 964, a 210 start.

03:38Martin is going to go for the White Sox.

03:40Now I'm going to try to pronounce this for the Angels.

03:42I think it's coach on a witch or Coke and a witch.

03:46I don't know.

03:47Cause I've never heard the guy watch the guy pitch or even got a good feel for the guy,

03:50but he's a favorite today against the White Sox.

03:52We just let you know how low the White Sox actually are here, Tom.

03:56Yeah.

03:57I believe it's a good channel.

03:58It's for, that's the actual pronoun, uh, how you pronounce his name, uh, yeah, last year.

04:05I mean, last year was his first year was only 65 and he sample size last year.

04:08So it isn't the biggest sample size.

04:10I, I can't explain how low of a strikeout rate he has.

04:15It was at 9.4% last year, which is insanely low.

04:18Like I said, 20% slow, 30% is awesome.

04:2220% on 9.4 is low, even at 64 readings, which isn't a big sample size.

04:26Davis Martin on the other side of pictures has been up and down for the White Sox.

04:29Listen to 19, 4% strikeout rate over the course of his MLB career over the past few years.

04:33Isn't super high.

04:34He doesn't allow barrels.

04:35He doesn't allow hard contact.

04:36He doesn't allow fly balls.

04:38Listen, if you have MLB TV, don't watch this game.

04:41Literally don't watch this game.

04:42If you want to take a shot on Luis Robert, who's we've talked about before, hopefully

04:46he gets traded somewhere just because of the talent alone.

04:48That's fine.

04:49But there are so many other better games to watch today.

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