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Rand Paul Condemns 'Big, Not-So-Beautiful Bill' On The Senate Floor
Forbes Breaking News
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6/30/2025
During debate on the Senate floor, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) rose in opposition to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and warned of its impact on the national deficit.
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00:00
President. I recognize a senator from Kentucky. In deciding whether to vote for
00:06
the big not-so-beautiful bill, I've asked a very specific question. Will the
00:11
deficit be more or less next year? The answer, without question, is this bill
00:18
will grow the deficit. The federal government has fancy formulas and
00:22
hundreds of wonky accountants who inform us of their projections over ten years.
00:27
But you often can't trust these projections. In an excellent piece
00:33
written by the Foundation for Economics and Education, entitled, The CBO's
00:38
Projections Are Worse Than Useless, Eric Schuller writes,
00:42
long-term analysis and language is commonplace in U.S. national politics,
00:47
but it achieves no useful outcome. It confuses far more than it clarifies. It
00:53
does not provide accurate estimates of long-term results. It does not improve
00:57
the average voters understanding of policy effects. And it gives politicians a means
01:03
to claim they are being fiscally responsible without actually ever
01:08
exercising any prudence whatsoever. Sometimes the predictions are off because
01:14
a new Congress is elected and changes the law. Eric Schuller writes that for any
01:19
projection of a ten-year budget to be accurate, the Congressional Budget Office
01:23
has to assume that the law won't change for ten years, even as most of the
01:28
politicians that make the laws risk being replaced every two years, and all of
01:33
them advocate for changes of one stripe or another. Schuller states that few in
01:38
Washington will admit Congress has a knack for starting any proposed cuts in the
01:44
later years, while letting spending run wild in the immediate future. Sometimes
01:49
these predictions are off by a trillion dollars or so because the economy grew more
01:54
slowly or more quickly than anticipated. Bruce Thompson, a former Senate aide and
02:00
Assistant Secretary of Treasury, writes, the Congressional Budget Office
02:05
miscalculated the deficit last year by a trillion dollars. So in deciding whether to
02:10
vote for any big, monstrous bill, it helps to ask the right question. To me the most
02:16
pertinent question is how will the bill affect the deficit in the next year?
02:20
Currently our deficit is estimated to be a little under two trillion dollars this
02:25
year. What will happen to the debt in 2026 if this bill passes? Well using the
02:31
math most favorable to the supporters of the bill, referred to as the policy
02:37
baseline, the deficit in 2026 will still be two hundred and seventy billion dollars
02:44
more than this year. So even using the math, even using the formulas that the
02:50
supporters of the bill like, the deficit will grow by two hundred and seventy
02:54
billion next year. This, that's just not good if you profess to be fiscally
02:58
conservative. Why will the deficit grow next year? Well even if you argue that the
03:04
2017 tax cuts don't need to be counted in the calculation at all, the new tax cuts
03:09
add up to two hundred and thirty four billion dollars to the debt next year. In
03:15
addition, the big not-so-beautiful bill adds new spending of over five hundred
03:21
billion dollars. Military, border, agricultural subsidies, etc. That spending is
03:27
front-loaded and will be spent in the first four years of the ten-year window.
03:32
Legislative spending is one of the few items in the bill that is exact. It isn't
03:37
estimated. If they say they'll spend five hundred billion, they're going to spend
03:41
five hundred billion, all in the first few years. So in order not to add to the
03:46
deficit, the BBB, the big not-so-beautiful bill, has to have
03:50
corresponding spending cuts to counter all the new spending. Unfortunately, the
03:56
spending cuts are back-loaded to the final five years of the ten-year window when
04:00
several tax cuts expire and the spending increases are finished. In addition,
04:06
elections occur every two years and could easily wipe out any perceived savings
04:11
that might occur in the later years. The only real certainty in this budget drama
04:16
are the budget years coming in the immediate future. It's the next year or two
04:23
are the only things that are actually of any certainty. So if we analyze this bill
04:27
from that perspective, we discover that the bill increases the debt by five hundred
04:33
billion dollars in the first five years. This is not the CBO projection that
04:38
Republicans have not liked. This is the projection they are using says the debt
04:42
will add five hundred billion dollars in the first five years. Now they say
04:47
somehow miraculously in the last five years it gets to a five hundred billion
04:51
dollars in savings. So it's a trillion dollars shipped from year five to year ten.
04:55
The CBO scores it differently, not as encouraging, and says it adds over three
05:01
trillion dollars in debt. So which is it? Does this bill save five hundred billion
05:06
over ten or does it add three trillion over ten? The truth is that anybody, that even a
05:13
person with a magic crystal ball, it's anybody's guess. Which brings us back to maybe
05:19
we have to judge the effects of the big not-so-beautiful bill by looking at what
05:24
happens to the debt next year. Supporters of the bill admit it adds two hundred and
05:30
seventy billion dollars to the debt next year. That's the only thing we know for
05:35
certain. We don't know what happens in year three, four, seven, eight, nine, ten, but we
05:40
know next year this bill will grow the deficit by two hundred and seventy billion
05:45
dollars. In addition, the bill increases the debt ceiling by five trillion dollars.
05:51
What does that mean? That is an admission that they know they aren't controlling the
05:57
deficit. They know that the ensuing years will add trillions more. So we're adding
06:02
two trillion this year, but they're anticipating, the authors of the bill
06:07
anticipating, adding more than two trillion next year. That doesn't sound at
06:11
all conservative to me and that's why I'm a gnome.
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