Jeremy Pena's 2025 Performance: A Deep Dive Analysis

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00:00Let's start with Jeremy Pena, who is one of my favorite value picks going into the year.

00:04I'm already thrilled, as you should all be, with Jeremy Pena's performance.

00:07Take a look at what he's done so far this year.

00:09A .322 batting average, 40 RBI, 11 homers, and 15 stolen bases.

00:15He's on pace for a really nice 20-30 season.

00:18I'll take that every day of the week.

00:19However, we've got to dig a little deeper here, because although he's sitting .322 right now,

00:24his expected batting average is somewhere around .290.

00:27That means, eventually, things are going to regress a little bit in that category.

00:32His slugging percentage is .489.

00:34His expected slug is .453.

00:37Also, when you look at some of the deeper metrics on baseball,

00:40his exit velocity, barrel rate, hard hit rate, are all kind of mediocre or underperforming.

00:47To me, Jeremy Pena is not a guy that I want to get rid of, necessarily, George,

00:50because I drafted him late.

00:51But I think you have to understand, if Jeremy Pena has been carrying your offense

00:54in the last couple weeks, maybe, just maybe, you should be looking to fortify that offense

00:59with a little bit more.

01:00What are your thoughts on the season that Pena's had,

01:02and some of these deeper metrics that are a little bit troubling when you start to dig deeper?

01:07Well, he was troubling.

01:08He came out of the game last night, taking that hit by a pitch in the ribs.

01:11I thought the injury was more serious than it actually may have ended up being here.

01:15He's no fracture there.

01:16Probably will not play today, so we'll keep that in mind.

01:19Maybe get a pitch hit opportunity.

01:21Nothing wrong with giving him a day off, as long as the injury's not severe there.

01:23But Pena did come out of the game last night, after two at-bats were getting hit.

01:27Shortstop was pretty deep, so you probably have him as a middle infielder, if you have him.

01:30He's already paid off for you.

01:32He's had a fantastic season.

01:33He's one of the reasons why Houston's been able to withstand the loss of not only Kyle Tucker,

01:37who's going to hit the Cubs, but Jordan Alvarez, who's on the back of a milk carton.

01:41Are you going to see him anytime soon?

01:43So they needed someone to step up here.

01:45All right, with Christian Wolcott getting over the slow start here.

01:48Isaac Pereira, same thing.

01:49And Pena's been that guy, so he's been a catalyst for this team here.

01:53Bottom line is this.

01:55I'm not looking to trade for him.

01:59I'm going to need to see more.

02:00And when I say more, I mean it's next year more.

02:02I'm that guy who, you know, look at the back of a baseball cart,

02:05and I know what you're going to do as far as fantasy is concerned.

02:07He's not proven that to me yet.

02:09You know, so it is what it is here.

02:12But if someone's trying to move him, which I think you probably should do,

02:15it won't be to me.

02:16All right, let's talk about the next guy on the list,

02:19the guy you picked off the waiver wire, Javier Baez,

02:21who's had a pretty good season here, qualifies in a lot of spots,

02:24hitting .285 on the year, nine homers, 36 RBI.

02:27Okay, cool.

02:28Javier Baez, renaissance, except for the fact that baseball savant page is ice cold.

02:33It's blue everywhere.

02:34And that is not a good thing.

02:36It's expected batting average at .253.

02:38That's 30 points below that .285 mark.

02:42The OPS is at .784, but that's not going to hold.

02:45Again, the deeper metrics are screaming that Javier Baez can't sustain this.

02:49And considering what the recent seasons have looked like from Javier Baez,

02:52I would agree.

02:53So, George, I'm out on Javier Baez.

02:55He has a big sell high for me right now.

02:56How about you?

02:58You already got in the best of Javier Baez, right?

03:01It's got to be declining from here on out.

03:03It just has to be.

03:04I don't have much belief here.

03:05I don't have him anywhere.

03:06It didn't pick him up anywhere.

03:07I never really believed.

03:09As soon as I grab him, I know he's going to just fall apart, right?

03:11He's going to about 073 for the week here and do nothing for you.

03:15No, let him be someone else's problem.

03:16I want nothing to do with him.

03:18It's not all him.

03:19The ballpark is not conducive to hitting, right?

03:21It's a pitcher's ballpark there, unless you're really Riley Green,

03:24who's having a fantastic season.

03:25Hey, Gleyber Torres getting out of New York,

03:27having a nice season for them as well.

03:28But Javier Baez, no thank you.

03:31All right, I want to talk about Jonathan Aranda for a second,

03:33who also has been terrific this season for the Tampa Bay Rays.

03:36You look at the counting stats, 331 batting average, 42 RBI.

03:41I mean, that's been terrific.

03:42Aranda has been a big bat that they have needed in this lineup around Junior Caminero.

03:46So that's been spectacular.

03:48Now, his baseballs of my page is still really good.

03:51My only concern, and again, maybe it's minimal,

03:53is that if you look at the numbers, the 369 batting average at home

03:57versus just 279 on the road,

03:59the OPS is more than 100 points less on the road.

04:03And the Rays have a ton of road games coming up

04:06because of the way the schedule lays out for them in the summer.

04:08Is this the time to at least kick the tires on what you could get for Aranda,

04:12especially if you get an overpay based on how good he has been,

04:15the way the schedule looks like it is laid out, George?

04:18What could you get for Aranda?

04:21We're not talking about a sexy name here.

04:23There's a lot of fantasy players in your average home.

04:26Who?

04:27Aranda.

04:28Oh, Tampa.

04:29Oh, you know, that kind of guy.

04:30It's not there.

04:31I don't think you're going to be able to get what you want for him here.

04:33Now, you're right.

04:34I think it's, what, 52?

04:35As soon as late, it's 52 of 83 games on the road here.

04:37So those numbers are going to be a little different.

04:39Aranda is that left-hander taking advantage of Steinbrenner Field,

04:43which is made for left-handers.

04:44Yankee Stadium is a mile after.

04:45So, yeah, those numbers should change some up.

04:49But, you know, 280 on the road, pretty good.

04:52It's still helping you out fantasy-wise, right?

04:54So I'm kind of, I'm not dying to get rid of him.

04:56Once again, you probably have him as a corner infielder.

04:58Maybe he's your DH.

04:59You know, he's probably not your starting first base,

05:01but he certainly could be, depending on who you had there.

05:03So I'm not looking to get rid of him.

05:05That's what I'm trying to go with you here.

05:07If someone wants to overpay me, absolutely, we can chat.

05:10Or even pay me even.

05:11But I'm not looking to just sell this.

05:12Oh, I think he's going to be terrible.

05:13I don't think that.

05:14I think he's going to be okay, Joe.

05:16Okay.

05:17Not great, but okay.

05:18So I'm not looking to get rid of the guy.

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