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00:00The 2025 NBA Finals continues on this Friday.
00:04It is game number four in downtown Indianapolis.
00:08Game Bridge Fieldhouse, the site for our fourth game of this championship set in DRS
00:14for the only time in this NBA Finals, just one day off between games.
00:19Game three and another Indiana outright win as a hefty home dog was on Wednesday.
00:25Game four, right away on this Friday.
00:29Of course, here are the odds to be crowned an NBA champion and hoist that Larry O'Brien trophy.
00:35You might think, all right, after three games, you see a team at a minus 235 favorite place.
00:41That team is up two to one, right?
00:43Nope.
00:44The Thunder in a hole and yet still a strong favorite at minus 235.
00:50The Pacers are getting a game and a half, but with some pretty hefty chalk in that series spread,
00:55which is interesting, DRS, because if Indiana can at least get to seven,
01:00even if they come out on the losing end of the NBA Finals, they will cover that number.
01:06And we are expecting from the odds perspective to see the entire distance of this NBA Finals.
01:11The most likely outcome, seven games at plus 106.
01:16The Pacers hold a 2-1 series lead, entering yet another home game in Indy on this Friday night in game number four.
01:25DRS, how do you see this series situation?
01:28Yeah, it's a great series situation.
01:30And also, you're still getting a lot of respect here from the odds makers on the Thunder, and rightfully so.
01:34The algorithms still add up.
01:35Ah, sooner than later, the better team is eventually going to take over.
01:37Well, that better happen.
01:38But also understand this from a series perspective.
01:41Both of these teams have to absolutely love only a one-day break.
01:44Number one, the Pacers, we want to keep that momentum here.
01:47We're at home.
01:47I can't wait to get on that home court.
01:49And also, just to get the bad taste out of your mouth for the Thunder,
01:51you don't want to linger in a city two extra days here.
01:54Oh, no, we lost.
01:55What happens if we lose game number four?
01:57Like, you want to get back on that court as soon as possible, and we're going to do that,
02:00which sets up a really good game here.
02:02So, if you're looking for the series prices, the minus 235 does still seem a little bit steep
02:06because we're not coming at this, you know, from an objective that says games one, two, and three.
02:12My God, Oklahoma City was up 30 points in each one of those games.
02:15They just didn't score in the fourth quarter.
02:17Eventually, they'll do that.
02:19You can't tell me that we're watching these games saying, like, you know, OKC just was playing bad basketball.
02:24No, like, Indiana's playing good basketball against a really good basketball team,
02:28and nobody's surprised that they're actually up 2-1 outside of your pre-series thoughts
02:32on what the series was supposed to be.
02:33But watching these games, there's no overmatched basketball team just getting lucky winning some games here.
02:39Like, Indiana's in this thing to win this.
02:41Now, the interesting part's going to be how it happens tonight because this series certainly goes two different ways.
02:46A victory for Oklahoma City, they'll be way back into the driver's seat.
02:49But a victory for the Pacers, then you start saying,
02:52who actually is really the better team here in the playoffs?
02:55Because the Pacers have had this MO all the way through as is.
02:58Nobody talking about them until they're in a position to close out a team
03:02we didn't think they'd be able to close out.
03:04Minus 235, which was minus 230 yesterday.
03:06So, still the public buying in on the Thunder, and I agree.
03:09I think the Thunder do win tonight.
03:10We'll get into that just a little bit later.
03:12But from a series perspective, heavy favorites still on the Thunder.
03:15And they don't even have home court advantage, and they don't even have the series lead,
03:19which is the wild part about it.
03:21Here is the series situation.
03:24Of course, when you look at those odds, the Thunder's still a strong favorite at minus 235.
03:30But now I think we start to ask the question, are the algorithms, are the power ratings,
03:35are the models just flat out wrong?
03:38The Pacers have defied the odds the entirety of this magical playoff run.
03:42They are 9-4 straight up when booked as an underdog.
03:47It is the best win percentage at .692 of any team booked as an underdog in at least 10 playoff games
03:54in a single postseason in the history of the association.
03:58They have defied expectation countless times.
04:02Are they continuing to do it here, not just ahead of Game 4, but for the entirety of this series?
04:08And, Donnie, that was the main theme.
04:10We question entering this set.
04:12Can Indiana even make this a competitive series?
04:16Can the Pacers force a sixth game?
04:18We know that to be the case, although Indiana could technically win this in only five.
04:23Now the question is, can Indiana defy the odds again and win an NBA championship outright despite being the hefty dog?
04:33And for OKC to make good on that minus 235 price DRS, they're going to have to win on the road.
04:39They're a six-point favorite entering game number four tonight in Indianapolis.
04:44The Thunder, 4-4 straight up away from OKC.
04:48And 0-8, that's a goose egg.
04:510-8 against the spread as a road favorite.
04:54Yeah, the mindset here, right?
04:56It's like, wait a second.
04:57I just watched the Pacers win on their home court.
04:58That game was four and a half to five points here.
05:01The Pacers won.
05:01Now we go back for game number four and we increase that spread.
05:05Oh, the mind games that the FanDuel Sportsbook and other books are playing with us.
05:09I'm buying into those mind games, man.
05:11I'm buying in.
05:12I think DRS, from a handicapping perspective, that is directly.
05:18All right, as we get you ready for game number four of the 2025 NBA Finals,
05:23the question for all of you out there was rather simple.
05:27What's the best?
05:27What's the best bet for this decisive game four tonight in Indy?
05:32That was the question and fade the public.
05:42It's always interesting, DRS, right, how the public is viewing the odds because they are not the ones with the power ratings in large part.
05:50They're not the ones with the algorithms that remain steady as the odds makers in our sportsbook operators have them game to game based on the large sample size.
05:59You would expect the public to be very reactionary to what we are seeing, maybe even questioning the very odds that we have.
06:07The Thunder remain a road favorite, even a stronger road favorite entering our fourth game of the finals tonight.
06:14Now laying six after being a five and a half point favorite for game number three.
06:20That total has dropped to 226 and a half, the lowest number so far of this championship set as well.
06:27So how is the public approaching game number four, understanding its significance for OKC to even this up and force a best of three,
06:37basically with home four advantage in five and seven.
06:42But the public also being like, why would the Thunder be a better favorite, a stronger favorite for a game when they lost by nine
06:51and got routed in the fourth quarter by Indiana in game number three?
06:56DRS, our Fade the Public poll is fascinating from that perspective.
07:00It is.
07:00A little bit more of the public backing the Pacers as the dog, about 38.4%.
07:06As I see the updated votes right now, 37.4% though on the Thunder as the road favorite over under 11 and 13% respectively.
07:18DRS, did you fade the public and what do you make of their responses?
07:21Yeah, technically I did fade the public by just about 1%, which is tremendous here.
07:26And also understand this, when you know the odds makers get it right, Thunder minus six, 37.4%.
07:33Pacers plus six, 38.4%.
07:36Over 226 and a half, 11.1%.
07:39Under 226 and a half, 13.1%.
07:42Like this is one of those games where, yes, if your eyes are deceiving you, this is a tough one to get under.
07:47But having said that, I'm actually surprised that the public, based on what we put out there at SportsGrid,
07:53is saying the Pacers slightly by just 1%.
07:57I would have thought that would have been more because usually the public glomps onto, let me understand this.
08:03Game one and game number two, 10 point plus dogs here.
08:06They won one of those games.
08:07Game number three, let's just say five point dog.
08:10They won that game outright.
08:12Game number four, I'm getting six points in this one.
08:15I don't even know if I need the points.
08:17Just give me the Pacers.
08:18So I'm surprised the Pacers aren't, let's just say, 50% or so higher here, taking that, you know, extreme advantage as opposed to the Thunder.
08:26So I got a lot of respect for the people, including myself, who clicked that button there for the Thunder.
08:31How about that?
08:33Yeah, DRS, I think it's a really, really good point.
08:36And I think it is fair to question, either from a public or just regular handicapping perspective,
08:42are the odds just flat out wrong?
08:44We can understand why OKC remains such an optimistic favorite.
08:49We know how great the Thunder have been in this postseason, the NBA's best team in the regular season as well,
08:55on track to be a historic team in the history of the association with an NBA championship.
09:02But they're now trailing in this series, and Indiana has defied the expectation and the odds all along.
09:09The Pacers, of course, 9-4 outright as an underdog in this playoff run.
09:15They have been a home dog three times.
09:17They have won two of those three games straight up.
09:21And Oklahoma City, if they are going to be crowned an NBA champ, DRS is going to have to win a game,
09:27at least one on the road, where they are 4-4 this playoff run, 0-8 against the spread.
09:33They have been at least a three-point favorite in every single road game.
09:38Rick Carlisle said after game number two, when Shea Gilgis-Alexander scored 34 points for OKC,
09:45hey, just pencil the guy in for 34 on Wednesday night as well, or, yeah, Wednesday night in game number three.
09:52Not 34, only 24 for SGA.
09:55Tyrese Halliburton, a 22.11 assist, double-double, burying four triples.
10:02The Pacers are now 20-1 in games that Halliburton has had 20-plus points and 10-plus assists in his time in Indiana.
10:11DRS, how do you compare the two stars on display here on this Friday night?
10:16I expect great efforts out of both of them.
10:18I look at Halliburton at 18-1⁄2.
10:19If you want to win this game, he's got to do similar to what he did in game number three.
10:22But also SGA, love to hear him at the post-game press conference, like, hey, we're not panicked here.
10:26I've got to play better, and I know that.
10:28You understand this.
10:29SGA will be shooting 20-plus times from the field tonight.
10:32He should be able to get his number into the mid-30s there.
10:35I expect a pretty good flow.
10:36But also, you know what else I expect?
10:38Under 22, 26-1⁄2 as well.
10:41How about that?
10:42You would think, DRS, that probably favors the Thunder if they can slow down Indiana.
10:46Nobody in the first two games for the Pacers had scored 20-plus points.
10:52Pascal Siakam also got north of 20 points with 21.
10:56His prop tonight, 19-1⁄2.
10:58Jalen Williams was OKC's leading scorer with 26 in game number three.
11:02By far his most efficient game in the NBA Finals.
11:06But DRS, we know the balance and the depth for the Pacers was the difference.
11:10The bench outscored OKC's 49-18 in game three.
11:14More on the early line next.
11:15Sorry, Donnie right side always has that uncanny ability to say something with three seconds as we're returning from commercial.
11:25That is so outlandish, it's hard not to react.
11:28Anyway, we're back live right here on this Friday on the early line ahead of game number four of the NBA Finals.
11:34And joining us now, it is Brian Fonseca for a full-blown breakdown and preview of what we are seeing tonight in Indianapolis.
11:42And what remains, of course, Fonseca throughout this championship set.
11:46As always, we appreciate the time.
11:49Thanks for being here on TEL.
11:51Absolutely.
11:52Anytime.
11:52Let's dive right into what we will see before game number four.
11:58Fonseca, your reactions to what we have seen so far in this championship set.
12:03Oklahoma City, such a hefty favorite, entering this series.
12:07The question wasn't so much, can the Pacers win an NBA championship?
12:12It was, can the Pacers even keep this thing close enough and competitive enough to force maybe a sixth game, let alone a seventh?
12:21Well, now Indiana holds a 2-1 series lead.
12:25And despite Oklahoma City remaining greater than a $2 favorite at minus $2.35, I think that question now has shifted, Fonseca, to can Indiana win the entire thing outright as a series underdog?
12:40So that's the question I pose to you, Brian.
12:42Can the Pacers triumph and be crowned an NBA champ?
12:46I have one, two, three, four, five Pacers futures in terms of – and two of them already cashed because one of them was to win the East and one of them was their win total.
13:00And the rest are for them in some sort of way to win the finals.
13:04I did take Pacers in six because they were giving me plus 570.
13:08I did take Pacers in seven because they were giving me plus 710.
13:11This is after game three, by the way.
13:13And before game three, I took Pascal Siakam finals MVP at plus 1900.
13:17So I could say that I'm in the tank for them.
13:20What I'm seeing is – and this is sort of the issue I'm having with how this series is being talked about.
13:28Oklahoma City is better in a vacuum.
13:32Vacuum doesn't matter in a seven-game series.
13:33We've seen more upsets lately than we did probably pre-COVID, I would say, since around that period we've gotten – I mean, the Heat went on a run to the finals at that point.
13:43They were a good team, but I think that surprised some people, me less so.
13:49And looking at this series and looking at these playoffs, Indy is the best fourth-quarter team in the NBA.
13:57I don't know if that was the case before the playoffs, but they've proven that they're the best fourth-quarter team in the NBA when it matters.
14:05So why is the best fourth-quarter team in the NBA plus 194 with a 2-1 lead and with home court in game four?
14:19That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
14:21I get that Oklahoma City is great, best defense we've seen in a really long time.
14:27Some people are going back to the 0-4 Pistons.
14:30Some people are going back to the 2014 Spurs or whatever it is, like whatever defense you want to choose.
14:37But I think Indiana is still, still like a value play.
14:43And like I want something Thunder-related, but you started the series by giving me minus 750 on the money line.
14:52They lose game one.
14:53It didn't really change much.
14:55They win game two, and then it's like, oh, order is restored.
14:58They're back to like minus 600.
15:00And it's like, okay, I guess I'm just going to bet the Pacers because I think they could legitimately win this series.
15:05And you still are valuing the Thunder like they're the 96 Bulls.
15:09It's pretty impressive how we're watching it, too, in real time with the Pacers because like Ben and I talk about so many times, like it's not as if like OKC, right?
15:18Brian was like, well, they've been up 25 points in all those games and just collapsed in the fourth quarter.
15:22Like the Pacers, nobody's watching the Pacers saying they can't hang around with OKC.
15:25And quite frankly, they have been the better team.
15:27But how do you judge now where you say the first three games and, yes, two to one series lead for Indiana, game number four in their own building.
15:34We were looking at spreads of four and a half and five for game number three.
15:37Now we see spreads of six and higher depending on what outlet you're looking at for tonight as the expectations with the algorithm.
15:43It should be a win for OKC.
15:44How do you expect this game to start?
15:46And also putting the pressure on OKC.
15:48They can't go down 3-1.
15:50I don't care how good they are, Brian.
15:51They're not going to beat Indiana three straight games if they lose this game tonight.
15:55Right.
15:55And I also don't think if they win, it automatically means they're going to win the series because why would?
16:01See, if Indiana wins this game, I think Oklahoma City is going to smash them in game five.
16:07But I still think Indiana will finish them off.
16:09If Oklahoma City wins this game and it's 2-2 going into game five, I'm not all of a sudden like, yeah, OK, we're good.
16:19Oklahoma City's got this because Indy could just win game five on the road.
16:23Like Rick Carlisle, the way that Indiana operates is they're preparing for a 12-round fight.
16:29They're not preparing to knock you out in the fourth round.
16:32They're prepared for these series to go long, to have ebbs and flows, to show their cards and pull back some cards and show their cards.
16:39Like this is why they got stomped out in Madison Square Garden in game five with the 3-1 lead.
16:44And it was like, eh, we'll see y'all in game six.
16:47And did they see them in game six?
16:49Like this is the thing.
16:50And in looking at this series, and this is my biggest issue with Oklahoma City from what I've seen, other than the fourth quarter stuff, they haven't done the OKC thing where it's an avalanche of steals that become points.
17:03They've gotten the avalanche of steals.
17:05They did it in game one.
17:06They haven't gotten the avalanche of steals that become points off of turnovers, where it's just pick six, pick six, pick six.
17:14And it's five steals that leads into 12 points because there's a three-pointer mixed in there and an and one and a made free throw, but five field goals off of the five steals.
17:23And it happens within like a 90-second span of NBA basketball.
17:27We haven't seen that kind of flurry yet.
17:31And just because it's OKC, Vegas is like, yeah, it'll happen.
17:35And I'm looking at the series like, Indy is doing a really good job, really good job of not turning the ball over.
17:43Or if they are turning the ball over, they're getting back on defense and not allowing OKC to do what they do.
17:49And if OKC can't do what they do, I don't know if they're going to win this series.
17:53I think it's fair to understand why the odds makers have these expectations for Oklahoma City based on 19 playoff games, 82 in the regular season.
18:04And being a historically great team based on what the Thunder have done so far.
18:10But the idea now is, are the odds makers just flat out wrong despite what their algorithms and models are telling them?
18:17Just for some context to what Fonseca was saying about the Pacers in the fourth quarter.
18:22Indiana is plus 27 in the fourth.
18:26OKC is plus 33 in the other three quarters.
18:29DRS, we send you to the Moneyline, my friend.
18:32Have a great weekend.
18:33Fonseca sticks around for more Hoot Talk next.
18:36A critical and significant game four on this Friday in the NBA Finals in Indianapolis.
18:43The Pacers a home underdog once again.
18:45But Indiana has won outright nine times in 13 games.
18:50Booked as a dog throughout this magical playoff run.
18:54OKC yet to cover on the road.
18:56They've been booked as at least a three-point favorite in all eight road games.
19:01They are now 0 for Goose Egg, Zilch, 0 and 8 against the spread.
19:06Fonseca, let's dive even deeper looking at the individuals tonight.
19:10Based on who you ultimately believe comes out with at least an outright victory in game number four.
19:17Who is that one player that has to step up above all else?
19:20Oh man, it'd be nice to see Chet Holmgren be consistent because from a game-to-game basis, I don't feel like I know what I'm going to get.
19:30Now, last game he was productive.
19:33I think he could have been more impactful, but he was productive.
19:37But there's a lot of ebbs and flows to Chet Holmgren where I think he's the guy, for me, I would want to see him have a big game.
19:44And then I feel better about OKC because in this game, I did play OKC, but in the first half, it's minus three and a half.
19:50They've covered in a similar spot against Denver game four, but they didn't cover famously the full game because they haven't covered a full road game, a full road game spread at all in this playoffs.
20:03I think they're 0 and 8 at this point.
20:06Same thing against Minnesota.
20:07They had that game three whooping that they lost to Minnesota by a million points.
20:14And then in game four, they went out, they covered in the first half, but then the game got dicey and they barely, barely eked by.
20:22Like it was actually, I remember it being a backdoor Minnesota cover.
20:25It was like where they lost by three and it was three and a half or they lost by two and it was two and a half, one or the other.
20:30But OKC did cover in the first half in a couple of these spots.
20:34And also the other thing is Indy with their fourth quarter success in the postseason, like we have to factor in, hey, they could come back again.
20:41OKC to win the first half, Indy to win the full game is plus 710 available right now.
20:47Like that's something that I think is also worth considering, even though I think OKC should win this, but I feel much more comfortable betting them in the first half than the full game.
20:55It's a really good point, right?
20:57We talked about those splits quarter to quarter, Indiana has been better when it is mattered most in the most important quarter, that being the final 12 minutes, that fourth and final.
21:07But OKC had a 12-point lead at the break in game one, an 18-point lead at the break in game two.
21:13They were trailing by four at the break in game number three, but were up eight after the opening quarter and as many as nine early in the second.
21:21Shea Gilgis Alexander, his points prop, 33 and a half, 18 and a hook on the other side for Tyrese Halliburton, who had 22, 11 and nine boards, one rebound shy of a triple-double in game number three.
21:34Jalen Williams was OKC's leading scorer in game number three with 26.
21:39Pascal Siakam got north of 20 for the first time in this set with 21.
21:45And then one final point before we ask Fonseca a question about the New York Knicks head coaching search.
21:50Benedict Matherin, of course, 27 points for Indiana off the bench.
21:55The Pacers' leading scorer in game three.
21:58His points prop tonight, 10 and a half.
22:01Fonseca had a completely changed pace here in the final minute and a half of this segment.
22:06Outside of what we are seeing here in the finals, of course, one of the main stories this week has been the New York Knicks and pretty much getting ghosted or rejected by calling a lot of teams around the NBA and asking to speak with a current head coach.
22:21The Bulls said no.
22:23The T-Wolves said no.
22:24The Rockets said no.
22:25The Mavericks, with Jason Kidd thought by many to be the frontrunner, said no.
22:30Even the Hawks and Quinn Snyder said absolutely not.
22:33Fonseca, with access denied in all five of these spots, where does this leave the New York Knicks in their head coaching search?
22:42So it's interesting because I think with this search, the main thing that stands out to me, Ben, is not that they're getting denied over and over.
22:54Because we know across sports, you ask for permission to interview other teams' head coaches.
22:59Like, that's not an abnormal occurrence.
23:01What's interesting to me is that we know all of this and that it's getting out constantly and it doesn't benefit the Knicks, which means other teams seem to be leaking out, hey, we said no to them wanting to interview our head coach.
23:19Why is that?
23:22I don't know.
23:23But maybe the Knicks don't have a lot of fans around the league.
23:26Maybe the ownership doesn't have a lot of fans around the league.
23:29I don't know what it is.
23:30But I think that them going about their coaching search, like, whatever.
23:36Like, this could be part of phase one.
23:38Then they're on to phase two.
23:39They interview assistants.
23:40They interview all these other candidates, whatever, whatever.
23:42But as far as this goes, like, the reason it's getting out, that's what I'm most interested in.
23:49Brian Fonseca, always on it.
23:51Have a great weekend.
23:52Have a great weekend, all of you.
23:55The Only Line returns on Monday.