2024 Emirates NBA Cup Finals: Thunder vs Bucks Showdown

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00:00A championship on the line tonight in Las Vegas. It is the

00:07second ever in second annual NBA in season competition. The

00:132024 Emirates NBA Cup tonight in Las Vegas in Sin City

00:19between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Milwaukee Bucks.

00:23The Thunder, a five-point favorite to win the cup tonight

00:27with a total of 215 and a hook. Joe, we have reached the

00:32stage. The championship of the second ever in season

00:36competition around the association. These games have

00:40been incredible. The atmospheres have felt the intensity of a

00:44playoff matchup and with a title at stake tonight in Las

00:48Vegas, what are you expecting to see? Yeah, I expect a blow

00:53out if we're being honest here. I think OKC runs them off the

00:57court here, Ben. I just, I don't see that the energy on

01:00the defensive side of the ball against Giannis is going to be

01:04over the top. I think that they are, they're going to force

01:08anybody else to try to make some shots here and quite

01:12honestly, I don't trust the Milwaukee defense to even come

01:14remotely close to slowing the Oklahoma City Thunder down

01:18offensively. I think they'll get what they want. I think

01:22Hartenstein's set to have a absolutely monster game and I

01:27think ultimately it's going to be fun to watch back and forth

01:31until Oklahoma City just wears down the Milwaukee Bucks here,

01:36who by the way, have their big three all listed as

01:40questionable 24 hours ago. We'll see if there's anything

01:45more to that, but I mean, just I want everyone to watch this

01:49tonight, Ben, and then think what would this team be like if

01:51Chet Holmgren was on the court. Yeah, just keep that in

01:55mind. They already, they already are the Western

01:57Conference favorites. They already have the second best

02:00price to win the NBA championship. We expected OKC

02:04to play in monumental games like this one entering this

02:08year. Oklahoma City has lived up to that billing. Joe,

02:13although they might not win the cup tonight, if you are

02:16correct, and as the odds makers expect with the Thunder laying

02:19five points in Las Vegas, the Bucks have used the NBA Cup to

02:24resurrect their season. They entered their first game in

02:27group action against Toronto as a two and eight basketball team

02:33in 2024-25. They have won 12 of their previous 15 to get to

02:39this stage tonight. Now, I do also want to talk about the

02:43total 215 and a hook is where the number stands right now. We

02:47have talked about the intensity, the atmospheres of

02:50these games. Every other game throughout a run to the NBA Cup

02:54has counted to your regular season record, right? We are

02:56trying to incentivize the regular season in the NBA. This

03:00game does not, but the reason I bring up the total is because

03:03that intensity has been there. We have seen great defense. Both

03:07of these teams in their semifinal Saturday showdowns

03:11in Las Vegas played well to the under. OKC limited Houston

03:17to just 96 points. How much offense do we see tonight in

03:22Sin City? I think you are going to see exactly the same thing.

03:26I mean, listen, OKC is not going to want to get into some

03:30sort of three-ball contest here with Lillard on the other side.

03:37What I do think is that whoever you think is going to lose this

03:40game, you should probably look at their team total under

03:44because I just don't see it happening. The Thunder have a

03:47million long athletic wins to defend and throw at Damian

03:53Lillard, Middleton, AJ Green, you name it. I think they are

03:57going to force probably, it is just going to be Giannis or

04:01Bust at some point in this game. I like his point prop to go

04:05over here tonight, but I just don't see it being enough

04:09because of the defensive effort by OKC. I don't think this is

04:13going to be an up-tempo game by any stretch, so I like OKC to

04:18win. I don't like Milwaukee to win this game, and I don't like

04:22their team total over. I'll look at their team total under as

04:25well. The Thunder won three teams along with the Cavs and

04:29the Celtics to get to the 20-win benchmark already this season.

04:32As I've shared, Milwaukee using the NBA Cup after a 2-8 start

04:36to now be 14-11, so they're three games above 500, but OKC

04:42has just been dynamite all year long. In fact, Joe, in terms of

04:46covering numbers, the Thunder are the second-best cover team

04:49in the NBA since the beginning of last season, a 58.6% ATS

04:54mark. The only team better, the Magic. Orlando is the only team

04:58at 60% or higher in terms of that cover percentage in the

05:03last year and a half in the NBA. The Bucs have not been an

05:07underdog frequently as they have started to play better

05:10basketball in this 15-game span that Milwaukee has won 12 times.

05:15Just twice a dog. They have covered in both, winning

05:19outright one time. OKC enters this game overall having won

05:23five consecutive, covering in all five, a favorite in all

05:28five. Now let's talk about those point props and the

05:31performers that you alluded to earlier. OKC certainly has that

05:36perimeter length to frustrate Damian Lillard, who has the

05:38second-highest prop of 22.5 for Milwaukee. Giannis, the highest

05:43for the Bucs at 30.5, but the highest number for Oklahoma

05:46City, that is Shea Gilgis Alexander at 32 and a hook. I do

05:51not remember the last time, Joe, that Shea Gilgis Alexander

05:55played in an NBA game without a point prop around 28.5 to 32

06:00and a hook. He lives in this margin because of his

06:04consistency. What do you expect out of the Thunder in terms of

06:08their offensive output tonight? Yeah, I think it's going to be

06:12led by, well, you know who, right? SGA here, 32 and a half

06:16points. It's acceptable, Ben, because I think it's going to be

06:22very difficult when he gets out in a transition for the

06:25Milwaukee Bucs, who are, by the way, the oldest team, I believe,

06:28right now outside of the Lakers in the NBA. So they are not

06:33going to want to run with Oklahoma City, who has one of

06:37the youngest rosters in there. So I think Hartenstein's going

06:40to be able to feast here tonight. And I do believe SGA

06:45is, this could be his big shining moment here to win the

06:49cup, come out and be absolutely dominant and be at the free

06:54throw line a lot. That wouldn't shock me either. As he was by

06:58the way, in the semifinal victory over the Rockets on

07:01Saturday, 15 times he made 14. He had a game high 32 points. He

07:06had 39 a week ago in the quarterfinal matchup against the

07:10Dallas Mavericks. He has had at least 26 points in every NBA

07:15Cup game, group play, quarterfinal, semifinal so far

07:19for OKC. Are you getting a discount on Jalen Williams at

07:2322 and a half? Not necessarily. He has had at least 18

07:28in the last two knockout, win or go home type games in the

07:32NBA Cup, but 20 against Houston on Saturday, 18 a week ago

07:37against the Mavericks. Did have 28 to clinch the group for OKC

07:42in group play action. Now two weeks ago against the Utah

07:46Jazz. A lot at stake tonight. It should be a very fun game.

07:50Joe, let's talk beyond the NBA Cup, right? These teams using

07:54this as a springboard. Again, the Thunder expected to be

07:58in a spot like this, but not just for an NBA Cup, but also a

08:02Western Conference crown in the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Oklahoma

08:06City second best price to win the NBA Championship behind the

08:10reigning title winners in Boston. The short favorites

08:13already to win the Western Conference title. It feels

08:16fitting Joe to see OKC with those short numbers. And it

08:21should and you know they are one of these teams that's going

08:24to be around Ben well into the next decade. However, you

08:30can't get me to discount Donchick and Kyrie and Dallas

08:35again and what they're doing. Styles make fights. OKC should

08:39be the favorite, but boy there's a lot of basketball still to be

08:43played. Plus the trade deadline is now open. Be very

08:46interesting to see who loads up to beat them. Plus 175, the

08:51number for Oklahoma City, Luka Doncic and the Mavericks as you

08:54alluded to second shortest price at plus 550 Milwaukee

08:5811 to one in the Eastern Conference, where it already

09:02feels like a tier of two between the Cavs and the Celtics.

09:05Boston already minus money at minus 110 to win the Eastern

09:09Conference title again. Joe and Harry as always your services

09:13here on a Tuesday on the early line are highly appreciated.

09:17Enjoy the rest of your day.

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