NBA Finals Best Bets: OKC Strong Favorite for Game 3

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00:00All right, DRS, the hard and quick transition to the NBA Finals.

00:04Game number three is tomorrow in Indianapolis inside Cambridge Fieldhouse.

00:09The Thunder equalized with a 16-point win in game number two, 123-107.

00:16OKC, a minus 550 favorite, now to win that Larry O'Brien trophy

00:21and be crowned an NBA champion for the first time in their 17 years in Oklahoma City.

00:27DRS' first two games, Indiana steals game number one in historic comeback fashion.

00:33OKC shows its resolve in game number two.

00:37To you so far, DRS, what has been the biggest storyline of the 2025 NBA Finals?

00:43The fact that we're one-to-one heading back to Indiana, like I think that's the key ingredient.

00:47The expectations based on the odds makers and most people's opinion was

00:50this wasn't going to be a very competitive series.

00:53It should be 2-0, and maybe the Pacers can make a series out of it by winning one of two games

00:58on their home floor to at least get us to a game number five.

01:00Now, all of a sudden, we automatically have a game number five

01:03because Indiana did win one of those first two games on the road, and it was game number one.

01:07Like, you understand this from a viewing perspective.

01:10Once we get to that basketball game, and let's just say it's the Oklahoma City Thunder

01:14winning that game, going up 2-1 in that series.

01:16The series is de facto over at this point.

01:18I still think the Thunder win this series even if the Indiana Pacers win game number three,

01:22because then I do think that Oklahoma City will come back and win game number four.

01:25Then it's a short sprint, best of three, two games in Oklahoma City's building.

01:29But just from the thought process of the public and buying into it,

01:33we really want to see the Indiana Pacers put up a fight.

01:35And from those first two games, Ben, double-digit spreads effectively in games,

01:39winning games number two.

01:40Game number three, you're now seeing the fives.

01:42But understand this.

01:43Those fours that were opening up here in New Jersey have quickly turned the fives

01:46and other outlets at five and a half.

01:48The expectation still, though, even though the spread is in half,

01:50that it's supposed to be a victory for OKC.

01:53And we talked about it yesterday, DRS.

01:56The early money, 96% of the money on those spread bets.

02:00Backing OKC is a four, four and a half point favorite.

02:04Move the line up to five for game number three tomorrow night inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

02:09But now it's only about 85% of the money on the spread backing OKC.

02:15Here are those series odds for the NBA Finals.

02:19Again, the Thunder, minus 550.

02:21Outright to win that Larry O'Brien trophy.

02:24Maybe here are not the...

02:25OK, that's the correct score odds.

02:27We'll get to it in just a matter of moments.

02:29I'm going to ask you, DRS, for your best bets for the remainder of the NBA Finals.

02:34Next.

02:34The NBA Finals returns to our lives tomorrow.

02:47Game number three in Indianapolis.

02:49A change of venue for the first time in this championship set.

02:52The Pacers will host an NBA Finals game for the first time since 2000.

02:58That was 25 years ago.

02:59The Thunder DRS, a minus 550 outright favorite to win that NBA championship.

03:04You see the series spread.

03:06OKC laying a game and a half.

03:08Pretty chalky number to lay it at minus 152.

03:12But the most likely outcome in terms of the duration of this NBA Finals, only five games at plus 154.

03:20Now, for Oklahoma City to cover as a game and a half favorite in the series spread,

03:25they would have to win in six games at most.

03:29Now we go to the series correct score odds.

03:32For OKC to win in five, that's plus 180.

03:36The Pacers still technically have the chance to win in five games.

03:39You see how long that expectation is here for Indiana.

03:43Their shortest number is plus 980 in six.

03:47Every price on the Thunder to win an NBA championship, five, six, or seven games is less than $3.

03:55So DRS, if you could make one wager right here right now ahead of game three in the NBA Finals

04:01on how the rest of this series plays out, what would it be?

04:06Yep, it wouldn't be on a side.

04:07And if I did take a side, it would be game six Pacers plus 980.

04:11If I did take a side again, it would be Thunder game six plus 290.

04:15But instead of just hoping that one of those two gets there and it's plus money,

04:18why not just take game number six?

04:19It's a plus 198 right now on the FanDuel Sportsbook.

04:22As I said again, I expected before this series started,

04:26maybe if one win came from the Indiana Pacers, it would actually come on their home court.

04:30They stole a game right now in OKC.

04:33So I still think they're going to win one game on their home court,

04:35which automatically gets you into a game six scenario at that point.

04:39Because from my end of it, I don't think it's going to be all right.

04:42It's one to one.

04:43Indiana wins game three.

04:44Indiana wins game number four.

04:46Indiana goes in and wins game number five in OKC.

04:48Hey, they're the NBA champions at this point.

04:50If they did that, that would be wild, crazily deserved.

04:52And I don't think anybody saw that one coming at that point.

04:54But for me, if we're one to one at home, Ben,

04:56I think we're going to be one to one here on the road, which means it's 2-2,

05:00which then means we have a winner that has to take place in game number three,

05:04which then gets us to game number four, which would be game number six.

05:07And away you go and you cash in that ticket.

05:09Because I do think the championship will be decided in game six.

05:13I do believe it's going to be the Thunder.

05:14But boy, that price point of plus 980.

05:16Let's just say Indiana stings them, right, in game number three.

05:19There's a good chance that they can win game number four.

05:21And then, of course, the kitchen sink game for OKC.

05:24And then, you know, if you're Indiana, you can't lose game number six.

05:26You don't have to game number seven.

05:28I think it sets up great for six games here,

05:30regardless of the winner at close to a 2-1 price here at the FanDuel Sportsbook.

05:35Over five and a half games, by the way,

05:37in terms of the over-under total games of the NBA Finals,

05:40has some pretty hefty juice at minus 192.

05:43It's like the series spread and the series over-under expects this to see at least six games.

05:49But all of the outcomes in terms of the total distance

05:52or the team to win an NBA championship and in how many games

05:56is more so now leaning to the Thunder in five,

05:59winning four straight after dropping game number one.

06:03So, DRS, if you think we get to six, let's focus on number three.

06:08Tomorrow night in Indy, it's the Pacers hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder.

06:13OKC is a five-point road favorite.

06:16We have already talked about where the betting public is starting to invest their money,

06:20heavily backing the Thunder at this moment.

06:23Total standing at 228 and a half.

06:26DRS, if we are going to see at least six games in the 2025 NBA Finals,

06:32is tomorrow night in game number three an absolute must-win for the Indiana Pacers at home?

06:39It absolutely is.

06:40It really is.

06:41Because you say, well, OK, it's still 2-1 at that point.

06:43They can win game number four.

06:44We get that.

06:45But you want to put the pressure back on OKC.

06:48OKC had the pressure in game number two.

06:50They handled that flawlessly.

06:51That was a wire-to-wire victory.

06:53Said, you know what?

06:53OK, deep breaths.

06:54We're 1-1.

06:55Let's go handle our business in Indiana.

06:57Now you go into Indiana and say, OK, if Indiana can steal game three,

07:00all of that pressure, I mean, what a vice grip that would be understanding.

07:04You should have one more game in Indy before you even get back home,

07:06and you can't afford to go down 3-1.

07:08I don't care how good Oklahoma City is.

07:10I do think they're going to win the series,

07:12and I think they can still win the series if they lose game number three.

07:14I'm not going to think they can win game this series, Ben,

07:16if they lose games three and four and say, well, now you've still got to win.

07:19That's still three straight victories you've got to have over the Pacers

07:22when the Pacers beat you the first three out of four games.

07:24You need that victory in game number three for Indiana to keep the pressure back on OKC.

07:29Because if Indiana wins game number three, the series isn't over.

07:32If Oklahoma City wins game number three, the series is over.

07:37NDRS, we have already shared, right, how great the Thunder have been

07:41at home throughout this playoff run.

07:43There is no doubt about that.

07:45But OKC on the road has yet to come throughout this postseason.

07:50The Thunder have not been nearly as good away from Oklahoma City

07:54in terms of how optimistic the odds are looking at OKC as of this moment.

08:01Other NBA news the rest of the summer next.

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