- 6/6/2025
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00:00It is now time for the scouting report from our coach, J.Y. James Young.
00:05J.Y., let's dive right in.
00:07As we have shared throughout this opening hour and here in hour two,
00:11this has been the theme for the Pacers in this magical postseason run.
00:14They have now pulled off a miraculous comeback at least once
00:18in all four of their series throughout this postseason.
00:22We know what Indiana did, trailing by 15 points
00:26with nine and a half minutes remaining in regulation,
00:28trailing by nine with 239 left in regulation
00:32to win by one, 111-110, courtesy of another game winner
00:36from Tyrese Halliburton in the clutch.
00:39My question to you is how does Indiana keep pulling this off?
00:44To quote my students, what the Hallie?
00:48I don't know what is happening.
00:49And maybe this has been, I don't know if this is a team of destiny.
00:53I don't know if they get every break in the world.
00:55I don't care because at the end of the day,
00:57I saw an interesting tweet this morning, right?
01:02The Thunder had 18 less turnovers, took three more free throws,
01:0615 more shots within four feet of the basket,
01:08had three less fouls, 15 point lead in the fourth quarter.
01:13The best player in the world arguably has 38 points,
01:16and you lose at home.
01:17Like, if I'm a coach and you told me all of that information,
01:21this is what I'm going to get out of my team.
01:24I'm saying, shh, we won by 20.
01:26Like, it was a walk in the park.
01:29But it's coaching.
01:30And it's the fact that this guy, Carlisle, continues,
01:34and I keep saying this, getting guys to believe and to believe.
01:38And it's different guys at different spots.
01:40I mean, I sat there and I took Lou Dort to lead the series in threes,
01:45and he's tied with Obi Toppin after the first game?
01:48Like, what's happening here?
01:51But it's about the fact that these guys play.
01:54They dig in.
01:55And I'm starting to feel like with all the shots,
01:57I mean, if we had, like, Big Shot Bob for Robert Horry,
02:02what are we calling Tyrese Halliburton?
02:04Because Big Shot Bob would give you, like, one of postseason?
02:07This guy's giving you three in three rounds.
02:11What a performance down the stretch by Halliburton.
02:13And the entirety of that team sticking together,
02:16staying to the plan,
02:17and shocking everyone in the fourth quarter again.
02:21Yeah, that was an amazing performance last night just to see them win.
02:24Now, let's talk about coaching mindset, too,
02:26because game one is out of the way.
02:28Heavy favorite in game number one.
02:29The Pacers were marked underdogs.
02:31They end up winning that game.
02:32But also, from a Pacers perspective,
02:34Rick Arley goes,
02:35we didn't even play well, Coach,
02:37and we won that basketball game.
02:39What is your mindset for the Pacers moving forward
02:41where you won a game,
02:42you were horrendous in the first half,
02:44and yet you still put out the victory?
02:46They stole home court.
02:48So, I mean,
02:49if you thought there was pressure on Oklahoma City in game one,
02:54and I know they said,
02:56oh, we've been here before.
02:58We get it.
02:59And this was Denver,
02:59and you hung 145 points,
03:02and maybe you'd do that again in game two.
03:04But you've taken home court.
03:06You were Carlisle.
03:06You're looking at your guys and say,
03:08all the pressure is off of us,
03:10and it's going to be,
03:11honestly, guys,
03:12rinse and repeat.
03:13I'm going to play my guys.
03:15I'm going to go through my rotation,
03:16and then we're going to figure it out as it goes.
03:19Everybody be ready.
03:21Everybody be locked in.
03:22I don't know who it's going to be.
03:24It could be you.
03:25Be ready to go.
03:27And just say,
03:28listen,
03:29let's get it to the end,
03:31and let's go steal it again.
03:32It's not like they haven't done it multiple times this full season.
03:36So, Rick Carlisle is in a great spot.
03:38We keep talking about this.
03:40This guy continues to deserve his flowers,
03:43because he's doing it time and time again for a long NBA career.
03:46A very long NBA career,
03:50and maybe underrated is how we can describe Rick Carlisle,
03:53and certainly how we should describe Tyrese Halliburton in those clutch moments,
03:58in all of those four miraculous comebacks for Indiana,
04:01against the Bucs in the series clincher,
04:04against the Cavs in game number two,
04:06against the Knicks in the opening game of the Eastern Conference Finals,
04:09in regulation,
04:10and of course,
04:11last night,
04:12what was the great common denominator?
04:14Tyrese Halliburton coming up with a clutch shot when it mattered most.
04:19So,
04:20that's the result of game one,
04:22and JY's takeaways.
04:24Now,
04:24what does it mean for the remainder of the NBA Finals?
04:27Do we have a series?
04:29Now,
04:31the Indiana Pacers steal game number one on the road in Oklahoma City,
04:35outright of the 2025 NBA Finals.
04:39The Pacers now eight and three straight up,
04:41as an underdog throughout this magical playoff run.
04:44They are seven and two away from Indianapolis.
04:48They are five and three in the eight games.
04:51They have trailed by at least 15 points at any juncture of that basketball contest.
04:57JY truly history defying and history making.
05:01That has been the story for Indiana on this playoff run.
05:05Will it be also odds defying from the NBA Finals expectations?
05:10Entering game number one,
05:12Oklahoma City was a minus 700.
05:15Outright favorite to hoist that Larry O'Brien trophy.
05:18OKC,
05:18still a hefty favorite,
05:20but now that price has been slashed in half.
05:22It is minus 330.
05:24JY,
05:25your prediction entering game number one yesterday,
05:28as we asked you,
05:29was the Thunder in five.
05:31That could still happen as the odds makers even have that price lower than plus 300.
05:38But Indiana winning game one last night,
05:41what does that do to your overall outlook for the rest of the NBA Finals?
05:45Do I need to say a prayer that I'm going to Oklahoma City wakes up
05:50and Indiana can't find that glass slipper?
05:53It's like,
05:53it's crazy because I was talking to a friend and they were like,
05:57why do you keep discounting the Pacers?
05:58I'm like,
05:59because this is a different animal or is it?
06:03You know,
06:03so to me,
06:04it's just a matter of Oklahoma City,
06:07you know,
06:07is going to rebound.
06:09You know,
06:10listen,
06:10one,
06:10one,
06:11tell me to the series that I think maybe minus 350,
06:14minus 400.
06:15So this is kind of more in line of what I thought.
06:18Maybe it should have been too much disrespect given to Indiana pre-series,
06:22but I do expect an adjustment made.
06:25I'm going to be honest.
06:26I was on with Kevin last night doing a game time decisions,
06:28Ben,
06:29and I did not like Mark Dagnall changing his starting lineup right there
06:36before and,
06:37and going with Kaysan,
06:38well,
06:39I think it was Kaysan Wallace who started lineup over Isaiah Hartenstein.
06:43And here's why.
06:44I believe the biggest advantage in my opinion,
06:49Oklahoma City has is going double big because if you go double big,
06:55you force Siakam to go guard Chet because you obviously know that Miles Turner's got to guard Hartenstein.
07:02And then you create something in the backcourt of where you go at Tyrese Halliburton or against going against him or who is undersized.
07:10By going small,
07:12then it allows the shifting of the lineup a little bit that allows everyone to be in place.
07:19So I thought that was almost like you play your strength first rather than go to the other team's strength.
07:26And I think that's a critical mistake that I thought that Mark Dagnall did.
07:30Now it got Isaiah Hartenstein unlocked and got him going a little bit because he was obviously,
07:35his numbers were way too low in his props.
07:37But I still think at the end of the day,
07:40you do what got you there.
07:42Don't change it.
07:43If you want to make a change,
07:44coach,
07:45change it after game one,
07:46change it after game two.
07:47Don't change it an hour before the series in this changing of your starting lineup.
07:51Now we take a look at the series prices here on the fan blue sports book because yesterday we're chiming in that minus seven fifties to minus seven hundreds.
07:58Now after a victory for the Indiana Pacers coach,
08:01we're finding the Oklahoma city thunder here at a minus three 30 price and a plus two 65 price for the Indiana Pacers.
08:07Still a heavy favorite for the thunder with expectations of a heavy game.
08:11Number two favorite.
08:12How do we see the series playing out now?
08:14Now that we saw the Indiana Pacers steal game.
08:16Number one,
08:17a wake up call for the thunder.
08:18Is there a chance to buy in on either one of these sides with these price points for you?
08:22Well,
08:23I think what's going to happen,
08:24Donnie,
08:24it's all going to depend on how game two looks.
08:26If you want to go ahead and take the minus three 30 on Oklahoma city.
08:29Oh,
08:29okay.
08:30You know,
08:31probably playing a series spread,
08:33but if Oklahoma city goes to what they did,
08:35like they did in Denver in game two,
08:36when it won by like 40 points,
08:38140 points,
08:39you know,
08:41on them,
08:42you're going to see that market shift because it's going to be a kind of a,
08:45what you have done for me lately.
08:46Obviously game three becomes a critical game because now this is where Oklahoma city
08:50can take back home court advantage here.
08:53And Indiana has not been as strong as home as they have been on the road.
08:57So to me,
08:57if you want to jump on right now with Oklahoma city thunder,
09:01it would be now because if they went impressively,
09:03the numbers should shift again in their favor as they even up series,
09:07particularly Donnie,
09:09if they're impressive in their outcome,
09:11you,
09:11I think you're going to get a better play overall and a more of a closing
09:15angle of Oklahoma city,
09:17rather than letting Indiana back in the game,
09:19throw the punch,
09:20keep punching throughout the fourth quarter.
09:22Instead of letting your,
09:23you know,
09:23letting yourself off the gas and allowing the team really to go six up 10 from
09:26three in the fourth quarter.
09:27I just don't see that happening in game two.
09:30Yeah.
09:31Of course we highlighted how the Pacers have been in these spots and pulled off
09:35miraculous comeback after miraculous comeback.
09:37I guess if you're looking for a glass half full mentality,
09:41Oklahoma city has also been in a similar spot.
09:44Game number one of their second round set against Denver.
09:47They led by 13 points with six and a half minutes remaining.
09:50They lost that game stumbling down the stretch,
09:52but to Jay Jay wise point did return in game number two to route the nuggets
09:57and win by 43.
09:59Might we see something similar on Sunday evening coach where the line in favor of
10:04Oklahoma city is even stronger than it was entering game.
10:08Number one last night,
10:10double digit.
10:10Sure.
10:11But just 10 points.
10:12This one 11 in favor of OKC with a total that has worked its way down by about
10:18a possession to 30 stayed well under last night to 27 and a half.
10:23So J Y in that similar spot,
10:25will the thunder respond with another route in game number two of Indiana?
10:31That's a big line.
10:3211.
10:32I mean,
10:33I mean,
10:33that's a huge line,
10:34but that's an expectation based off the fact that he's going to come back.
10:37Ben,
10:37I'm looking right now at that team total over one 19 and a half.
10:42I think you'll see Oklahoma city kind of get after it a little bit,
10:46maybe try and get their game,
10:47honestly,
10:48more up and down and expect,
10:50you know,
10:50other guys to,
10:51to,
10:51to play with,
10:52play well.
10:53Obviously you got SGA at 38.
10:54My guy,
10:55Lou Dorn had five threes.
10:56Look at his three point prop.
10:57It's over two and a half made threes at plus money.
11:00I still think they're going to give him the ability to shoot the ball.
11:04Tons of attention to Lou Dort.
11:06Take a look at that.
11:06But I expect there to be more firepower and scoring,
11:10particularly out of Oklahoma city.
11:11And then you could get a situation where if Oklahoma city is rolling,
11:14you could get like what other coaches have done.
11:17Particularly.
11:18They're all in is just putt and just take,
11:22take the,
11:22you know,
11:23what kick in and just regroup for game three.
11:25I do like over 119 and a half points for OKC Ben on Sunday night.
11:31What do we take a look to from that last series against Minnesota?
11:33I like to talk about Chet Holmgren.
11:35I always think he could be that piece there that you saying,
11:36Ooh,
11:37maybe he's breaking through,
11:38but then taking a step back.
11:39You had multiple games.
11:40We had 20 plus points against the Timberwolves,
11:42but last night you saw coach 24 minutes played two of nine from the floor,
11:46only six total points.
11:47What can we get out of Chet Holmgren for game number two for OKC?
11:51I think you got,
11:52I think you got to play him and Harden sign together.
11:54I think you have to do that and put a little bit pressure on Pascal Siakam
11:59defensively and go at OB Toppin when he's guarding him as well.
12:03Chet should respond to come back.
12:04Like I said,
12:05I think changing the lineup,
12:07Donnie,
12:08you've played sports when a coach sometimes over things and changes the
12:12lineup.
12:13It backfires because all the other parts,
12:16everybody's out of sync.
12:18Go back to your normal lineup.
12:20Go back to Hart and Stein in the starting lineup.
12:23Let them play with Chet.
12:24Let Chet be that weak side rebounder and shot blocker and not have to be the
12:28center and go at it and do what got you 80 wins at this point.
12:32I know there's a couple of occasions that they went without Hart and Stein in the
12:36starting lineup,
12:36but it was one of them was a Jalen Williams injury.
12:38So it's really like two games of the sample size.
12:42Stop overthinking it.
12:43Do what got you here.
12:45And I think if they put Hart and Stein next to Chet to protect them,
12:48kind of like we've seen in the past,
12:49someone like Aaron Jackson Jr.
12:51getting protected by Steven Adams or Zach Edie play him in his normal spot and
12:55he should be able to be fine in game number two.
12:58Nine points,
12:59nine boards in 17 minutes off the bench for Isaiah Hart and Stein.
13:03He was pretty good when he was on the floor.
13:05It was playoff start.
13:06Number one for a case in Wallace last night in game.
13:10Number one of the NBA final.
13:12So J Y entering the debut game last night,
13:14your series prediction Oklahoma city in five.
13:18Is there an updated prediction after Indiana steals game number one in
13:22dramatic fashion?
13:23You know what,
13:24Ben,
13:25it could be easy to second guess yourself,
13:27but I'm not Mark Dagonal.
13:29I'm sticking with it.
13:30Gentlemen,
13:31sweet.
13:31They get the next four.
13:32Let's hope I'm right.
13:34It is still lower than a three to one price.
13:36Every price on Oklahoma city to win the NBA championship is still half that
13:42up Indiana despite the Pacers having a one Oh series.
13:46We outside.
13:48Game number two of the NBA finals is on Sunday.
13:52We understand it's a Friday,
13:54but the next time you hear from us,
13:55we won't be previewing the game.
13:57We'll be recapping it and breaking down what we saw in Oklahoma city.
14:01Of course,
14:02the RS Indiana steals game number one of the 2025 NBA finals last night,
14:07winning outright as a 10 point underdog,
14:09a total of two 30 stays under in the only lead Indiana had was basically the
14:15final score at 0.3 seconds remaining in regulation.
14:19One 11,
14:20one 10 Tyrese Halliburton delivering yet eight other clutch dagger,
14:25the game winning jumper,
14:27the Pacers and what they have done is the cardiac comeback kids throughout this
14:30magical playoff run cannot be overlooked.
14:33And yet the odds makers are understanding the importance of OKC earning a home
14:39court split to start off the NBA finals because the line was already lofty
14:44entering game one.
14:46It was 10.
14:47It's even more so in favor of the thunder for game two.
14:50As of this moment,
14:51it is 11 total is now two 27 and a hook again,
14:56game one staying under that total dropping by about a possession.
15:00Possession BRS 11 point spread in favor of OKC,
15:05a larger spread in favor of the thunder.
15:08Simply put,
15:09are the odds makers wrong?
15:11I don't know if they're wrong or right at this point,
15:13because now we're in such a negative,
15:15like downshift for OKC.
15:17It's like,
15:17we should have had a runaway victory in game number one.
15:20Not only did he cover,
15:20you lost.
15:21So the algorithm is like,
15:22ah,
15:22we'll try it again at this point.
15:24And I'm willing to say like,
15:25yes,
15:25the numbers are there for a reason.
15:27OKC probably should give their best effort because you can't go down.
15:29Oh two,
15:30but we've seen this story play out multiple times in the playoffs where the
15:33better team at home should walk away to Oh,
15:36they're down.
15:36Oh two before they leave.
15:37Could we actually get that?
15:39And the possibility is right because I keep on bringing up this notion.
15:42Like before game one,
15:43I told you,
15:44I liked OKC.
15:44I thought they would win by double digits,
15:46but I also had the other opportunity to say,
15:48I don't think this game is within the spread.
15:50I think it's a 15 point margin.
15:51If OKC wins or like Indiana wins outright and end up winning outright,
15:55but also under the assumption,
15:57Hey,
15:57the Pacers did every single thing perfectly and barely held off Oklahoma
16:02city.
16:02That wasn't the case.
16:03The Pacers brought their F game in the first half and one at Oklahoma
16:07city.
16:07Who's the best team in the NBA.
16:09So now they're telling you,
16:10all right,
16:10forget about the nine and a half and the tens that were available in game
16:12number one.
16:13Let's just post that 11 and other outlets now sitting at 11 and a half.
16:17Let's see where that gets on Sunday when the public starts to get
16:19involved.
16:20But my vibes for this game are I'm still trusting Oklahoma city,
16:23but this wasn't as if like,
16:25yes,
16:25I understand it was a 15 point lead in the fourth quarter.
16:28They collapsed on that number,
16:29but it wasn't as if the Pacers really like,
16:31Hey,
16:31we had to play perfectly all game long just to come back.
16:34That's not the case here.
16:35I'm still willing to buy in a nice victory for OKC,
16:38but a different way for me to play it,
16:39Ben,
16:40I'm taking OKC in the first half.
16:42I expect just like they were in game number one of double digits at the
16:45break.
16:45You have to impose your home court advantage with the meaningfulness of
16:49this game,
16:49which means you need to put Indiana away where you can't give them thoughts
16:53of life in the fourth quarter,
16:54as if they can come back a big first half surge for Oklahoma city.
16:58That's the way I'm betting game number two so far.
17:01Yeah.
17:02And DRS,
17:02a lot of the thought of could Indiana keep game one competitive?
17:06Could Indiana stay tight within this series was how would the Pacers look
17:11in the opening half last night?
17:12They had 19 first half turnovers and they trailed by 12.
17:17OKC easily covered as a first half favorite of five and a half in game
17:21number one.
17:22And yet,
17:22of course,
17:23stumbling down the stretch.
17:25Now we have talked about the Pacers having this playoff pedigree of
17:28masterful and magical comeback after masterful and magical comeback to find
17:33the history of the NBA while making some,
17:37of course,
17:37as we have shared,
17:38they are now five and three outright in this playoff run.
17:42When they have trailed by 15 points in a game that is truly mind boggling.
17:47But the thunder,
17:48as we have questioned all along DRS,
17:51what is the experience like in these critical significant spots?
17:54They kind of have some familiarity with this situation as well.
17:59In the first game of their second round set against the Nuggets,
18:03they led by 13 with six and a half minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.
18:07Cough that one up.
18:08The Nuggets stormed back to win and then had an OKC respond,
18:12which was our question entering that second game.
18:15They won by 43 at home against the Denver Nuggets.
18:20Now,
18:20are we going to see the same more than likely not?
18:23Is that the anticipation from the odds maker?
18:25Sure.
18:26Not the expectation DRS from the public.
18:2877% of the bets backing Indiana as the 11-point road underdog.
18:3467% of the money backing Indiana as the 11-point road underdog.
18:40And yet the line is steeper in favor of Oklahoma City than it was even for game number one.
18:46If you are reading into those sort of handicapping notions,
18:49that should tell you a lot for game number two.
18:52Yeah,
18:53that's why it's so hard because it was just so simple as,
18:55okay,
18:56Oklahoma City won,
18:57but they only won by eight points.
18:58It's like,
18:58okay,
18:59figure it in.
18:59That line does make some sense.
19:01But the fact that you had that heavy double digit favorite lose outright in a game at home
19:06and not only say like,
19:07okay,
19:07hey,
19:08we're a little bit wrong on that,
19:08Ben,
19:09that nine and a half,
19:0910,
19:10let's move that down to eight and a half.
19:11They went the opposite direction.
19:13Like,
19:13okay,
19:13we opened at nine and a half.
19:14Now we're going to open at 11 for game number two.
19:16Now,
19:16granted,
19:17we understand the task at hand is,
19:18OKC understands they cannot lose this game.
19:21And then say,
19:22all right,
19:22we're going to go on the road now and expect to win this series.
19:25I don't think that's going to happen.
19:26But also at the same time,
19:27you still have to be true to the number where the algorithm is telling you,
19:30here's what these two teams differentiating are.
19:32And a one game one off per se,
19:34let's just say,
19:35is not going to throw that out of whack.
19:36Now also understand this.
19:38If you get the Pacers in this game,
19:39even lose Ben by two or three points in this game,
19:42you're going to start to see that change.
19:44Because I guarantee you,
19:44if we still have a series,
19:46which I expect to in game number five,
19:48we're not seeing 11s and 10 and a halves.
19:49If we get competitive basketball over four straight games,
19:52understand this,
19:53but we're not going to have that one off and say,
19:55Oh,
19:55that means the rest of the series is going to be really close.
19:58Endor,
19:58Indiana is the better team.
19:59Game number two is going to dictate a lot of the future pricing here for
20:03this series.
20:04Yeah,
20:05there's no doubt about it.
20:05DRS.
20:06When you look at the numbers in favor of OKC at home,
20:09the least amount they've been favored by in a home game throughout this
20:13postseason was seven and a half in game number two against the
20:17Minnesota Timberwolves.
20:18So that idea,
20:19they are going to remain a hefty favorite despite coughing up a golden
20:22opportunity to take a one Oh series advantage in the NBA finals.
20:26Yeah,
20:26that's going to be there just to say the last time the thunder were in the
20:31NBA finals was 2012 against LeBron D Wade and Chris Bosch of the Miami
20:35heat,
20:36Oklahoma city one game number one,
20:39and then got swept in the final four to lose in five.
20:43Can they pull off the reverse?
20:44There is still some thought of that quickly DRS.
20:47I asked for your updated view.
20:49How many games do we see now in the NBA finals after Indiana wins game
20:52one?
20:53Six,
20:53six games.
20:54We're going to see in the NBA finals.
20:56I'd be so happy to see it go.
20:57Six games.
20:58Six games.
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