Sportsbooks contradict themselves with the Minnesota Vikings

AtoZ Sports

Tyler Forness points out flawed logic with sportsbooks props for the 2025 Minnesota Vikings season!

Transcript

00:00The sportsbooks don't like the Minnesota Vikings, but they love J.J. McCarthy?

00:05How does that make any sense? Let's talk about it.

00:10When it comes to the Lions for the Minnesota Vikings, it's really interesting.

00:14Their Super Bowl odds are plus 3,000, tied for 14th.

00:17Their odds to win the NFC North are plus 400, third in the NFC North division.

00:22And their win total is at 8.5 with the over at minus 145.

00:27So they think that they'll slightly go over that eight and a half win total and probably win nine games.

00:34But those don't make a whole lot of sense when you look at the strength of the roster.

00:37And it all boils down to one position, quarterback.

00:40And that's J.J. McCarthy.

00:42McCarthy is an interesting one because we just don't know what he's going to bring.

00:46But he's walking to arguably the best situation for any first year starting quarterback since maybe Dante Culpepper.

00:52Yeah, a lot of people tried to glaze us over and gaslight us and talk about the Bears having the best.

00:58But we knew that that was a lie.

01:00We told you that that was a lie.

01:02And it ended up being a lie.

01:04The Bears won five games last year, including a 10-game losing streak

01:09before pulling off a Week 18 last-second win against the Green Bay Packers.

01:15So what can we glean from all this?

01:19Well, they just don't believe that they can feel confident in the Minnesota Vikings with McCarthy, a quarterback.

01:25Whereas my argument has always been that the roster is QB-proof.

01:29But here's where things get really interesting.

01:30And keep in mind, all these numbers are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

01:33They also have passing touchdown props.

01:36And J.J. McCarthy is tied for ninth in the NFL at 24.5 touchdowns.

01:41Yes, tied for ninth.

01:44He is tied for first in the 2024 draft class with Bo Nix.

01:48He is ahead of the following quarterbacks.

01:49Caleb Williams, C.J. Stroud, Drake May, Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold,

01:57Super Bowl MVP, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, and Rookie of the Year last year, Jaden Daniels.

02:04So how does this make any sense?

02:07You're taking a look at what they think the Vikings are going to do, which is pretty much nothing.

02:12And then you're extrapolating it and saying J.J. McCarthy is going to throw 24 touchdowns.

02:17The defense isn't the issue.

02:19The defense is really solid.

02:20It's arguably better than it was last year, even though cornerback looks a little weaker.

02:24That pass rush is going to be significantly improved.

02:27And that unit had 47 sacks last year.

02:30They got to the quarterback and they created pressure.

02:33So what is it?

02:35Do you believe in J.J. McCarthy or do you not?

02:39Because if you believe he's going to throw 24 and a half touchdown passes because that's your prop line.

02:44Why in the world is the win total only at eight and a half games?

02:48It should be nine and a half or ten and a half because this roster is relatively quarterback proof.

02:53We can talk about the schedule all we want.

02:55Yeah, it's hard, but there are winnable games.

02:58There are games that the Vikings are going to be able to take.

03:02And truth be told, two of the road games are neutral site.

03:06So they have more home games than true road games.

03:09Why are the sportsbooks contradicting themselves here just does not make sense.

03:16You either believe in McCarthy and if you believe in McCarthy, you should believe in the Vikings or you don't.

03:22And quite frankly, it feels like they're pulling on both ends of the stick here.

03:27They're playing tug of war against themselves.

03:29I'm Tyler Fornis with the A to Z Sports.

03:32Let's call Vikings.

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