NHL Best Bets: WCF Game 5 Preview & Panthers' Stanley Cup Defense

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00:00And the Florida Panthers continue their Stanley Cup defense with a victory in Game 5 on the road in Raleigh over the Carolina Hurricanes.

00:08Tom Vecchio here for a second consecutive segment.

00:11Tom, yesterday the Panthers down 2-0 middle way through that second period.

00:16They score three straight goals.

00:17They never look back.

00:18The Florida Panthers back into the Cup Final for not just a second consecutive year,

00:23but a third straight year hunting down that second consecutive Stanley Cup.

00:28How has Florida built up this playoff pedigree to be one of the best to do it in the National Hockey League in the last few seasons?

00:36Well, shout out to the Panthers.

00:37I was on their money line last night.

00:39Great come from behind win.

00:40Months ago, I talked with Carver on NHL Today saying, I didn't expect the Panthers to get this far.

00:46Simply going to three straight Stanley Cups is unbelievable.

00:49And I was wrong about that.

00:50You know, they have obviously a great coach with Paul Maurice.

00:52And more importantly, it's the system and the depth that they have.

00:55And it's the fact that they have players obviously that have fully bought into the system.

00:59But they also have players that can play multiple roles.

01:01And that's what's important.

01:02That's what we saw when Vegas won under Bruce Cassidy.

01:05They have players, okay, one day the player's on the second line and he's playing on the power play.

01:09The next day he's on the third line playing on the penalty kill.

01:10You have these interchangeable parts.

01:12And you have players that are willing to do it all.

01:14It's not just that they can do it all.

01:15They're willing to do the things that are necessary to be done.

01:18And they have shown that literally time and time again, this being the third straight year.

01:23So credit to them.

01:24They are absolutely unbelievable.

01:25They have the depth.

01:26They have the experience.

01:27They have the top-end talent.

01:28They check every single box you possibly want.

01:31Advancing into the NHL Stanley Cup Finals.

01:33And again, maybe it is really a dynasty that will be looming.

01:36But in order for the dynasties to continue, they must win Stanley Cups.

01:40Looking for another one there for the Panthers.

01:42The team that they're going to meet, maybe it is going to be the Edmonton Oilers.

01:45We're going to take a look at the game tonight.

01:47That shifts over to Dallas.

01:48A win by Edmonton puts them in the Stanley Cup Finals to go up against the Florida Panthers.

01:52But a favorite tonight, Edmonton is not.

01:54Opened up at the FanDuel Sportsbook at a minus $1.25 price here in New Jersey yesterday.

01:59The FanDuel Sportsbook now reporting back a minus $1.30 price as a favorite towards the Stars.

02:03The total in this game opened up at five and a half.

02:05Still sits at five and a half.

02:07Expectations for tonight in Dallas for you, Tom.

02:10I want to play the over five and a half.

02:12I'm seeing a juice to the over right now, minus $1.42.

02:14I know that's not what you should be expecting.

02:17Especially an elimination game, potentially.

02:18But there's just been too much scoring overall for me to be comfortable with taking the under end.

02:23I have a Dallas future.

02:24I want them to continue the series, but it's looking pretty grim right now.

02:27Despite the fact that if you actually look at some of their underlying metrics,

02:31Dallas has actually played pretty well.

02:32And this leads me into the prop that I like tonight, which would be Stuart Skinner.

02:36The goalie for the Oilers over 24 and a half saves.

02:38If you actually look at the entire series overall in terms of total shot attempts,

02:41Dallas actually leads at 267 to 228.

02:45And then when we equate that to expected goals, Dallas is up at 14.58 and Edmonton is at 14.02.

02:52So despite the fact that Edmonton has won these games 6-1 and 4-1,

02:55Dallas is actually playing really, really well.

02:57So their backs are against the wall.

02:59Just get some shots on net.

03:00Get to Stuart Skinner.

03:01Over 24 and a half saves.

03:03It is really interesting to see how the Western Conference Final has played out.

03:07The Stars were trailing 3-1 entering the third period of the opening game of this set in Big D.

03:13They scored five unanswered goals in the third period to win Game 1.

03:17From there, it's basically been all Edmonton.

03:20It was won three consecutive games with a goal-scoring margin of 13-2.

03:26Can the Stars turn that around to extend this series and save their season?

03:32Becchio, whether it's tonight that Dallas prolongs the series or we head back above the border to Canada

03:37and Edmonton in game number six, I ask you a simple question.

03:41Are the Oilers going to win the Western Conference crown once again?

03:45They are.

03:46I don't think it'll get done tonight.

03:47I think it'll take one more game.

03:48But Edmonton's clearly been the better team.

03:51I mean, even in that third period.

03:53Like, if you look at it, they could have won this series 4-0.

03:55So Edmonton gets it done in six games.

03:58They get it done, you know, in a couple days.

03:59And then, man, a rematch in the Stanley Cup is what we have on tap.

04:03You take a look, though, Tom, with the Edmonton Oilers.

04:06Because that's the team I've rooted for this entire season.

04:08I just like the brand of play.

04:09High-flying, you know, totals in the playoffs routinely around that six-and-a-half number.

04:13They're fun to watch.

04:14Zach Hyman being down for the Oilers now throughout the rest of the Stanley Cup playoffs is a devastating shot.

04:19But if we do look forward to the finals, and it is Edmonton.

04:21Like, I don't want to ask you, like, who's going to win it.

04:23But what are some of the matchups and the sort of style of play like?

04:26Is one side going to certainly win out, or the depth of the Florida Panthers?

04:29What gives?

04:31Honestly, last year was so close, obviously, going seven games.

04:34I see minor adjustments from Edmonton of what they struggled with in the first three games.

04:40They obviously can't be falling down again 3-0.

04:42Like, the fact that they came back from 3-0 last year was amazing.

04:44So I've seen minor adjustments.

04:46And, again, what I will consistently say, Stuart Skinner is not an elite goalie.

04:49He's not as good as Bob Borowski.

04:50But the system in front of him is awesome.

04:52So if they can maintain that system and they can come away with some minor edges here or there,

04:56the coin flips go in their favor in the first three games, that's where I think they'll win.

05:00And, frankly, once the series prices come out, I'll have positions on Edmonton to win in 4-3

05:05or Edmonton to win 4-2.

05:06That's where I really think it's going to end up happening.

05:08They just can't fall behind that early, or the Panthers will learn from the mistakes that they did

05:13in the latter portion of the series and correct those to take care of business early

05:17rather than Edmonton coming back.

05:19So the Cup odds right now, Vecchio, the Florida Panthers are a minus-money favorite at minus-120.

05:25Of course, Edmonton has not sealed the deal out in the Western Conference just yet.

05:29Let's assume that happens either tonight or maybe in Game 6 back on home ice.

05:34Who do you think would be booked even as the ever-so-slight favorite to win the Stanley Cup?

05:40I think it'll still be Florida.

05:42They'll still have home ice going into it.

05:44So I think they'll be a slight favorite.

05:45But, you know, if you want to take a shot at Edmonton, I think that's certainly fine.

05:48And, again, I'll probably have a position on Edmonton.

05:51I do, however, have a position on Bobrovsky to win Conn Smythe.

05:54And I think that's the bet to make at this point.

05:56If you don't want to take Florida, you don't want to take Edmonton, go with Bobrovsky.

06:00Because, again, last year McDavid won the Conn Smythe.

06:02Despite the fact that they lost, he still won the Conn Smythe.

06:05So if Florida does repeat this year, they'll probably give it to Bobrovsky at plus-210,

06:09far better than minus-120, whatever it is for their current price.

06:12With the Panthers clinching a spot in the Cup Final to defend their championship a year ago,

06:17Florida has some hypothetical odds out against either of the two teams out West right now.

06:23And Vecchio is correct.

06:24The Panthers would be, at least based on the odds at this current moment,

06:28an ever-so-slight minus-115 outright favorite to win the Stanley Cup over the Edmonton Oilers.

06:35Edmonton at minus-104.

06:37Sergei Bobrovsky, second-best price, though, to win the Conn Smythe.

06:41Playoff Bob at plus-210.

06:43Conor McDavid is that short favorite, plus-175.

06:47TV, Tom, we appreciate the time.

06:49As always, thanks for being here on this Thursday.

06:52Thanks for having me.

06:52I'll be in studio Saturday and then Sunday, pro baseball today with Donnie.

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