- 5/18/2025
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00:00Live right here on this Tuesday on the early line on SportsGrid from playoff action around the association.
00:06Now to postseason reaction from the ice last night in the Stanley Cup postseason and setting the stage for what we will see around the National Hockey League on this Tuesday evening as well.
00:19Who better to do it than from the NHL?
00:21Pete Jensen joining us live right here on this Tuesday morning on TEL.
00:25Pete, as always, we appreciate the time.
00:28Thanks for being here following a doubleheader of Monday night Stanley Cup playoff action.
00:34Of course, guys, this is the best time of year with the basketball and hockey playoffs going on at the same time.
00:40And we got some home cooking with the Carolina Hurricanes.
00:43That looks like a different team compared to previous postseasons.
00:48I know they've always been a home team that has been really strong in the playoffs, but always missing those extra goals or two or three in a particular series.
00:58And I think in this series, the possession dominance is just overwhelming the Washington Capitals.
01:03Yeah, no doubt about it, Pete.
01:06A big victory for Carolina last night.
01:09They take a commanding 3-1 series lead on home ice.
01:12And finally, speaking of home ice advantage, in our second round set in the Western Conference between the Oilers and the Golden Knights,
01:21a team wins at home and a game features fewer than seven goals.
01:26Edmonton now up 3-1 with a decisive win last night, planking Vegas 3-zip last night north of the border.
01:34Edmonton, a slight home ice favorite and a total of six and a half does stay under.
01:40The Oilers now, Pete, a commanding 3-1 series advantage.
01:44What have the Oilers figured out in this second round set against the Golden Knights?
01:48Well, it was a good start for them yesterday.
01:52And, of course, they had won each of their previous six playoff games and come from behind fashion.
01:57So they got off to the early lead, never looked back.
02:01Stuart Skinner with a second career playoff shutout.
02:03I mean, that's been the whole of the team this season.
02:06They had to turn to Calvin Pickard at different points in the regular season.
02:10And even in the playoffs, he's a little banged up.
02:12They went back to Skinner and he really delivered for them there.
02:15You know this team for years and years has been carried by Conor McDavid and Leon Drysaddle and Evan Bouchard,
02:22who are three of the best point producers in the postseason in NHL history.
02:27But this postseason has been different in the secondary scoring, really all postseason long,
02:33from Game 3 against the Kings until now when they've won 7 of 8.
02:37Corey Perry's been a beast.
02:39Connor Brown's been a beast.
02:40Evander Kane, who came back from missing the entire regular season with an injury.
02:46He has seven points, all at even strength, in nine playoff games and four five-on-five goals,
02:52which is among the league leaders.
02:54So, to me, it's the supporting cast of the Edmonton Oilers just exceeding everybody's expectations
02:59based on what was a very mediocre regular season for Edmonton.
03:03And we understand with Edmonton, Pete, we always love that offense.
03:07But, boy, oh, boy, if Skinner's going to be pitching shutouts here in the playoffs,
03:10that certainly bodes really well for the Edmonton Oilers.
03:12But we do got hockey tonight.
03:14One game standalone, 8 p.m. tonight.
03:17That's Winnipeg and Dallas in Dallas today.
03:19A favorite here of around a minus 150 price on Dallas.
03:22And a total that's listed at five and a half.
03:24Dallas does have a two-to-one series lead.
03:26And we're still waiting on regular season Hellebuck to show up in the playoffs, Pete.
03:31What gives tonight between the Jets and the Stars?
03:35So, Winnipeg has a chance, of course, to bounce back here in hockey.
03:40Any given game, even if you're outshot, right, two-to-one, three-to-one,
03:44you could see a surprise victory, especially with a goaltender of Connor Hellebuck's caliber.
03:50But when you look at the road splits for Hellebuck,
03:53he's been the worst goalie in the league on the road this postseason.
03:560-4, 7-72, my goodness.
03:59I mean, usually a bad save percentage is in the 800s.
04:03This one's in the 700s.
04:0521 goals allowed in four road playoff games.
04:08And Dallas has looked a lot better at home this postseason compared to previous postseasons.
04:14Thanks to Mikko Rantanen.
04:15I mean, Mikko Rantanen has been absolutely ridiculous.
04:19He has to be the favorite for the Conn Smythe and for playoff MVP.
04:23Three-plus points in five of his past six playoff games is unheard of.
04:29This time of year, things get clamped down and the offense dries up, right?
04:33Not for Mikko Rantanen.
04:34This guy is on an absolute rampage right now.
04:37An absolute heater, Pete.
04:39He did not score or record a point nor an assist in that third game, I guess it was.
04:46No, game number two, excuse me, against the Winnipeg Jets, but responded in a big way in
04:51game number three for Dallas to take that 2-1 series lead.
04:55A goal and two dimes in that third game.
04:58It was tied at 2-2 all entering the third period of the opening game in Dallas of this
05:03second round set.
05:04The Stars pulled away with three decisive goals in that huge third period.
05:09So, Pete, when you look at the Western Conference odds right now, the Oilers already own a 3-1
05:15series lead against the Vegas Golden Knights.
05:17The Stars favored tonight on home ice.
05:20You saw a minus 150 price to open up that 3-1 series lead over the Winnipeg Jets.
05:26Pete, if that is the Western Conference finals that we see as the results and the odds makers
05:31expect, who do you give the edge, Edmonton or Dallas?
05:35I think Dallas is the stronger team from top to bottom.
05:40I think that you have, obviously, the star power on the Oilers with those top three guys,
05:45but the way Rantanen's playing, how deep that forward group is, I mean, I would trust that
05:50forward group any day over the, you know, second, third, and fourth lines of the Edmonton
05:56Oilers.
05:56They've been great stories this postseason.
05:58I also trust Jake Ottinger more than Calvin Pickard or Stuart Skinner in net.
06:04So, I guess maybe a big X factor, if they end up playing each other, could be whether
06:10Miro Hayskinen comes back from injury.
06:12Right now, Thomas Harley, for the Stars, has been the unsung hero, I think, of the entire
06:17postseason with how he's, you know, leading the entire NHL in total skating distance.
06:23That he's among the average ice time leaders, he's chipping in goals left and right, and
06:29producing points as well.
06:31He's been a guy, while Hayskinen has been out, like, you gotta be on Thomas Harley in
06:37the props market, because he has an insane workload right now, and he's delivering with
06:42quite nice efficiency for Dallas.
06:44I would give the edge to the Stars, and that's my pick to win this series and to win the Cup
06:49after what they did to the Avalanche in the first round.
06:53And you could see a quick change in those odds if Dallas does, in fact, take that 3-1
06:59series advantage with a home victory tonight over the Jets in game number four.
07:03By the way, for Mikko Rantanen, who has 17 points in his last six playoff games, as Pete
07:08alluded to, minus 290 tonight on the FanDuel Sportsbook to record at least a point against
07:15Winnipeg.
07:16To the Eastern Conference, we go with Pete, up next.
07:19A doubleheader last night in the Stanley Cup postseason that started in the Eastern Conference
07:24in Raleigh at the home of the Carolina Hurricanes, who have taken a 3-1 series lead over the Washington
07:30Capitals.
07:31The Caps, of course, a historic season with Alexander Ovechkin, best regular season record
07:37in the Eastern Conference.
07:38But now, a game away from having their season come to a close.
07:44The NHL's Pete Jensen with us once again.
07:47Carolina, a 5-2 victory.
07:49After an Ovechkin power play goal, Pete, midway through that third and final period last night,
07:55the Caps did cut it to a one-goal margin.
07:58Carolina scored twice from then on, out to win 5-2.
08:02The two victories for the Canes in games 3 and 4 at home by a 7-goal differential.
08:10How has Carolina, Pete, been so dominant in this second-round series against the Capitals?
08:16I think that the possession style, we talk about it all the time, 5-on-5 shots on goal,
08:23shot attempts differential.
08:24It's been heavy in Carolina's favor in this series.
08:28And they've also gotten outstanding goaltending from Freddie Anderson.
08:31You guys probably remember through the years, through some losses and many victories for Carolina,
08:37I've kind of been like a Freddie Anderson apologist.
08:41And I think that his body of work over his career, he probably deserves a little better.
08:469-16 career save percentage in 80 career postseason games.
08:50That's a lot of experience for a guy that's 35 years old, has had some recent injury, health issues, and concerns.
09:00But when he's healthy, the Canes win more than not.
09:03Made some mistakes last year in Game 6 against the Rangers when they lost in the second round.
09:08But it looks like Freddie is in top form and going to get the Carolina Hurricanes at least to the conference final.
09:14And I think that what he's done in this series, specifically facing high-danger shots,
09:20I mean, he was 21-for-21 entering Game 4.
09:23And that just doesn't happen.
09:25I mean, those are the highest percentage shots.
09:28So, yeah, props to him.
09:30And I think he's helped the Canes reach another level this postseason.
09:34Take a look at the Eastern Conference Finals here on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
09:37To win at plus 105, those Carolina Hurricanes followed by the Florida Panthers at plus 165.
09:42Then the Toronto Maple Leafs at a 440 price.
09:44Then we just talked about the Capitals all the way down at 33-to-1.
09:48Looking at the price points and the teams that are expected to win the Eastern Conference Finals,
09:52do you agree with it?
09:53And also, is there a dog that might be able to come through here as opposed to the Carolina Hurricanes?
09:59I mean, the Maple Leafs, that's interesting that they're so far back there
10:04because they did win the first two games at home.
10:07They lost the two on the road.
10:09Home teams have held serve in that series.
10:11We know that Florida is so resilient, so strong when playing from behind,
10:16but I think this is a little bit different of a Leafs team this year.
10:20I know there's been the injury concern with Anthony Stolarz,
10:23and maybe that's, you know, people are losing faith in them,
10:26but they are outscoring Florida in the series at 5-on-5 right now, 11-to-10.
10:31I love the contributions and the props market appeal of a guy like Matthew Nyes,
10:36who is the NHL leader in both high-danger goals this postseason and high-danger shots on goal,
10:44playing on the first power play and also the top line.
10:47For Toronto, it boils down to Austin Matthews.
10:51Like, is this guy going to score?
10:52Is he healthy enough to score a big goal and a big spot for this team?
10:56They desperately need it.
10:58I think the series has been close enough where, like, one or two of those goals from Matthews
11:02could really tilt the scale and actually have Toronto dethrone the defending champs.
11:08The series has been that close.
11:10And when you look at it, Pete, only one game tonight, of course,
11:13in Stanley Cup playoff action in Big D.
11:16Stars a minus-150 home favorite to take a 3-1 series lead against the Winnipeg Jets.
11:21Tomorrow will be game number five up in the sixth between the Leafs and the reigning champs in the Florida Panthers.
11:28And so far, each of our two teams have won each of their two games on home ice.
11:34And yet, Florida, a slight road ice favorite for game number five tomorrow.
11:39Do you think the odds are fair to have the reigning champs as a road favorite in Toronto in a decisive game five?
11:47Yes, Florida is deeper.
11:49They were my pick to win the series, you know, before I was given some deserved love to the Maple Leafs
11:55for hanging around with a team that could get to the final and play like a Dallas.
12:01You know, that's where I would lean if I was making a pick right now.
12:04Florida was my pre-playoff pick to make the cup final.
12:08And they've been really strong in this series, despite facing some adversity.
12:14Brad Marchand is back.
12:16We haven't seen the very best from Matthew Kachuk, but I think it's coming.
12:20Sam Bennett has been a beast.
12:22I know, you know, a couple of dicey plays here and there.
12:25But overall, he's bringing the offense.
12:27That was a huge goal last game.
12:29And Aaron Ekblad, when he's in the lineup, Panthers are a pretty damn good team.
12:33So you have to look at them as the leading team to get back to the cup final in the East.
12:39We appreciate it.
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