Exciting Grade 1 Gamely Stakes Analysis & Predictions

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00:00let's get right into the grade one gamely good field lining up here there are two horses alexa

00:05that are actually entered to run in a race on sunday and in this race so we're not exactly

00:10sure where they're going to run but by the time monday runs you'll know because if they didn't

00:14run sunday they'll be in this race that's the two alphabella and that's uh the outside runner

00:19where's my ring the number nine so if those two are in or maybe one of them will be in maybe one

00:24of them runs on sunday let's start with lady claypool it's one of a couple horses alexa in

00:29here that's really sharp out on the west coast in some of the west coast stakes races lady claypool

00:34has won three races in a row and then she just won the santa anna but this will definitely be the

00:39toughest group she's going to face as she steps up into a grade one yeah i mean the last one was her

00:44first time against graded stakes company but a grade three she went from last to first definitely

00:50a big closer she is coming off a two and a half month layoff and she's never won off a break before

00:55but i think you do have to love a horse who's been on a winning streak and been improving

00:59yep uh alphabella she's a grade three winner but she's not a win machine overall she's a horse who

01:06loves to finish second in her career she has three wins in her 21 starts then eight times she's finished

01:12second so she's in the mix a lot but she doesn't really have that killer win instinct yeah she's kind

01:18of the opposite of lady claypool right i mean she's been running in graded stakes years for the last two

01:22and a half years so i mean she's super seasoned against this level of competition but like you

01:28said gets those second places more than the wins but again is a really versatile horse she's run on

01:33the dirt and the turf um her early and late pace figures are actually the same if you note that on

01:39the screen so she's kind of a grinder type she's shown some early speed in some races as well as kind

01:44of hanging back and showing some closing speed so she's a talented versatile horse but i would not say

01:51as like a standout in this field what's cool about this race is that it's really competitive i think

01:56you can make a case for just about anyone but there's no real way about most of these races

02:01two of them at least two of the three for sure and there's nobody that that like stands out among

02:08the rest so that's what makes a good betting race or if you're looking at any betting any sport to bet

02:13any field to bet on you want it to be kind of evenly matched because there's a lot of different options

02:18even a horse like kinjani who hasn't been facing stakes company it's not like she's been doing

02:23anything wrong in her three races in the u.s alexa and she's going to make her second start after a

02:28long layoff i wouldn't be shocked to see her run well coming off of a really troubled trip last time

02:33out yeah i mean she's been off for you know 15 months so or was off for that long so you have to

02:40kind of assume there was some kind of injury and then this is her second out after that break so

02:44her figures i wouldn't say are good enough to win but we don't know right we don't know exactly how

02:50she's going to come back how well she's prepared and ready after that big long break um for me i'm

02:56not including her though you and i both like the number four public assembly a little bit she's just

03:00been so impressive in her last couple and i think we even have a replay to show you some of her last

03:06race which was the win in the royal heroine over at san anita alexa she was kind of behind horses

03:12there was a moment where it looked like she was going to get stuck and then as soon as she got an

03:17opening she shot through yeah i mean this horse has so much upside her progression is super impressive

03:24she's never regressed her figures have improved every single start um you know they stepped her

03:29up to great stakes company like you said there and she won she's got mid-pack closer which i think

03:36will be a decent running style for the setup in this race we have no reason to believe we've seen

03:42her ceiling we've seen the best out of her yet so i think public assembly if you notice on the screen

03:46the morning line um box is blank that's because we're doing this pretty early right this is friday

03:52these races aren't until monday so we don't actually have odds yet for these horses um but i don't know

03:58gino i feel like we might get a decent price on public assembly i agree i think if she's going to be in

04:03the five to one above range i'm going to play her to win i think that's somewhere we're going to find

04:07her in that mix no show sammy joe comes out of a really tough grade one like just because a race is

04:12a grade one doesn't necessarily mean all grade ones are the same right she came out of a really tough

04:18race over at keeneland this is a better spot for her i'm just a little worried about her running style

04:23because she's a deeper closer but she fits with this group yeah she can definitely hit the board i think a

04:29win might be kind of tough for her but you know she's like like public assembly she's really never

04:33regressed um and this race does have a lot of those mid pack closers or closers in it though so i think

04:41it could be difficult for her to get the trip and you know be running with everybody at the end

04:47the number six expensive queen is trained by brendan walsh she's only raced one time in the u.s and it was a

04:53good start it was a win this is tougher for her but just to give you an idea trainer brendan walsh

04:58knows this particular race really well he sent out a horse in 2021 to the gamely to finish second in

05:062022 he won the gamely with ocean road 2023 he finished fourth and then last year he finished

05:11third so every year since 2021 he's had a horse finish first second third or fourth in this race

05:17he comes here with expensive queen what do you think about this one again like you can make a case for so

05:22many horses in here you know she's like i said only run once in the u.s and that was a tough race it was a

05:27lower level it was an allowance race at keeneland um but i still think it was a pretty salty race and

05:31won that day closing from the back she did get a fast pace to run at probably faster than she'll get

05:37today i imagine or monday um but second off the layoff um second in the states those are all valid

05:44angles that you can play and make a reason for a horse to improve liguria is another horse who would

05:49not be a shock at all in here alexa she's a multiple graded stakes winner she just won her most recent

05:55start she came from last in the field of six and swooped on by we'll see her right here she's going

06:01to duck down to the inside looking for room and she runs down a really sharp horse named tiru potty i

06:07mean this is another one that would not be a surprise to see her come right back in one well again

06:12i agree she seems to be peaking um you know just one that great two at santa nita that you're looking

06:18at here and again a closer so there could definitely be a case for kind of a blanket finish at the wire

06:26in this race um she's got her latest figures very fast she has umberto board who just won the preakness

06:32on journalism uh so yeah another one you could make a case for for me when i'm handicapping horse races

06:38the most important thing that i really start with is the pace like how is the race going to set up

06:43in any sport matchups are key you can have teams that aren't necessarily as good as one another

06:48but because of the matchup they could probably beat them same thing in horse racing but in this

06:53particular race be your best the number eight just looks like she found a great spot to get a field

07:01where there's not that much other early speed in here she likes to be right on the lead or sitting

07:05close she can sit second just off and i think she's going to get a great opportunity to do that in here

07:10alexa i completely agree i mean she's got a very impressive resume if she wins on monday for safie

07:16she'll hit the million dollar mark in earnings she won the pegasus world cup billy america turf in

07:21january she has multiple other graded stakes wins on her resume and like you said um typically a more

07:26forwardly placed horse and is not going to have a lot of contention up there so i think this race

07:31will either be a runaway leader be your best or you'll she'll get caught and you'll just have like a

07:35blanket finish at the wire the nine where's my ring is kind of a wild card i actually

07:40expect that she may run in the race on sunday because she just has better form overall on the

07:45dirt than on the turf yeah i agree i mean she's she's just a wild card i think it's kind of confusing

07:51that they've put her in here i mean maybe it's a new trainer maybe they think oh we should try her

07:56on a different surface but i don't know i would i also agree she'll probably show up on sunday

08:01a really good renewal of the grade one gamely let's move to selections before we take our first break

08:07we look at this race pretty similar alexa you and i are going 4-8 kind of the upside horse

08:11over be your best the one that they'll all have to run down in there

08:15you

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