This has been the quietest start to the tropical season in the Northern Hemisphere since 1998.
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00:00We're watching some new development in the East Pacific. This will likely become the first named storm, not just in the East Pacific, but anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere for 2025. In fact, you had a very slow start to the year for tropical activity, sometimes in other basins north of the equator. We see some activity by now, but there's been the quietest start since 1998 for the Northern Hemisphere. And around May 15th, we typically begin to see storms form in the East Pacific and the Atlantic is
00:29still yet to see hurricane season begin. That starts officially June 1st. But this disturbance here is strengthening. It's not as impressive as that robust wave to the west, but this is the one that's going to be moving west-northwest, staying south of Mexico, likely to develop in the final days of the month of May here. And this will likely become most likely tropical storm Alvin. So here's the East Pacific storm list and Alvin will be up next. And that will likely be what we see form here south of Mexico.
00:59In the Atlantic, things are very quiet. Still no tropical threats, lots of shear. You can see a front moving way, way east of the East Coast to the U.S. And that's going to introduce even some more shear. So no signs of Andrea quite yet in the Atlantic basin. But overall, we are expecting this to eventually become an active season with 13 to 18 named storms, 7 to 10 hurricanes. These numbers may come up close to or maybe just a little shy of the very active year we had last year.
01:25Three to five major hurricanes and three to six direct U.S. impacts. And these numbers, again, hedging a little above average and slightly below where we were last year for the most part.