Forecasters concerned about a severe weather outbreak in the Plains from May 18-20

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Jon Porter explain why they're so concerned about the threat of severe weather on Monday and Tuesday.

Transcript

00:00We are now convinced, and we've been talking about this here on the AccuWeather Network all morning,

00:05we are looking at a severe weather outbreak, both Monday and Tuesday, some severe weather on Sunday.

00:12I want to tell people why we're so convinced that we're going to see that it begins with where this piece of energy is moving.

00:21That's right, and it's the overall pattern. Look at that powerful jet stream disturbance.

00:25It would be one thing if it was moving east and not becoming more intense, but instead it's digging southeastward here,

00:33and this is becoming a more intense feature, and then you get another piece of it that drops into it later Sunday.

00:40That sets us up for the Monday and Tuesday problems.

00:43So what we're going to end up having is these pieces of jet stream energy being ejected out of the southwestern U.S. toward the plains.

00:50That's where it intersects with that warm and moist air. That's the recipe for trouble.

00:54And trouble over multiple days, so we want people to be best prepared.

00:58That's why we're raising the alarm about this concern now, and using stronger language than other sources,

01:04so people can be best prepared and stay safer. That's what we do here at AccuWeather.

01:08Let's talk about it on Sunday. This is the beginning.

01:11All right, well, we start getting the severe weather threat.

01:13John, it's in more of the typical areas we would see severe weather this time of the year.

01:18That is what we used to refer to as Tornado Alley.

01:21Right, the central plains, the I-35 corridor here from places like Wichita, Kansas, toward Oklahoma City,

01:27and southward toward Dallas, so the coverage toward Dallas can be a little bit more sparse.

01:32Any storms that do develop further south can be pretty intense, and again, a risk for damaging winds and tornadoes there as well.

01:40All right, the threat time will be afternoon-evening.

01:43The thunderstorms then diminish as they move across the Midwest on Monday.

01:46And then that little cloud area, you can see it from Kansas City toward Wichita, Kansas.

01:51This is where we're going to be looking at the firing line in the afternoon.

01:56And, John, we just finished our map discussion.

01:59Let's talk about what we are likely to do to this area on Monday.

02:05Right, our team, AccuWeather, we have over 100 expert meteorologists here at AccuWeather,

02:09and our team that has just been debating the setup on Monday, it's a concerning one.

02:16And we've just made the decision to add a high risk here for Monday,

02:20which, again, we do that only on a handful of days every year to delineate the most significant concerns.

02:26And that's going to be across parts of southeast Kansas, Oklahoma, into southwest Missouri,

02:31and also toward portions of northwest Arkansas as well.

02:35So we're debating that right now and fine-tuning that, but a high risk on the way from Monday into Monday night.

02:41Looks like a severe weather outbreak with damaging wind, large hail, tornadoes, and flash flooding.

02:46John, all morning I've been more worried about this day, not underscoring how dangerous it could be on Monday,

02:52but Tuesday looks to me that it has the earmarks of a widespread area of severe weather

02:58and possibly another high-risk day.

03:02We agree with your thoughts on that one as well, Bernie.

03:06There's warm, moist air, increasingly warm and moist air that's going to be drawn into this

03:11at the same time as that jet stream disturbance heads eastward.

03:16That creates a lot of lift in the atmosphere to build those tall thunderstorm clouds.

03:20And once again, we're looking for a severe weather outbreak here across parts of southern Illinois,

03:25Missouri, Arkansas, also Tennessee, northern Mississippi, down even toward northeastern Texas perhaps,

03:33including the Dallas-Fort Worth area could get in on that, and also toward northern Louisiana as well.

03:38So another broad area, and we want people to, again, be prepared.

03:43That's why we're talking about this now, so that you have several days to be prepared.

03:46Download the AccuWeather app, turn on push notifications, and also help people that you know who live in this area,

03:54people who live busy lives.

03:55Remind them that danger looms here for early next week on a multi-day severe weather outbreak.

04:01Again, the review we are forecasting is severe weather outbreak.

04:05We're giving you Saturday, Sunday, Monday, three to four days in advance from the southern plains on Monday,

04:13mid-south on Tuesday.

04:14Make sure you're prepared.

04:15AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.

04:18John, thanks for breaking it down here on AccuWeather Early.

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