The storms firing up on Thursday afternoon are just the beginning of tornado risks over the coming days.
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00:00 Jake, we are dealing with some nasty storms and you and others on the forecast team have
00:06 been working hard at updating the latest graphics and forecast information that feeds the AccuWeather
00:11 app and AccuWeather.com.
00:13 So where are you most concerned about severe weather breaking out this evening and tonight?
00:17 What's the timeline for this?
00:18 Yeah, well we're just starting to see that get underway here right now, Jeff.
00:22 We just saw a tornado watch come out here in northwestern parts of Kansas into around
00:28 far southwestern Nebraska.
00:30 That is just the area that we're getting started with this evening.
00:33 That's the first area that we're looking at, kind of around the I-70 to I-80 corridor here,
00:39 southwest of Kearney and north of Dodge City.
00:42 That's going to be the first area that we see storms break out and they aren't there
00:45 yet but once they initiate, they will initiate and go very quickly and become severe very
00:51 quickly.
00:52 Very large hail, strong tornadoes and very damaging winds.
00:56 All a possibility with all of these storms.
00:59 You can see some of the risks with all of this in that area.
01:03 After that area develops, we are looking at another area farther to the south.
01:09 This area again, we'll see some more potential even later in the evening but then areas farther
01:13 south here around the Red River Valley towards the Texas Panhandle.
01:17 This is later, more into the evening and then through the overnight, we'll see a line of
01:21 storms develop here and move eastward and north and eastward through the overnight hours.
01:26 That takes us into Friday.
01:28 Jake, on Friday we're going to be dealing with some nasty storms in a different area.
01:32 We had, I think the number was 26 separate tornadoes back on last Tuesday in parts of
01:38 Iowa and other parts of the Midwest.
01:41 Kind of a similar area, maybe a little farther west but what are expectations for Friday
01:45 compared to what we have this evening and tonight?
01:48 It'll almost look like a similar type of setup where you have the main area of low pressure
01:52 is up here towards Nebraska, up towards Omaha and just out ahead of that, that's where we
01:57 have this high risk of severe thunderstorms.
01:59 That includes again, strong tornadoes, very large hails, damaging winds and flash flooding
02:05 and that will get going again later in the afternoon into the evening hours but then
02:08 this whole area farther south, these are all areas that can see first some leftover severe
02:14 thunderstorms first thing in the morning but then again late in the afternoon and especially
02:19 in the overnight hours, we could see some more development down here.
02:22 This is an area where there's more uncertainty and things could be more isolated tomorrow
02:27 night but certainly a good risk for severe thunderstorms in those areas.
02:32 And near the end of this loop now, we landed on Saturday when we have numerous thunderstorms
02:36 in many areas.
02:37 So Saturday, we have a high risk, that's 3 out of 4 on the AccuWeather Threat Level Index
02:41 for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, areas from around Tulsa to Joplin, all the way up
02:45 into the Kansas City metro.
02:47 And what's the character of these thunderstorms on Saturday?
02:49 Is there going to be much of a change in maybe the distribution of hail, reports, damaging
02:54 wind and tornadoes and flooding?
02:56 Yeah, Saturday could be a day where we see it all kind of break out at once and all get
03:00 going all at once across this whole area and then move eastward into the overnight hours.
03:05 So still, the day is coming, we'll determine a little bit more about this but this could
03:11 be a large outbreak, a large area on Saturday.
03:14 Alright, we always appreciate your expertise, whether it's lake effect snow or severe thunderstorms.
03:18 Jake, good stuff, we appreciate that report.
03:20 Thanks, Bill.
03:21 We're going to stay connected with you guys here at the Forecast Operation.