Forecasters expect a severe weather outbreak from the Plains into the Midwest this weekend

AccuWeather

The storms firing up on Thursday afternoon are just the beginning of tornado risks over the coming days.

Transcript

00:00 Jake, we are dealing with some nasty storms and you and others on the forecast team have

00:06 been working hard at updating the latest graphics and forecast information that feeds the AccuWeather

00:11 app and AccuWeather.com.

00:13 So where are you most concerned about severe weather breaking out this evening and tonight?

00:17 What's the timeline for this?

00:18 Yeah, well we're just starting to see that get underway here right now, Jeff.

00:22 We just saw a tornado watch come out here in northwestern parts of Kansas into around

00:28 far southwestern Nebraska.

00:30 That is just the area that we're getting started with this evening.

00:33 That's the first area that we're looking at, kind of around the I-70 to I-80 corridor here,

00:39 southwest of Kearney and north of Dodge City.

00:42 That's going to be the first area that we see storms break out and they aren't there

00:45 yet but once they initiate, they will initiate and go very quickly and become severe very

00:51 quickly.

00:52 Very large hail, strong tornadoes and very damaging winds.

00:56 All a possibility with all of these storms.

00:59 You can see some of the risks with all of this in that area.

01:03 After that area develops, we are looking at another area farther to the south.

01:09 This area again, we'll see some more potential even later in the evening but then areas farther

01:13 south here around the Red River Valley towards the Texas Panhandle.

01:17 This is later, more into the evening and then through the overnight, we'll see a line of

01:21 storms develop here and move eastward and north and eastward through the overnight hours.

01:26 That takes us into Friday.

01:28 Jake, on Friday we're going to be dealing with some nasty storms in a different area.

01:32 We had, I think the number was 26 separate tornadoes back on last Tuesday in parts of

01:38 Iowa and other parts of the Midwest.

01:41 Kind of a similar area, maybe a little farther west but what are expectations for Friday

01:45 compared to what we have this evening and tonight?

01:48 It'll almost look like a similar type of setup where you have the main area of low pressure

01:52 is up here towards Nebraska, up towards Omaha and just out ahead of that, that's where we

01:57 have this high risk of severe thunderstorms.

01:59 That includes again, strong tornadoes, very large hails, damaging winds and flash flooding

02:05 and that will get going again later in the afternoon into the evening hours but then

02:08 this whole area farther south, these are all areas that can see first some leftover severe

02:14 thunderstorms first thing in the morning but then again late in the afternoon and especially

02:19 in the overnight hours, we could see some more development down here.

02:22 This is an area where there's more uncertainty and things could be more isolated tomorrow

02:27 night but certainly a good risk for severe thunderstorms in those areas.

02:32 And near the end of this loop now, we landed on Saturday when we have numerous thunderstorms

02:36 in many areas.

02:37 So Saturday, we have a high risk, that's 3 out of 4 on the AccuWeather Threat Level Index

02:41 for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, areas from around Tulsa to Joplin, all the way up

02:45 into the Kansas City metro.

02:47 And what's the character of these thunderstorms on Saturday?

02:49 Is there going to be much of a change in maybe the distribution of hail, reports, damaging

02:54 wind and tornadoes and flooding?

02:56 Yeah, Saturday could be a day where we see it all kind of break out at once and all get

03:00 going all at once across this whole area and then move eastward into the overnight hours.

03:05 So still, the day is coming, we'll determine a little bit more about this but this could

03:11 be a large outbreak, a large area on Saturday.

03:14 Alright, we always appreciate your expertise, whether it's lake effect snow or severe thunderstorms.

03:18 Jake, good stuff, we appreciate that report.

03:20 Thanks, Bill.

03:21 We're going to stay connected with you guys here at the Forecast Operation.

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