Could snow fall in the week before Christmas?

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Paul Pastelok joins Bernie Rayno to discuss the long-range forecast, looking at weather patterns across the U.S. leading up to Christmas.

Transcript

00:00I want to bring in our long-range expert. Now, it's not Joe Lumberg, it's not the Crystal Ball,

00:04but I came up with a new name for our long-range, uh, our chief meteorologist and long-range,

00:10Paul Pastore, the wizard of the long-range, uh, Paul. And, Paul, I'll tell you what, I,

00:16you know, I need the hat and maybe a little, um, what's that, a little wand. Yeah, we need to have

00:22a wand. All right. Well, I, I've been stirring the wand because, you know, on Christmas I want

00:27it cold, I want some snowflakes in the air. We'll talk about the Christmas week upcoming here,

00:32but first, let's talk about the three things that we need to get ready for for next week, Paul.

00:38Well, you know, here's the thing. As we go into next week, we are going to be looking at

00:43a series of things that are kind of coming together. Uh, we'll start off, uh, in the, uh,

00:48middle of the nation, pretty on the mild side, and then I think we're going to turn colder as

00:53the week goes on. But the big news, I think, is going to be what's going to happen with this

00:57potential late week storm. At the end of the work week, we may have to watch a situation in the east

01:04for a potential storm. There may be two, we'll see on that. And then the rain and mountain snow

01:08continues in the west. It's just lined up, Bernie, across the northern Pacific right now.

01:14Yeah, let's take a look at the pattern for next week, Paul. Uh, and again, the real key is how

01:19strong is this jet stream coming south? There's a lot of different options with this, but does

01:25this does certainly appear as we get into Thursday and Friday with that dip in the jet stream.

01:31There's some options for storm to form on the eastern side of this. Right. And you got to go

01:37all the way back to east Asia and northern Pacific. This is what we look at weeks out in advance.

01:42We look at the situation setting up there gives us a good idea that there is going to be something

01:48on the east coast later this week. It's the orientation and whether or not it's in pieces

01:52and not coming together. That's a tough call from this far out, Bernie. But right now it looks like

01:57between the models, they're starting to closely get together. Uh, if you have a stronger system

02:03that evolves in the southeast and comes up the east coast, we are going to have a pretty monster

02:08system, uh, as far as snow and rain goes with a lot of cold on the backside. But if it's a

02:12flutter wave, similar to the one we just saw this past Wednesday on the east coast, that kind of

02:17wave can still bring some snow and mixed precipitation, but the cold won't be as extensive on

02:22the backside of it. But it does look as though, Paul, as we get into, let's say the upcoming

02:28weekend a week from now into the early Christmas week, if you live near the lakes and into at least

02:35the northeast, it's going to be setting up for another colder pattern or at least colder air

02:40returning, right? Yeah. And that, and that, what that does is, is whatever snow is on the ground

02:45will stick around that will stick around and especially around the lakes where we've had

02:50mass, you know, big heavy events that have taken place already. They're still looking at a pretty

02:55good situation for a white Christmas into the Christmas week, but look for it to be cold start

03:01into that Christmas week time pattern. This big high is going to build down towards the southeast

03:07and then a storm is going to form in the southern plains on the backside. The waters are still warm

03:12in the western gulf right now. It's going to pick up moisture and we're going to actually see rain

03:17spread in parts of Arkansas, Missouri and Illinois by about midweek near Christmas time.

03:22And that's going to actually route out the cold and actually turn milder, I think, around Christmas

03:27time. Unfortunately, if you're hoping for white Christmas in like D.C. or Philadelphia, it may be

03:32tough to do when you have temperatures above average. And so that's going to be a problem,

03:36Bernie, as that storm comes up towards the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, more storms,

03:41Paul, coming from northern California in toward the northwest. Any shot that any of this can get

03:46down into southern California. They haven't had much rain so so far this season. Yeah, I think

03:51their best shot for precipitation actually is this week. And then after that, it's going to be very

03:56tough. I think most of it's going to stay across northern California. And in fact, if higher

04:00pressure builds like we think over the basin region, Great Basin region, I think we're going

04:05to see is a lot of that moisture being pushed into parts of Oregon, Washington and western Canada.

04:10And those are the features that we're watching, Bernie, down the road, how they affect the east,

04:14when these systems develop and where they develop is a very crucial factor. So we're

04:18going to be watching that carefully. All right. The wizard, our expert meteorologist

04:23and in charge of a long range forecasting, Paul Pasolak. Paul, thanks for joining us.

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