- 5/4/2025
As tensions between the U.S. and Iran reach a boiling point, are we heading toward a full-scale conflict—or is there still time to step back from the brink?
On this gripping episode of Dialogue Works, Mohammad Marandi and Ambassador Chas Freeman deliver a sobering analysis of the dangerous geopolitical chessboard forming in the Middle East 🌍.
From nuclear deal breakdowns to proxy clashes and regional instability, this conversation exposes what Washington and Tehran aren't saying publicly — and why the clock may be ticking on diplomacy ⏳.
🎥 A must-watch for anyone trying to understand what’s next in U.S.–Iran relations.
👇 Comment below: Is war inevitable—or still preventable?
🔔 Subscribe for hard-hitting international analysis, straight from the experts.
#USIranTensions #IranCrisis #MiddleEastConflict #DialogueWorks #MohammadMarandi #ChasFreeman #Geopolitics #IranNews #USForeignPolicy #NuclearDeal #ProxyWar #IranUS #DiplomacyFailing #WarWarning #MiddleEastUpdate #IranConflict #AmericanEmpire #GlobalTensions #WarAndPeace #UnfilteredVoices
On this gripping episode of Dialogue Works, Mohammad Marandi and Ambassador Chas Freeman deliver a sobering analysis of the dangerous geopolitical chessboard forming in the Middle East 🌍.
From nuclear deal breakdowns to proxy clashes and regional instability, this conversation exposes what Washington and Tehran aren't saying publicly — and why the clock may be ticking on diplomacy ⏳.
🎥 A must-watch for anyone trying to understand what’s next in U.S.–Iran relations.
👇 Comment below: Is war inevitable—or still preventable?
🔔 Subscribe for hard-hitting international analysis, straight from the experts.
#USIranTensions #IranCrisis #MiddleEastConflict #DialogueWorks #MohammadMarandi #ChasFreeman #Geopolitics #IranNews #USForeignPolicy #NuclearDeal #ProxyWar #IranUS #DiplomacyFailing #WarWarning #MiddleEastUpdate #IranConflict #AmericanEmpire #GlobalTensions #WarAndPeace #UnfilteredVoices
Category
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NewsTranscript
00:00:00Hi, everybody. Today is Friday, May 2nd, 2025, and our friends, Ambassador Chas Freeman and
00:00:10Professor Miranda are back with us. Welcome back.
00:00:13Glad to be with you.
00:00:16Let's get started, Ambassador, with what has happened with the statement of the Secretary
00:00:22of Defense, the head of Pentagon. And here is what he said.
00:00:26Secretary Pete Hegseth sending a very strong warning to Iran over its backing of the Houthi
00:00:33terrorists in Yemen. The Defense Secretary posting on X, we see your lethal support to
00:00:38the Houthis. We know exactly what you're doing. You know very well what the U.S. military is
00:00:43capable of, and you were warned. You will pay the consequence at the time and place of our
00:00:49choosing. Managing Director of Beacon Global Strategies.
00:00:52Here is what he said, and your take, Ambassador.
00:00:58Well, I think that's childish bravado, and I believe I have heard that Professor Morandi lampooned
00:01:07it, produced a parody of it, talking about the United States. I think this raises real questions
00:01:15in my mind about both the negotiating strategy that the Trump administration has with regard
00:01:21to Iran and the region generally, if there is a strategy at all. And second, how well what
00:01:32is going on in the negotiations between the Iranian foreign minister and Mr. Witkoff is coordinated
00:01:40with the actions of the Department of Defense. This is a statement that is unnecessarily threatening,
00:01:52and it reflects divisions, I think, in the administration, which have been quite apparent from the beginning,
00:02:00between those who are what I would call America firsters, and those who are Israel firsters,
00:02:08people who adopt and embrace the Israeli agenda, which is essentially to reduce Iran to the status
00:02:16of Syria. That is a country with no sovereignty, with no ability to resist Israeli military punishment,
00:02:27and a country with no military power to threaten Israel or sustain a balance in the region.
00:02:35And I don't think that is the objective that is emerging from the discussions in Muscat and Rome,
00:02:43but we can't be sure what that is going to lead to because of the tensions within the administration and the
00:02:52unanswered question whether a return to something like the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA
00:03:04is acceptable to the United States. It's clearly not acceptable to Israel. Or will the United States
00:03:11follow the Israeli line and demand Iranian disarmament and no enrichment program at all? We don't know.
00:03:19And, but this is, this is hardly likely to help.
00:03:24Yeah. Professor Maranti.
00:03:27I really don't know. I don't comprehend what goes on in the White House and among
00:03:41those closely associated with Trump. Perhaps once upon a time I would have said that they're playing good
00:03:49cop, bad cop, bad cop, but I think that especially in this term, Trump's leadership is very chaotic
00:04:01and his team is chaotic. It's, it seems as if everyone, anyone, everyone says or is following his or
00:04:15her own policy. Uh, what I found strange also was that apparently the Witkoff retweeted, uh, the, uh, tweet of
00:04:27the secretary of defense, uh, which is bizarre enough in itself. Um, so what it really means, I think for Iran
00:04:40is that, uh, is that, uh, we cannot trust the United States. There's no person in charge. There's no
00:04:50feeling of, uh, uh, that there is stability in the White House and that if there is some agreement
00:04:58somewhere down the road that that will be, uh, adhered to. And it's not just Iran. The Iranians are
00:05:07closely monitoring what's going on with Ukraine. We see different, uh, figures associated with Trump
00:05:17taking different positions. Uh, the representative to Ukraine is saying one thing. Witkoff is saying
00:05:24something else. And then ultimately we hear that the United States is going to walk away.
00:05:30Uh, and it's, it's, it's also interesting that the United States behaves like a, as if it's the middleman,
00:05:36whereas it pushed Ukraine into this situation in the first place. And it's not as if Trump does say
00:05:43that it's Biden's war, but during his presidency, Trump continued to push for this escalation for
00:05:53four years. So, uh, Iran looks at that. Iran looks at the chaos surrounding the trade war, the tariff war,
00:06:01uh, the, uh, different positions taken by senior officials, the retreat of Trump without the knowledge of,
00:06:10uh, uh, people in, uh, in charge or some people in charge of policy with regards to tariffs. When Iran looks,
00:06:19or when we see, um, Gaza that Trump through Witkoff engineers, a ceasefire, then literally days later calls for
00:06:30ethnic cleansing and Palestine and supports the restart of the genocide. This sort of chaos
00:06:38does not indicate that there's some good cop, bad cop, uh, policy. It just indicates that there's
00:06:45chaos and that makes it, uh, I think almost impossible for the Iranians to negotiate, uh, a deal with the
00:06:55United States. Um, and the fact is that the Iranians are not going to accept, uh, a, another JCPOA. If
00:07:04there's going to be a deal, the Iranians will want to deal where the Americans cannot just simply ignore
00:07:11it or tear it or tear it apart or walk away from it. There will have to be, uh, some means to protect the
00:07:19deal, uh, where the United States will pay a political price or a price for, um, violating the deal.
00:07:29It's good. I think the model that we saw three years ago, uh, will be perhaps more, uh, acceptable to
00:07:39Iran than the JCPOA. And the model three years ago also needs to be updated because Iran's technological
00:07:46advances, uh, have to be taken into account. The United States has sanctioned Iran all this time.
00:07:52If the Americans are going to compensate for the sanctions that they've imposed on Iran,
00:07:56that's one thing, but if they don't, then the Iranians want to preserve their achievements.
00:08:00So when you take that into consideration, the fact that the Iranians are not going to,
00:08:07not only are they not going to mothball their nuclear program, they're not going to accept going
00:08:12back to what existed years ago. And then on the other side of the table, you see this utter chaos.
00:08:19Um, I'm not, uh, I don't see any reason to be very optimistic about the deal.
00:08:27Ambassador, with the case of chaos, we can consider the firing of Mike Walls being part of that picture.
00:08:36And we know that Mike Walls was so much in favor of, he supported Israel. But do you think that
00:08:46if Marco Rubio assumes the position of Mike Walls, that would bring some sort of change,
00:08:53or are we going to see the same sort of manner?
00:08:56Well, I, I think the word chaos is a good word for this situation. Um, Mr. Walls
00:09:04has not effectively coordinated
00:09:05any kind of policy process, uh, within the US government, uh, in part because the commander in
00:09:13chief, the president, uh, insists on making all the decisions and does so on a completely
00:09:20haphazard basis without any support from staff. He seems to listen to the last person who spoke to
00:09:28him and to act on that opinion. Uh, so I don't know that Mr. Walls'
00:09:33departure, um, which apparently was, um, instigated by a right-wing
00:09:39Zionist activist, Laura Loomer, uh, who accused him, uh, of being disloyal to Trump or critical of
00:09:47Trump. Uh, I think critical rather than disloyal is the right word. Uh, and she brought forth
00:09:53apparently some, uh, visual evidence, documentary evidence of his having criticized Mr. Trump in an
00:09:59earlier period. Um, and for that crime, uh, mainly he was dismissed. Of course, there was also the signal,
00:10:08uh, called telephone conversation. Uh, and, um, it's pretty clear that he did not divorce
00:10:16signal. He continued to use it. There are photographs from the, um, cabinet room in the
00:10:22White House showing him using signal, uh, and in fact, using an Israeli, uh, uh, program to download,
00:10:32uh, and record, uh, his, uh, his, his files on the, on the telephone. So there were lots of reasons,
00:10:39political and otherwise, to get rid of him. Um, and, uh, I think going back to the
00:10:45subject of, uh, U S Iranian talks, I'd make a number of comments. Uh, well, let me just say
00:10:52Marco Rubio, um, is, you know, is, is, uh, is, uh, is an outsider who is trying to get,
00:10:59become an insider, uh, as secretary of state. He has been marginalized by Steve Whitcoff. It's not
00:11:06clear, uh, uh, uh, how much he knows how to operate a policy process within the U S government
00:11:14or whether Mr. Trump even wants fun. Uh, so I'm not sure what difference this really makes.
00:11:19It is true that, uh, Mr. Walts, uh, was a hardliner, um, uh, uh, and very much a, a member of Israel
00:11:28first, uh, within the administration. Uh, Mr. Rubio seems to be the same. Uh, so I don't think you can
00:11:35read too much into this from that. Uh, but having said that, um, we have the, the problem that, um,
00:11:44Mr. Netanyahu's position, which seems to have great influence over the president is that a Libyan
00:11:52solution should be applied to Iran. That means, uh, Americans go in and physically destroy everything
00:12:01in Iran, inspect it, and basically run Iran for a while, um, in order to implement whatever
00:12:08disarmament agreement has been, uh, reached. Uh, there's no way in my view, um, I'm ready to be
00:12:15corrected, but I don't believe there's any way any Iranian nationalists could ever accept such an
00:12:22outcome and, um, uh, uh, such a humiliation for a proud nation. So, um, I think this is essentially a
00:12:31non-starter and we're left with the problem that we have, uh, six, uh, B2s, um, sitting in Diego Garcia
00:12:40with appropriate tanker support for, uh, escorts and for the bombers themselves aimed at Iran. Um, and,
00:12:49uh, of course, uh, what I'm hearing now is, uh, and this is very relevant, that Iranian preparations for
00:12:58an attack have been so thorough and effective, uh, that only nuclear weapons could, uh, destroy them.
00:13:07Uh, and so this leads automatically both in Israel and in the United States to discussion of a nuclear
00:13:14attack, um, horrendous as that would be. Uh, here, I think the United States retains
00:13:21a fair amount of the traditional nuclear, uh, allergy, uh, the understanding that crossing the
00:13:30threshold into a second American use of nuclear weapons against an adversary would be, uh, a step
00:13:38too far and would unlock Pandora's box, uh, and lead to the vast proliferation of nuclear weapons
00:13:46globally. I'm not sure that Israel shares any of that, uh, caution. Uh, so, um, I think we're at a,
00:13:56we're at a moment that is, it's all, we've all recognized is very dangerous, but perhaps we haven't
00:14:02recognized quite how dangerous it is. And we have to, have to hope that sanity, reason prevail. Uh, and I
00:14:11have to say in Washington, um, uh, that will not be an easy thing to happen at the moment. Um, there
00:14:19are too many divisions, they're too many, it's too much to use, uh, Mohamed Merandi's word chaos, uh, to be
00:14:27able to predict what will happen. Yeah. Professor Merandi, Marco Rubio demands Iran walk away from
00:14:35uranium enrichment and long range missiles. When it comes to Ukraine, we know that what Russia wants,
00:14:43they said, these are the red lines on the part of Russians. What are the red lines on the part of
00:14:48Iranians? Iranians have said it, uh, repeatedly that, uh, they will not negotiate their allies in
00:14:58the region. They will not negotiate their conventional military capability and they won't
00:15:06negotiate, uh, their right to have a peaceful nuclear program. And, uh, I don't see any chance of
00:15:15that changing. We have to remember that, uh, during the Trump years, when he tore up the deal and
00:15:23reimpose maximum pressure sanctions, because the maximum pressure sanctions began with Obama, when
00:15:30he targeted ordinary Iranians through those sanctions, Trump revived those sanctions, uh,
00:15:36strengthened them. Uh, I think Obama called them, uh, brutal sanctions and, uh, Trump called them
00:15:47crippling sanctions or vice versa. But in any case, the objective was to brutalize the Iranian population,
00:15:54to cripple the Iranian population, but Trump didn't get his way. The Iranians, uh, never submitted,
00:16:03uh, their sovereignty. They did not accept a new deal imposed by Trump under, uh, those circumstances
00:16:14that he imposed. And today the situation is very different from, uh, uh, the Trump years, uh, that we
00:16:22had during his first presidency. Uh, China's on the rise. It's dropped much stronger today than it was
00:16:31before. It is much more, um, uh, it has, it has much, it's much more angry towards the United States
00:16:41because of the trade war. The China, the Chinese, uh, um, um, um, I, I, um, I'd be cautious in front of
00:16:50Chaz to speak about the Chinese with his vast experience, but I just returned from China this morning.
00:16:56Uh, the Chinese have changed significantly. The Chinese always, it's very, they, their policy
00:17:04changes very slowly. They are, uh, very slow to change, but what we've seen over the past
00:17:12hundred days or so since the policy in Washington changed towards China, in my opinion is a quite
00:17:19radical shift and that benefits Iran Chinese relations. So China is stronger today, relatively
00:17:27speaking than seven, eight years ago. It's relationship with Iran is improving, uh, rapidly
00:17:35similar to how the Iran Russia relationship improved over the war in Ukraine. The Iran China relationship
00:17:42is improving as well. And then we see that Iran's relations across the global South or the global
00:17:48majority. They've also evolved and improved, but in the Persian Gulf region, you see a sea change in
00:17:54mentality. The son of the Saudi King has come to Iran, the minister of defense, uh, seeking better ties.
00:18:03Uh, this is the same Saudi Arabia that a decade ago was seeking war. And of course the Emiratis and
00:18:11others were seeking war as well. But today they know that Iran's conventional capabilities
00:18:17are so much greater than what existed in the past that any war would lead to, uh, I believe the
00:18:24destruction of, of all of the regimes in the Persian Gulf region. So, uh, they want better ties, uh,
00:18:33Russia and China have much better ties. The United States has its plate plate full with trade war and war
00:18:41Ukraine and, uh, internal problems. So I don't see any reason why the Iranians would become any softer
00:18:48at the negotiating table than before. In fact, I think it will be the opposite. The Iranians will be
00:18:54tougher, not irrational. I think the Iranians are more than willing to have a deal, but a deal that
00:19:01respects Iran sovereignty. I don't see that happening. Trump doesn't have the tools
00:19:07ultimately that he had before just, we saw just yesterday on truth social, he spoke about secondary
00:19:15sanctions and how any country that does deals with Iran with regards to the oil and petrochemical
00:19:23industry, they will be sanctioned. It's not going to change Iran's export. I think he'll,
00:19:28it won't have any significant impact, uh, on Iranian oil or petrochemical exports.
00:19:33And that I think is one of the, a sign of the change, uh, seven, eight years ago, Trump, um,
00:19:42was able to, uh, prevent Iran from exporting, but now Iran's partners are going to ignore Trump. China
00:19:50is not going to, uh, behave like it did seven, eight years ago, for example.
00:19:56If I may comment, uh, name on a number of issues, uh, implicit in, uh, professor Miranda's comments.
00:20:07The first is, uh, I think the use of the word deal, uh, is misleading. We don't need a deal,
00:20:13which is a transaction. We need an agreement. Uh, we need an agreement that will provide a lasting basis
00:20:21for coexistence, hopefully cooperation, but if not that, at least peaceful coexistence. Um, and here,
00:20:30uh, I'd note that it's not just, uh, the world that has changed in the United States,
00:20:35um, and, uh, uh, and the Chinese, um, um, I, I agree with professor Morandi. The Chinese are
00:20:43in a completely intransigent mood. Uh, they are not going to sacrifice, uh, their dignity for the
00:20:50sake of, uh, an agreement, uh, with the United States when they see the United States as, uh,
00:20:57having a policy toward China, very parallel to the one that we followed toward Iran, namely aimed at
00:21:02regime change and weakening and isolating, uh, them, uh, which they will not accept. Uh, and they have the
00:21:09power now economically and otherwise, uh, to, uh, prevail in a trade war. And they,
00:21:15they see that. So they are going to wait this out. They won't stop talking because they are
00:21:21intelligent diplomatically and you should always maintain a dialogue. So we see now hints of some
00:21:29sort of effort, uh, to deal with the fentanyl issue. If the Americans could define what the Chinese
00:21:36have to do, they haven't done already. I mean, the fact is that, um, the United States has 5% or less
00:21:44of the world's population, but it accounts for 80% of the world's, uh, opioid consumption.
00:21:51From the Chinese perspective, this is all a very ironic reversal of the situation in the opium war,
00:21:58when, uh, uh, China was weakened by drug addiction, um, through foreign interference.
00:22:05So, um, anyway, I won't go on about that, but let me make a couple of other comments about changes.
00:22:11Um, when the Islamic Republic was born, uh, there was a stereotype of it. I won't, uh, argue that it
00:22:20was correct, uh, but it was certainly there that, that, that it was a country of religious fanatics
00:22:27bent on regional hegemony. That was the stereotype that was imposed by, and it led to the formation of
00:22:34the Gulf Cooperation Council, uh, across the other side of the Persian Gulf. But now, uh, the country
00:22:41that is religiously fanatic, territorially expansive, and interested in hegemony is Israel, and not Iran.
00:22:50And Iran, uh, for whatever reason has, is much less ambitious than it was, uh, and, uh, Israel is more
00:22:58ambitious. Uh, and so this creates a security issue for everybody in the Persian Gulf. And it raises
00:23:07a question that I've pondered, and I welcome Professor Miranda's thoughts on this. Um, when we had a
00:23:16division of Europe, uh, in the Cold War, uh, and a danger of nuclear exchanges, uh, and great havoc,
00:23:23um, uh, uh, we came up with the, uh, Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe. And this
00:23:31essentially brought together, uh, on the basis of, uh, basically a religious basis, the basis of ethical
00:23:40traditions in both, uh, Roman Catholic Western theology and Russian Orthodox theology. We found enough
00:23:50common points of agreement between these traditions to create a dialogue and a process that, that
00:23:59basically, uh, led in the end, uh, to, uh, the end of the Cold War and, um, uh, the beginning of
00:24:06something new. Now, we may not have dealt with that very effectively, but it was a major opportunity.
00:24:12And I have always wondered why, given, you know, as an outsider, not an out-a-Muslim, um,
00:24:20I look at Shia and Sunni Islam, and I see many points in common. Where are the statesmen on the
00:24:27two sides of the Persian Gulf who can reach across it to identify those points in common
00:24:35and build a cooperative organization, a dialogue, a system, uh, with, for dealing with the security and
00:24:44other issues, economic issues, development issues in the region? Um, we have institutions like the
00:24:52Organization of the Islamic Conference. Uh, we have the, uh, the Islamic, uh, uh, uh, development
00:25:00program based in Jeddah. We have, uh, we have institutions within Islam that are bridges between
00:25:07the two traditions, major traditions. Of course, there are others as well. And the Alawites are not
00:25:14doing so well at the moment in Syria as a result. But, um, uh, where is the, um, sense in Tehran,
00:25:26in Riyadh, in Doha, in Abu Dhabi, uh, to explore what could be done, uh, to basically achieve independence,
00:25:40uh, from global geopolitics for the region? Because that's what this would mean. It would mean taking,
00:25:47um, the future into the hands of the people in the region on the basis of agreed principles.
00:25:54So I pose this. It's probably an odd moment to raise this question when we're confronting
00:26:00the danger of a disastrous war, uh, in the region. But maybe that is a good time
00:26:06to pull up short and ask what sorts of alternatives to this are there? Um, and, um, uh, in other words,
00:26:14if you can't have any help from the great powers outside the region, what can you do inside it among
00:26:20yourselves? Professor, I think we can bring Azerbaijan to the picture because we had
00:26:28President Pizeshkian's visit to Azerbaijan. He, he's, he mentioned the same point that
00:26:33Ambassador was talking about. Yes, I, I think that, uh, that's really what the Iranians have tried to do
00:26:41on numerous occasions. I recall after the Iran Iraq war, although the Saudis were deeply involved in
00:26:52the war, the Saudis, the Kuwaitis, they were funding Saddam Hussein's army and, uh, they were providing
00:27:00intelligence for the Saudis in particular through the, uh, AWACS, uh, planes that were provided by the United
00:27:08States, uh, to, uh, to gather intelligence against, uh, Iran against Iran and for the, for the sake of
00:27:16Saddam Hussein. But when the war came to an end, uh, and subsequently Saddam went and invited Kuwait,
00:27:28uh, the Iranians gave refuge to Kuwaitis and, uh, Iran was open to rapprochement. Real re, uh, the, the, the,
00:27:44the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia was rebuilt. And, uh, when the, um, Islamic conference was
00:27:53held in Tehran, uh, the crown prince at that time, uh, and subsequent King Abdullah, uh, he attended and
00:28:04he had private conversations with the leader and Mr. Rafsanjani and also the president at that time.
00:28:12But the, I think the real problem has been, uh, foreign manipulation and meaning the United States
00:28:19in particular and how they've, they've always tried to divide the region, even, uh, even though when
00:28:26Iran had enormous problems with Qatar, when the Saudis and the Emiratis imposed a siege on
00:28:34Qatar, the Iranians, uh, basically saved the country by, uh, keeping their airspace open by facilitating
00:28:44trade. Iran could have done a deal to bring down the regime and probably they could have taken
00:28:49a piece of the cake. And, uh, there are some in Iran who still say that Iran made a mistake back then.
00:28:55I don't, I think that it, that would have been an unprincipled position to take. And, uh,
00:29:02even though Qatar has done Iran great harm in the region, great harm, and it has, it's really the,
00:29:08the driving force between ISIS and Al Qaeda. It has been for the, since 2011, but I think that the Iran's
00:29:15position was a moral position in that regard. And also as I'm sure Chaz knows when general Soleimani
00:29:25was murdered, he was on his way to see the Iraqi prime minister. Uh, the Saudis had sent a message to
00:29:33him, uh, in the context of rapprochement in order to, uh, to, to bring about some sort of rapprochement.
00:29:41I don't know who began the discussion, possibly the Iraqi prime minister, possibly general Soleimani,
00:29:48but he was going there to, to speak to the prime minister. The prime minister at that time told me
00:29:53personally, uh, other Dr. Adel Abdul Mahdi, uh, that, uh, he was going to have breakfast with, uh,
00:30:02general Soleimani to, to have this discussion. And I'm sure that the Americans and Israelis knew that
00:30:09they have their, they have, you know, they have people all over Baghdad and, uh, that's probably
00:30:16one reason why they murdered him, uh, that night. So I, I think that the, uh, that the, I don't see
00:30:23any reason why that, what, what Chaz is saying is not possible. I think that that is something that
00:30:29the Iranians and the Saudis and others would pursue. And ironically, I think that the Chinese, uh, played a
00:30:39very constructive role in helping build another bridge or rebuild the bridge between Iran and Saudi
00:30:46Arabia, whereas the Americans have been trying to, and the Europeans, they've been trying to
00:30:51destroy any bridges that exist, uh, between Iran and its neighbors and the Persian Gulf region.
00:30:58I, again, and I agree completely. One reason why the Saudis are concerned is the behavior of the Israeli,
00:31:10the Israeli regime right now. And that also draws them towards Iran. But I think there's also another
00:31:16force and that is, uh, or a lack of force. And that is the weakness coming that they see in Washington,
00:31:23the weakness that they see in the West. And they want to sort of hedge their bets. As they say,
00:31:31uh, they want to broaden their relationships, not just with China and Russia, but also with Iran.
00:31:36I still believe that the countries in the Persian Gulf, the, uh, family regimes in the Persian Gulf,
00:31:42that they are still Western oriented after all, that's where their money is. That's where they go for
00:31:48vacation. That's where they send their people, uh, for, uh, for education. But I think that they are
00:31:55beginning to see that, uh, the West is not enough that this so-called U S umbrella, protective umbrella,
00:32:03which is not really a, uh, protective, but I think it's, it's there to keep them, uh, under control.
00:32:11I think they feel that, uh, the United States doesn't have that sort of authority anymore. So that does
00:32:17provide an opportunity for real dialogue for rapprochement. And I don't think it's just about
00:32:26when Iran can have, I mean, 40 years ago, when I was young, Iranian antagonism, uh, towards the Soviet
00:32:35Union was identical to almost towards, uh, as to, uh, compared to its, uh, views of the United States.
00:32:43But, uh, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, we saw fundamental change in the way in which the,
00:32:49the Russians behave towards Iran. And now we see that the relationship between Iran and Russia are
00:32:56probably are definitely better than they've ever been before in history. Russia is Orthodox. Iran is,
00:33:03uh, Muslim is, uh, Shia. Uh, so I, I, I, you know, or Iran and China, the relationship between Iran and
00:33:12China today is, uh, as we speak is better than it's been. I don't, I can't be safe or certain,
00:33:20but I think it's probably more important at least than it's ever been for the last few hundred years.
00:33:28China is not Muslim, but it's, that's, that's not the problem. The problem for Iran has been
00:33:34that the United States, uh, has, uh, uh, hatred towards Iran, which is deeply linked, uh, with its,
00:33:42the U.S. relationship with Israel. And, uh, it's something that, uh, I think at least for the time
00:33:48being, uh, is not, uh, nothing, not much can be done about this animosity. Yeah. Ambassador, when
00:34:03Sergey Lavrov was here in Brazil, he was asked, he was, he had an interview with Global News
00:34:09in which he mentioned that Russia is willing to improve its relationship with the United States,
00:34:16but not at, at the expense of its allies. I would assume he's talking about Iran and China. And
00:34:26this... I'm not sure who he's talking about, but that is the standard, um, diplomatic principle. Um,
00:34:33I was part of the opening to China with President Nixon. Um, if you go back and look at the Shanghai
00:34:39communique, which resulted from that visit, you will find that the first five pages are a very
00:34:46blunt, uh, definition of the differences between us with respect to our various client states and,
00:34:54and, uh, and, and allies or partners. And so we had to have a discussion about North versus South Korea,
00:35:01North Vietnam versus South Vietnam, Indochina, the Kashmir issue and other things, uh, in order to,
00:35:08and we had to make it public that we had that discussion in order to reassure our respective
00:35:14friends, China's friends in Hanoi, ours in Saigon, that we were not selling them out.
00:35:20So I think that's what Mr. Lavrov is saying, uh, that he's the same principle that, uh,
00:35:26Professor Morandi, uh, described as applying to, uh, Iranian foreign policy, namely, uh, that Iran will not
00:35:33negotiate on behalf of the resistance movements it supports, um, because it values those for a variety of
00:35:42reasons. So, um, I, I think that's, uh, that's pretty clear. Um, it, so I will, uh, stop here, but, uh,
00:35:54I do think, uh, it is interesting, um, that, uh, national interests can transcend religious differences,
00:36:03whether they're with Russian Orthodoxy and Iranian or whether, uh, they are, uh, between China and Iran
00:36:15because, um, and here I will confess that I had something to do with introducing China to Iran,
00:36:24um, as part of the Cold War effort to isolate the Soviet Union. Uh, so I'm very familiar with that
00:36:30dynamic, uh, and I will, for, I will shock, uh, uh, the two Muslim opera, uh, people I'm speaking with
00:36:40when I tell you what Confucius replied to his disciples when they asked him whether there was
00:36:48a God in an afterlife. And he said, well, those are very good questions. He said, um, there's so much
00:36:54for me to do right now down here. I haven't had time to think about them. Oh, so this is the Chinese
00:37:02mentality, uh, which is very pragmatic. If you go to a Buddhist, a Lama temple in China and see people
00:37:10burning incense and worshiping idols, and you ask them whether they believe in it, they'll say,
00:37:18not really, but what if it's true? I'm just taking out an insurance policy.
00:37:23Um, so these are people who think very pragmatic. But to come back to the Persian Gulf, um, it does seem
00:37:31to me that, um, there, it, it should be possible, uh, to build something not only on shared national
00:37:39interests now threatened by, uh, the predations of Israel. And I, in fact, see evidence that that is
00:37:46happening, uh, that that is driving people across the Persian Gulf, uh, to explore each other. Um,
00:37:53Professor Mirandi mentioned, uh, in some man's visit to Tehran, uh, that is, uh, a sign of this.
00:38:02But I think there also is, there's a missing piece, which is an effort to find reconciliation
00:38:09through common, common religious principles. Um, and, um, uh, I don't think that's impossible.
00:38:16And here I will just say, uh, Professor Mirandi mentioned, uh, the late, uh, King Abdullah,
00:38:22who was a very good friend of mine. Uh, and, um, I used to go see him when I was ambassador. Uh,
00:38:29and, uh, on one occasion, this was a, would have been probably in 19, the spring of 1992. Um,
00:38:39I was instructed to go brief him on the Iranian nuclear program, uh, which I was told was two,
00:38:45just two years away from producing a bomb. And, um, I went and, uh, talked to the crown prince then.
00:38:53And he, he, he said then, as he said later, look, you're one of the few people who even
00:38:58pays attention to me because the King doesn't consult me on anything. Um, and, uh, uh, anyway,
00:39:05I enjoyed my conversations with him. He was a wise man. And, um, but he was rabidly anti-Persian,
00:39:13rabidly anti-Persian. He basically foamed at the mouth when you mentioned anything about Shia or
00:39:20Persian, uh, uh, traditions or presence. And yet when he became king, when he became the regent,
00:39:27not the king, the first thing he did was to reach out to Rafsa Janine. Uh, he, he saw this
00:39:34and I asked him about it in a private meeting. I said, why this is a surprise given the way you seem
00:39:40to feel about, uh, Iran. And he said, now I'm in charge. I must act in the interest of the nation.
00:39:47And he did that. And he also opened the national dialogue on religious matters.
00:39:53And he endowed an institution in Vienna for, uh, trans-religious dialogue. So this man who was
00:40:01self-educated, very, uh, very devout, uh, in his religious beliefs, uh, had a degree of open-mindedness
00:40:14and sense of statecraft that allowed him to transcend his own prejudices.
00:40:20And this, I think, is what we need. And here, I would also say, uh, in closing, something about, uh,
00:40:29the current king of Saudi Arabia, uh, who is marginalized, of course, by his son,
00:40:36the current prince because of his health. Uh, but, uh, when I first met him, he told me, uh,
00:40:46he had been given two pieces of advice, right, by his brother, Fahid, then the king.
00:40:52Fahid told him, you must do two things to prepare if you become king. You must learn English, he said.
00:40:59Well, Salman tried very hard to do that, but he had no ability at languages at all. And so he failed.
00:41:07Um, and the second thing he said is, you must study the lore, the history of Islamic statecraft.
00:41:15And Salman hired tutors to learn that. And I watched him, over the course of more than a decade,
00:41:24climb a ladder of knowledge. And so when I would ask him about something going on in Iraq,
00:41:32this is long after I ceased to be an ambassador, that I would just go to see him because I enjoyed
00:41:38talking to him and hearing him. Um, he would say, well, this reminds me of something in Alain de Luz.
00:41:45This emirate and that emirate had a choral and they did this and it didn't work, but it might work
00:41:51in this case. So this is the man who drew on that body of common historical knowledge, um, and, uh,
00:42:00applied it intelligently. Uh, and I find it difficult to believe, uh, that, uh, a nation, uh, run by a
00:42:10theocracy, uh, does not have similar depths of knowledge about Islamic statecraft, as well as the
00:42:17Shah Nahmeh and other sources, uh, of Iranian tradition, which are very rich. Uh, you should read
00:42:25Ferruz, I guess, but anyway, um, um, um, so I, I, I think, uh, something is possible, um, and the fact
00:42:36that the United States is marginalizing itself, um, is an invitation for people in the region to
00:42:43seize the initiative. If Fred Simran is right about, uh, why Soleimani was murdered, um, and you think
00:42:52he may well be right about that. Uh, this is, uh, an opportunity, uh, for those who prefer peace to war
00:43:00and who prefer cooperation to antagonism to see what they can do.
00:43:07Yeah. Professor, one of the signs that the region needs to think about what's going on within the
00:43:14region is the situation in Syria. We know what has happened and the new government in Syria, even
00:43:20we even having HTC and, uh, Daesh al-Qaeda in Syria is not that much
00:43:30satisfactory for Israel and Israel has attacked Damascus as yesterday. And do you think that what
00:43:40is happening right now in Syria and the way that we know that they're trying to put pressure on Lebanon
00:43:46as well? If they attack Syria, which is trying to do everything to say to Israel, we are not going
00:43:52to attack you. We are not going to have anything to do with you. And they're trying to put pressure
00:43:59on government in Lebanon in order to disarm Hezbollah while Israel is attacking Lebanon. How do you see the
00:44:11situation in Syria and how, what is the connection? What can we learn for the case of Lebanon?
00:44:17Well, just one thing I'd like to add to what, uh, Chaz says, uh, said is, um, I think, which is significant. Um,
00:44:29when, uh, Khaled bin Salman came to Tehran, the Saudi defense minister, he met, uh, the leader Ayatollah
00:44:42Khamenei and, uh, uh, he told him, he told the Saudi defense minister that before years before, uh,
00:44:54Crown Prince Abdullah, who was effectively the king at that time. Um, when he was here, I said,
00:45:02we, I, I paraphrase, I don't remember the exact words, but he was saying that
00:45:06we will go as far as you want in developing relations. In other words, if you want to have
00:45:16better relations, we will, we will go as far, we can go as far as, uh, as, as, as you wish. Uh, but I think
00:45:28the, the, this would happen later on in Saudi Arabia and, and so on prevented that from happening.
00:45:36Uh, but he also, when he spoke to the Saudi defense minister, he said something very interesting. And
00:45:40that was that we are willing to provide our, uh, technological and experiences or our, uh, advances
00:45:49to Saudi Arabia. And many in Iran interpret that as meaning that we are willing to help Saudi Arabia,
00:45:56uh, with its nuclear program, meaning, and nuclear enrichment in particular. And I think that
00:46:04is a very, very significant gesture. Now, I doubt that the Saudis would take that offer, uh, for a host of
00:46:13different reasons, but I, if they, if they wanted, I'm sure the Iranians would, would do that for them.
00:46:20So the Iranians are very serious about the relationship. Uh, even though, as I said, the
00:46:27history, historically speaking, they were with Saddam Hussein, then they spread Wahhabism. Later on,
00:46:33to a large degree, and sadly, uh, Turkey and Qatar took over this, uh, Salafism and support for Salafism.
00:46:44And we saw just a couple of, a few days ago, I don't know if you, you, I'm sure both of you have seen the
00:46:49interview of the, uh, Pakistani defense minister on Sky News, where he said we did the dirty work for
00:46:57Western intelligence agencies for decades. I'm worried that I, I, I believe perhaps in the years
00:47:03to come, some Turkish foreign minister, uh, will be saying the same thing and how the destruction
00:47:09that we've seen in Syria is really thanks to Mr. Erdogan and, and Qatar to a large degree. So
00:47:17I think the possibility for rapprochement is, is there. I think we may be moving in that direction.
00:47:25Uh, as things stand, the relationship with Saudi Arabia today is much better. Um, with regards to
00:47:32Syria, Syria is, is, is, is, is a catastrophe. And I think the, uh,
00:47:40the Israeli regime, what they're trying to do right now is to, uh, through the stupidity of, uh,
00:47:50Jolani and perhaps, um, this is intentional people behind with Jolani or perhaps
00:48:01intelligence, uh, Turkish intelligence are pushing things in this direction and, uh, intentionally,
00:48:07I, I don't know, but what Jolani is doing is he's giving the Israeli regime an excuse to separate,
00:48:16to, um, create a division in Syria between the Druze and the government. And, uh, the Israelis have
00:48:26already occupied huge parts of Syria after the fall of the, uh, uh, of president, of former president
00:48:35Assad, um, that the areas that the Israelis have taken, I've been to many of these areas. They are
00:48:40the most important areas in the country. And I think maybe 30 to 40% of the country's water comes from
00:48:47those areas, the heights, the, the snow, the, the water. It's, it's just, it's key for the, for the
00:48:53survival of Damascus and for that Damascus to be, uh, a meaningful city. It's key for Syria to have
00:49:01control of them, but these areas and Israelis have taken all of them. And now through the stupidity of, uh,
00:49:08uh, Jolani's, uh, forces, the Al-Qaeda or Al-Qaeda and ISIS forces and the other groups, uh, they are
00:49:20pushing, uh, the Jews towards Israel, which I think is in some, this is intentional. Someone, uh, the
00:49:27Israelis, others are behind this because they want Syria to be broken. They want to balkanize Syria.
00:49:36Now, this isn't, it's not that easy because, uh, it's, it's, it, this is not an easy solution that
00:49:46necessarily, uh, is all beneficial for the Israeli regime. So, for example, in Lebanon, the Druze leader,
00:49:59he sees Jolani's actions and that pushes him closer towards Hezbollah.
00:50:07Or, for example, you see how the Lebanese government is trying to dismantle Hamas and
00:50:16Islamic Jihad's military capabilities. And that is something that the Sunni community in Lebanon
00:50:26is taking note of or Jolani's antagonism towards the Palestinians and the recent arrests of Islamic Jihad
00:50:36members in Syria. This is changing the narrative, uh, in Syria and among many who before, for whatever
00:50:47reason, either sided with Jolani and the Turks and the Qataris and the Americans and this regime change
00:50:56operation or operation timber sycamore. It is changing the narrative. It is changing how they perceive this,
00:51:03the events of the last 10, 15 years. And that actually, and I've, I've seen anecdotal evidence of this, that
00:51:12has actually strengthened, uh, the status and stature of the resistance. Because many are saying that
00:51:20what has said Hassan Nasrullah was concerned about with regards to the takeover of Syria by these extremist
00:51:27groups, it turned out to be correct. Uh, many, uh, people who I, well, people who I know in Lebanon,
00:51:33uh, who were more critical of the position taken by the resistance in Syria today, people who I know,
00:51:41I'm not, I'm not saying everyone is like that, but people who I know are today, they have very different
00:51:47views of what has happened in Syria than they'd had a year ago or six months ago or four or five months ago.
00:51:56So it's very complicated, but, uh, my biggest concern right now is that they are pushing
00:52:03Syria towards, uh, um, um, a, uh, fragmentation. And this, of course, is not something that's good
00:52:15for Jolani either because, uh, Jolani, when, when he focused on the Alawites and when he carried out
00:52:22genocidal attacks, or at least when he allowed genocidal attacks to take place alongside the coast,
00:52:28some people tried to, uh, you know, apologists said that this was because of
00:52:35Assad or because of the previous regime, but now that he's directed his focus on the Druze and also
00:52:42there's talk, you know, there's a lot of, uh, the, the, the rhetoric about the Kurds is, is very similar
00:52:48as well. I think that is making Jolani's support base smaller and smaller. I don't think he's going to last.
00:52:58I don't think the regime will last, but Syria is in a, in a very, very dark place and it's unclear
00:53:05where it's going to go. But right now, um, actually the resistance is not being harmed by this.
00:53:14Syria is being harmed and it is tragic, but Hezbollah's stature is actually enhanced when
00:53:23its antagonists are exposed in this way. And the Israeli regime, while it benefits from this
00:53:30balkanization, as I said, in some respects, but it is overstretched and its presence in Syria alongside
00:53:40its, uh, continued, uh, presence, uh, on the Lebanese border. It's the, the genocide in Gaza,
00:53:49the, uh, the intensification of ethnic cleansing and the West Bank and the periodical missiles that
00:53:56come from Yemen, uh, that are fired at Tel Aviv and other, um, places. Uh, this is, uh, alongside the
00:54:07deep divisions that we see inside Israel, which I think are probably the most important thing of all
00:54:13that are least discussed in different circles. Uh, I think these actually show that the, the Israelis are
00:54:21in a, in a very, uh, difficult position. I think one reason, or maybe the main reason why the Israelis are, or
00:54:28Netanyahu is so keen on attack, on a, on an attack against Iran by the Americans is because he, the situation in
00:54:37Israel is so bad and his situation is so bad. I actually believe that the reason why he launched
00:54:43the war against Lebanon was because he needed a war. And, uh, so he needs perpetual war. He needs
00:54:50perpetual conflict in, or I think that's my interpretation in order to remain in power, uh, under these, uh,
00:54:58extraordinary circumstances inside Israel itself. I won't disagree with the analysis of Israeli
00:55:08motivations. Um, but there are a number of things you just said that I like to comment on. Uh, the first
00:55:15is that, uh, the Supreme leader is obviously very well advised or very clever to note that the Saudis and
00:55:23Iranians share an interest in the right to enrich uranium. Um, and, uh, we'll see if that leads to
00:55:30anything. Uh, but this is of course the principal issue at, uh, at stake in a U S discussions with,
00:55:38with Saudi Arabia about, uh, the installation of nuclear reactors. The Saudis are in active discussions
00:55:44with the Chinese, the South Koreans and others on this subject. Um, and, uh, but that's an interest,
00:55:52very interesting point that I hadn't really focused on. Um, second, uh, the Israeli policies remind me of
00:56:01those described by Tacitus with respect to the Roman policy in Britain, they made a desert and called it
00:56:08peace. Uh, and I'm thinking of Mao Zedong's observation. The gorillas are like fish in the sea
00:56:16and they hide among other fish. Uh, but the Israeli answer is to take, try to kill the bad fish by
00:56:24killing all fish and draining the sea. And that is what they have done to a great extent in Syria.
00:56:30And it is not a, um, useful policy. Um, they have always had a policy of fragmenting or
00:56:38balkanizing Syria. That's been their objective. Uh, and Syria is, as you say,
00:56:44a remarkably complicated country with tremendous diversity of religious and ethnic, uh, traditions.
00:56:53Um, I can't help but conclude by noting that, um, the absence of any checks or balances
00:57:02to Israeli, uh, activity have just been illustrated with their apparent drone attack
00:57:08on a vessel carrying aid, uh, to, uh, or attempting to carry aid to Gaza, which they are starving to death.
00:57:17Um, there is no food there. Prices are escalating rapidly and we're about to see mass death.
00:57:24And yet the world does nothing. So, um, this is a terrible situation.
00:57:34In the end, I believe it is probably going to result, um, in the, in the,
00:57:42not just the ostracism of Israel internationally, but a loss of its very existence.
00:57:51I don't see how it can survive, uh, on the basis of such barbaric and depraved policies.
00:57:58Um, so, um, whatever you think about the war in Gaza or the ethnic cleansing in
00:58:05the West Bank or the invasion of Lebanon, the seizure of bases there, the destruction of Syria
00:58:11and the territorial expansion beyond the Golan, uh, Jolan into Syria. Um,
00:58:19this in the end is going to prove, uh, probably fatal through Israel.
00:58:26I agree. And I, I also think that the damage that this, this has done and is doing, and I'm,
00:58:34I assume you agree, uh, to the West is, uh, is, uh, is, is, will be devastating for decades to come.
00:58:42Well, we've, we've lost our moral standing. Uh, our moral authority is gone. Um, and, um,
00:58:51uh, a great many Americans realize that. Um, but unfortunately, they don't run the government
00:58:58at the moment.
00:58:58I think, uh, Professor Ma, do you want to add something before wrapping up?
00:59:09No, I'm, I, I agree with everything that, uh, Chaz says. And, um, I, I'm, although these are very dark
00:59:18times and, uh, uh, uh, the situation in Gaza, something that, uh, we all have to constantly
00:59:26be talking about. We should always be reminding people about what's going on and people across
00:59:31the world have to be active, uh, in order to, uh, create greater awareness and to put more pressure
00:59:40on, especially Western governments and the United States to make them pay a price, uh,
00:59:46for, for these policies. Uh, while I think we should continue that I do believe that, um,
00:59:53um, you know, when we look at history and, uh, we've been, we've talked briefly about China,
01:00:02we've talked about our region. These are, uh, you know, we've had civilizations for thousands of years.
01:00:10And, uh, what we see today is just a fleeting moment in, in history. I, Israeli regime is not very
01:00:21old. It's, it's quite young and, uh, I don't believe it's going to last. I agree that it can kill
01:00:29as tens of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, but when it loses its legitimacy in the eyes of the
01:00:37global public, then it, it simply cannot last. I, in just on this recent trip, I, I, I went to three
01:00:47different cities. I went to Shanghai, uh, Beijing and, um, in, in, in Beijing in particular, I spoke to
01:00:57different people in Shanghai as well. And, uh, the attitude towards the Israeli regime was very naked.
01:01:04And, um, in, uh, in, in, in Shenzhen, I, which was the last leg of my trip, uh, it was, uh, I think even more
01:01:17negative. Uh, the, the world has changed people before in these in, in, in many of in China, uh, most people
01:01:27really did not follow the issue of Palestine. Very few people were interested compared to the
01:01:35population. And some supported the Palestinians, some supported the Israelis. Israel was known to
01:01:41be a technologically advanced regime and, and all that. And those who didn't know much, but heard,
01:01:50they thought it was some conflict over a piece of land by two different people. Now, uh, the mood
01:01:57against Israel is very widespread. And every day that this genocide continues, the animosity and hatred
01:02:04becomes more entrenched. It la it will last. Uh, and the Israelis are simply not stopping every day.
01:02:13It just continues. And I think that they are signing their own death warrant. Now, when will that take
01:02:21effect? I don't know, but I don't think the regime will last, uh, more than a few more years.
01:02:29You've reminded me, uh, Muhammad of the story of when Mahatma Gandhi went to London for the first time.
01:02:37And he was asked, what do you think of Western civilization? And he replied, I think it would be
01:02:43a good idea. Yes. Thank you so much, Ambassador and Professor Miranda for being with us. Great
01:02:54pleasure as always. Always a pleasure.
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