The Scotsman Bulletin Thursday March 27 2025 #RachelReeves

The Scotsman

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00:00Hello and welcome to the Scotsman's daily video bulletin for this Thursday.

00:05My name is Dale Miller.

00:06I'm deputy editor of the Scotsman and I'm joined by our Westminster correspondent, Alexander

00:12Brown.

00:13Alex, before we get to the spring statement, some incredibly sad news to report today.

00:19The drugs and alcohol minister and SNP MSP, Christina McKelvie has sadly passed away.

00:28She has been undergoing treatment since the latter part of last year for secondary breast

00:35cancer.

00:36Tributes paid to her this morning from the likes of First Minister John Swinney, who

00:41said he was devastated by the news, as well as Mrs McKelvie's partner, Keith Brown.

00:48So some very sad news coming out of the SNP today.

00:52Alex, I wanted to talk to you about the spring statement, but firstly, the front page of

00:57today's Scotsman, which dominated, it's Reeves accused of austerity on stilts as

01:05Holy Grail, braces for cuts.

01:08Effectively, there was welfare reform, which we knew about, but it was built into the spring

01:12statement.

01:13But the interesting thing here, Alex, was some of the analysis from Fraser of Allander,

01:20which said the Scottish government was getting 28 million extra in its next budget, but then

01:26things were going to get worse and there was going to be some tough decisions to be made.

01:31Yeah, so it's all about framing, and this is like a classic UK government, Scottish

01:36government argument where they're both kind of right in what they're saying, and it's

01:42all about, you know, the narrative.

01:45So it's Scottish government saying they're getting less money long term from the UK

01:49government, and then they will have to do everything they can to avoid following the

01:54welfare cuts announced by Rachel Reeves.

01:57I think it was quite telling that they said they'll do everything they can rather than

02:00we will not follow with the welfare cuts.

02:03And they're saying that there's less money for Scotland, which is the financial analysis.

02:07But actually, in the immediate term, there is no cut to the block grant point made by

02:11the Scottish Secretary, Ian Murray.

02:13I think there's an extra 28 million coming from the Scottish government on top of what

02:17was a record settlement in the last budget from the UK government to Holyrood.

02:22So we're in that classic case of there is there has been no immediate cut.

02:28Funding for Scotland has gone up right now and is higher than it has ever been.

02:33But due to some, frankly, abysmal growth forecasts that Rachel Reeves will have had

02:38nightmares over, I imagine all this week and especially after today's headlines, there

02:43is going to be less money.

02:44There are going to be big cuts made to numerous government departments.

02:48And it is very, very likely that these cuts will then have a trickle down effect.

02:53And impact the budget for the Scottish government.

02:56I think one point worth making, because I haven't seen it made elsewhere, is in Jeremy

03:01Hunt's final budget as chancellor, the way that he set out the forecasts were actually

03:07the cuts would have been much more severe than they are now.

03:10I think that's really worth mentioning.

03:11Obviously, this is going to be very difficult.

03:13I think government budgets are being cut by one to two percent across the board.

03:18But if it had been the Tories in their forecasts, I think cuts would have been between

03:22five to seven percent.

03:24So we can only imagine what that would have looked like.

03:26So it's labour of a very difficult hand.

03:29I'm not sure they've played it in the best way possible, but there is an argument that

03:34they are making the best of a terrible situation.

03:38Alex, I was interested as well, Shana Robison, who spoke to the media late yesterday at

03:43Holyrood. The message from her was clearly about doing everything in their power to avoid

03:51welfare cuts or to avoid having to pass on the sort of reform that the UK government had

03:56taken. But she wasn't exactly saying how they would achieve that, which will be the

04:01crunch at the end of the day.

04:03Yeah, and this is always a contentious point for the UK government and for Labour

04:07particularly, who find themselves frustrated that the SNP will criticise them for making

04:14the tough decisions down in Westminster and then ultimately do kind of follow suit.

04:18They would say that there is the money.

04:20We have to make these tough decisions.

04:22So the Scottish government could make them.

04:24They could cut one area to fund this instead.

04:27They could follow the two child benefit cap and keep that and then use that money

04:33somewhere else. They would make that argument.

04:36The SNP and MPs and ministers would say, actually, we shouldn't have to.

04:39We shouldn't have to make that decision.

04:41But for both of them, it's just a horrible decision that has been made.

04:45I do think it's so interesting that the Scottish government are not saying we will

04:49not be following these details.

04:52And there was criticism from Stephen Flynn yesterday saying that, you know, well, maybe

04:57how much does Ian Murray know about this?

04:58Why is he saying that there aren't going to be cuts to the budget?

05:01Because that's what the Scottish government are hearing.

05:03So it's all it's all framing and people saying they're hearing different things, what

05:08the other person has said. It's a classic, classic spat we live in.

05:14Just lastly, Alex, if we look slightly forward, what's your assessment of what this is

05:20going to mean for Rachel Reeves and the UK government?

05:23She's been under a lot of heat.

05:26Did she do enough yesterday to keep the wolves at bay?

05:30No, and I think it was quite telling that not only did the spring statement go down

05:34badly, but the aftermath has perhaps been even worse.

05:37We had Darren Jones, Treasury Minister, talking about how it's the equivalent of

05:42pocket money. You know, you can't give someone, I'd say to your children, you're going to

05:46have, you're going to get less pocket money, but you might have to work a Saturday job.

05:49Making that comparison to disability benefits has gone down very badly.

05:54He was initially slapped down by another minister who then basically, I think Rachel Reeves

05:58and then essentially seemed to agree with him and make a similar point herself.

06:02There are, I think we're going to see the biggest rebellion of Starmer's premiership thus

06:06far. When some of these cuts go to a vote, I think we're looking at maybe 30 Labour MPs

06:12being annoyed. And while I don't think Rachel Reeves is in any danger politically, it has

06:18gone down very badly with many MPs who feel they are voting for cuts, they are voting

06:24for, as the SNP put it, austerity on stilts that is going to harm them in Scotland, harm

06:29them in the UK and I expect more imminently harm them in the council elections.

06:33So it's a really, really difficult position that she's in, but she has not brought the

06:39majority of MPs with her.

06:40There is a genuine rebellion brewing.

06:43You can read all the latest news, analysis and opinion around the Spring Statement at

06:48Scotsman.com. Just follow the politics or the opinion tabs to get the very latest.

06:53Includes coverage from Alex.

06:55And we've got some excellent analysis from John McLaren on what the economic picture is,

07:01not just for the UK government, but the Scottish government moving forward.

07:05900 million pounds by 2029, 2030.

07:10This will leave the Scottish government in the red by effectively.

07:14So some big decisions to make here north of the border as well.

07:17Alex, thanks to you.

07:19Thanks, everyone else, for joining us.

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