00:00Hello and welcome to the Scotsman's Daily Video Bulletin for this Monday.
00:05My name's Dale Miller, I'm Deputy Editor of the Scotsman and I'm joined by political correspondent Rachel Amory.
00:11And Rachel, as always, it's going to be another busy week in politics.
00:16We're going to catch up on that very shortly, but a look at the front page of today's Scotsman.
00:23And it was hard not to lead on a big picture of the celebrations up in Aberdeen.
00:31Done and dusted there is the headline, Aberdeen winning cup final on Saturday.
00:36Quite a momentous victory, followed by the parade through the town.
00:42Some 100,000 people turning out to actually cheer and watch on as they celebrated the team's success.
00:50It's been a long time coming.
00:53There's some terrific coverage from our sports team around that win and the significance for Aberdeen and a piece inside the celebrations yesterday and exactly what it meant.
01:03And we led with a story on a call for more police powers to tackle a rise in knife crime.
01:10We know this came up at First Minister's Questions last week where the issue was raised about a spate of attacks involving knives.
01:19We know the one at Urban Beach, which was particularly serious and has led to the arrest of two teenagers as well.
01:28You can also read that story from David Boll at Scotsman.com.
01:33Rachel, there's plenty happening, as we discussed on the politics front.
01:38There's a big by-election that's sort of snuck up on us a bit, that's coming next week.
01:42Can you talk us through the significance of that and how it may be shaping up for the three contenders, which is effectively the SNP, Labor and a rising reform?
01:55Yeah, absolutely.
01:56So this is the by-election for Hamilton, Lark, Collins, Stonehouse that was triggered by the death of Christina McKelvey.
02:02So it's actually going to be a week on Thursday, so it has come around quite quickly when you think about it all.
02:07Now, when this election, when this by-election campaign started, it was very much, is it going to be the SNP or is it going to be Labor?
02:14Will we see Labor trying to take the SNP over or can they retain it?
02:18However, as the weeks have gone on, the reform have started to gain a bit more momentum.
02:22I think on the back of doing very well in the local elections in England, there's been a bit more momentum here in Scotland there as well.
02:28And so the reform are now looking to perhaps even come second in this race and overtake Labor.
02:34So the narrative has changed quite a bit from when this by-election started to when it's fit to when it's going to finish next week because of this rise of reform.
02:42They are very keen to win.
02:43They're spending way more than everybody else on their advertising, for example.
02:47We're seeing them a lot more out on the doorsteps as well.
02:51So it's really interesting to see what happens with them in the mix this time around rather than a straight fight from the SNP and Labor.
02:58And it's interesting, Rachel, the SNP today calling out the reform ads around Anasawa, using clips from Anasawa as well.
03:08That was an issue throughout the back end of last week.
03:10But things are getting very interesting in the jostling between parties.
03:16Against this backdrop, we've seen Sir Keir Starmer sort of an antipartial U-turn last week on the winter fuel payment,
03:23although we don't know exactly who's going to get it that isn't already and when that might happen.
03:29He indicated the next fiscal event, which would be the autumn budget later this year.
03:34And their suggestion that they may try and find some money for the two-child benefit cap and supporting those involved there.
03:44Will any of this help Scottish Labor and Anasawa, do you think?
03:48I think in terms of our next week's by-election, we're probably running out of time at this point,
03:52particularly because, as you were saying, we're looking towards the next fiscal event, which could be months away.
03:58So in terms of that, for the by-election, there's probably very little impact that it is going to have there.
04:03In terms of overall looking towards the 2026 election, there could be some sort of back and forth there as to whether it could have an impact.
04:08So the winter fuel payment decision has kind of plagued Sir Keir Starmer ever since he came into office.
04:15So you can understand why he's wanting to U-turn on this, sort of get a political front foot, if you like.
04:21The two-child benefit cap is quite an interesting one.
04:23The Labour government came under a lot of criticism when they came into government for not scrapping the two-child benefit cap.
04:30And when they didn't, the S&P then came out and said that we will scrap the two-child benefit cap in Scotland by 2026.
04:37However, if Sir Keir Starmer does U-turn on this and scraps it for the whole of the UK,
04:42then while it is a win for the Scottish Labour Party, it can also be seen as a win for the S&P,
04:46because ultimately their goal has been achieved.
04:49And they have said they didn't want to spend any money on it and they wanted to put pressure on the Labour government to do so.
04:53So it's actually going to play into the S&P's hands as well there.
04:56So that's quite an interesting move that doing one side will benefit Scottish Labour,
05:00but will also benefit the S&P at the same time.
05:02It would be really interesting to see if that has any impact on the polls when it comes to 2026.
05:07Scottish election.
05:08Rachel, we had a story from Martin McLaughlin as well about advertising that we ran across the weekend,
05:15you know, reform spending more on Facebook advertising than any party around this coming by election
05:21by quite a significant margin.
05:23We know that advert I mentioned around Anasawa that's been generating criticism of reform
05:31and the party and its tactical approach.
05:35If reform were to come second in this race and Labour slips back in the third,
05:42will it be panic stations, do you think, for Anasawa and his party?
05:45It probably will be, particularly because recent by-elections for the general election,
05:51we saw Scottish Labour doing very well, particularly in and around the area of Hamilton.
05:55I think Rutherford, for example, it's not a million miles away geographically.
05:59It will be a bit of a panic for the party, particularly because reform comes second,
06:04it shows that they can perhaps do very, very well when it comes to the regional list vote in 2026.
06:09There have been sort of mumblings, which we covered in the paper as well, about sort of backroom,
06:14what's going on there, people saying they're not happy with them,
06:17the leadership saying that perhaps there'll still be a sort of a trigger to try and even oust the Prime Minister
06:22on the back of successive election failures.
06:25So there's a lot of rating for the Labour Party on this election, as there's for any other party,
06:29because we can't forget about the Conservatives, who were also tipped to have a particularly bad night at the polls,
06:34both in next week's by-election and in next year's Scottish elections.
06:38So there's a few parties who perhaps will be panicking a little bit with this rise of reform.
06:43And if reform does come second in this by-election, it shows that they can perhaps produce some good results
06:48when it comes to the Scottish Government election.
06:51It's been interesting, Rachel, that the Conservatives, despite really struggling as well,
06:58and particularly in those polls down south for the local elections recently,
07:01it probably escapes some of the flack that's been coming Labour's way.
07:05That by-election, as Rachel mentions, Thursday next week, it will be one to watch.
07:11There's plenty else to happen in the build-up.
07:13John Swinney's back on the campaign trail today in the build-up to that by-election.
07:18So you'll get to hear more from him at scotsman.com later today.
07:23Please follow us on all social media channels and go out and buy a copy of the paper tomorrow
07:29for all your very latest in news locally, regionally, across Scotland and across the rest of the world.
07:36Rachel, thanks to you and thanks to everyone else for joining us.
