The Scotsman Bulletin Monday November 25 2024 #Budget

The Scotsman

Dale speaks to Rachel Amery about the upcoming Scottish budget.

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to the Scotsman's daily video bulletin for this Monday.

00:05My name's Dale Miller.

00:06I'm deputy editor of the Scotsman and I'm joined by our political correspondent Rachel

00:11Armoury.

00:12Rachel, we are approaching December quickly, which means Scottish budget isn't far around

00:18the corner Wednesday next week, in fact, and we're going to talk about that very shortly.

00:22But the front page of today's Scotsman firstly.

00:26Retailers play the Sweeney as budget talks go down to the wire.

00:30It has been interesting, particularly over the past week.

00:34We've heard from the CBI, we've heard from the Scottish Hospitality Group, we're hearing

00:39from retailers as well.

00:41We're also hearing from colleges and I would expect there'll be others, including the

00:47arts sector that is asking for money in the Scottish budget.

00:51They want to be very clear about what's outlined and Scottish councils have spoken as

00:56well about how much money they need over the past couple of weeks.

00:59Expect to read much more about that at Scotsman.com, not just today, but over the next

01:05week and a half. Also, a fantastic picture on the front of that win by Scotland over

01:10Australia in the autumn test yesterday, which sets the team up very nicely for the

01:15coming six nations.

01:17Rachel, thank you for joining.

01:19I want to highlight firstly the terrific work that you did on the A9 series last week.

01:24If you want to read any of that series, you can get it at Scotsman.com, go to our

01:30politics or our transport tabs in the navigation bar.

01:34It was a full series covering how important the A9 dualling issue is, difficult

01:40sections, why it's been held up politically.

01:44There's plenty to read about there, so please check it out.

01:47But Rachel, we're going to talk about the budgets and there's confirmation that there

01:51is some extra money coming to the Scottish government.

01:55Yes, this is over employer contributions to national insurance.

01:59If you cast your mind back to the UK budget at the end of October, employer national

02:04insurance contributions were increased by the UK chancellor.

02:08There's a lot of concerns about how that's going to impact on the public sector in

02:11Scotland, not least because the public sector in Scotland is actually bigger per head of

02:15population than it is down south.

02:17So a bit of concern there.

02:19The Scottish minister is also very concerned about how they will cover these national

02:23insurance contributions going up in their own budget.

02:27Now, they had asked for £500 million to be asked for to cover this.

02:34In fact, they had confirmation from the UK Treasury that they will be supplying £300

02:39million for this.

02:41So good news that the money is coming this way and there is now a plan of how this

02:46tax increase is going to be covered by the public sector.

02:49I'm sure Scottish ministers, on the other hand, are going to be disappointed because it

02:52is £200 million short of what they asked for.

02:55I'm sure we'll hear a bit more as the days go on and I'm sure we'll hear more in the

02:59budget statement, which, as you said, Dale, is only a week away now.

03:05Interestingly enough, I think the Scottish Council's asked for £350 million alone.

03:09So the amount that the UK government's giving doesn't meet that differential, even

03:17taking into account the other requests.

03:20What are you expecting the Scottish government to say about this, Rachel?

03:25Yeah, I can imagine they're going to say that they're disappointed it's not what they

03:29asked for. Of course, they can use it as well as a tactic to try and attack the UK

03:34government and potentially austerity measures and things like that as well.

03:39There has, of course, over the past few months been this sort of narrative of trying to

03:42reset the relationship between Holyrood and Westminster, now that there's a Labour

03:46government in charge of the UK government.

03:49However, it's an SNP government in charge and Holyrood, of course, their whole

03:54narrative is that they want to be independent from the UK and from Westminster.

03:58So this will sort of set them up nicely to give an argument as to why Scotland should

04:03be independent in the budget statement.

04:05So I'm sure we'll see some of that coming up as well.

04:08There is, of course, more money for the Scottish government in this budget.

04:11It's been increased by £3.4 billion, which sounds like a lot of money.

04:16When you look at how many departments in Scotland need some more cash, that cash is

04:20going to go very, very quickly.

04:23There's a lot of expectation that a lot of that extra money will go on the NHS, for

04:26example. But like you said, there'll be POSLA councils and loads of other areas who

04:32will be clamouring for that cash as well.

04:35So it's really interesting to see how that extra money gets divvied up and what

04:38priorities are being used as well.

04:41One budget we look out for as well as the NHS, though, is housing.

04:44It, of course, has been a big problem recently within housing in Scotland.

04:48There's a national housing emergency as well as individual housing emergencies in

04:52places like Edinburgh and Glasgow as well.

04:55Last year's budget, the affordable housing budget, was hit quite severely.

05:00And at the time, the finance secretary did say if there was any more money coming

05:04along, it would be spent in that department.

05:06So I'd expect to see a bit of money being ploughed into that department too in this

05:10budget next week.

05:11Rachel, you've touched on, I guess, some of the core areas that the government's

05:16going to spend on, but we know that they're going to have to strike an agreement with

05:21WALA parties to get the budget through.

05:24The Scottish Lib Dems and Alex Cole-Hamilton have been pretty strict on saying that

05:29if there's a penny that goes towards independent spending, his party won't be

05:33backing it. Is that the biggest challenge, to actually give some ground to get

05:39someone to back the budget?

05:41That will be a big challenge.

05:42Obviously, last year, the Scottish Greens were still in government with the

05:46Bute House agreement.

05:47Therefore, the budget was always going to pass last year because they had those extra

05:51numbers. As you know, this year, that all fell apart, which brought down the downfall

05:56of Humza Yousaf along with it.

05:58So therefore, the SNP is a minority government, which means they're going to have

06:02to rely on another party to back them on this budget.

06:07It's unlikely to be the Labour Party or the Conservatives.

06:09I'm pretty sure they will probably oppose the budget.

06:12So we're then looking to the smaller party.

06:14Will it be the Scottish Greens or will it be the Lib Dems that will support the budget

06:18to get it passed? Now, the Lib Dems have said that not a single penny should be spent

06:22on the constitution. I think that was quite unlikely, given it's a national government

06:27that is in charge. So unlikely to see that.

06:30But at the same time, the Scottish Greens have put out quite a lot of demands already

06:34as to what they would like to see done and what their red lines are.

06:38And they have also been saying that they'd like to see a bit more emphasis on Scottish

06:42independence in the coming months from the nationalist government.

06:46So the question of independence and independent spending is really going to be

06:52shaped by which party do we want to try and partner up with here?

06:55Is it going to be the Lib Dems or is it going to be the Scottish Greens?

06:59So they're very small parties, both parties in single digit numbers.

07:04But they could end up being quite influential when it comes to this budget next week.

07:07So it's going to be interesting to see what they do over the next week.

07:11You'll be able to read some analysis from Rachel about this very subject at Scotsman.com

07:16shortly. Rachel, thank you for joining us.

07:19You can follow us on Facebook, X, Instagram, said this a couple of times over the past

07:23week. We are on Blue Sky now as well.

07:26So if you are not a big follower on X anymore, please find us on Blue Sky and go

07:32out and support local journalism.

07:33Pick up a copy of The Scotsman in print tomorrow for all the very latest news.

07:38Thanks to everyone. Cheers.

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