The Scotsman Bulletin for Wednesday March 19 2025 #Politics

The Scotsman

Transcript

00:00Hello, welcome to the Scotsman's daily video bulletin

00:03for this Wednesday.

00:04My name's Dale Miller.

00:05I'm deputy editor, the Scotsman,

00:08and I'm joined by our Westminster correspondent,

00:10Alexander Brown.

00:12Alex, we're gonna get to talking

00:14about welfare cuts very shortly,

00:16and it's maybe no surprise that it is leading

00:19the front of today's print edition of the Scotsman,

00:23specifically going in on some comments

00:25from Shirley-Anne Somerville,

00:27the social security secretary that spoke late yesterday

00:32in the Scottish parliament.

00:34Raising fears the welfare reform will be,

00:37quote, a severe blow to the Scottish budget,

00:40suggestions that it could rob the Scottish budget

00:44of millions of pounds.

00:46Obviously, some of what's the equivalent of PIP

00:49here in Scotland is devolved,

00:51but the decisions that were announced yesterday

00:55by Liz Kendall will have implications

00:58in terms of how much money

00:59the Scottish government ultimately has.

01:01And then like it did with the winter fuel payments,

01:03it'll have a decision to make.

01:05Does it copy what the UK Labour government are doing

01:07and in the process maybe criticise the decisions

01:10but say it can't do anything more and has to pass them on,

01:15or does it try and make savings elsewhere?

01:18That is something that we'll have a greater picture of,

01:22I think, over coming weeks.

01:23Also, the latest part of our business and golf series

01:27from Martin McLaughlin,

01:28where the focus moves to the historic courses

01:32in St. Andrews.

01:33Are they being overplayed?

01:35Some think that may be the case.

01:36You can read that piece at scotsman.com.

01:39Alex, it was a big day yesterday,

01:41continues to be a big day today,

01:44but confirmation today that a well-known figure

01:48in Labour circles, a former Labour MSP,

01:51has quit over what was announced yesterday,

01:53has quit the party.

01:55Yeah, I mean, Neil Findlay has quit

01:57after however many years in the party,

02:00but it's worth noting he is a former MSP.

02:02I mean, he talked about the welfare reforms

02:04and how they were heartless.

02:05They were going after the most vulnerable.

02:07Lots of sort of language we have heard from charities

02:10and I think from the SNP.

02:12And it is undoubtedly a blow to the party.

02:14He is incredibly well-known in Scotland.

02:17He's a voice that people will recognise.

02:19But I do think that for Labour,

02:22especially for Downing Street,

02:24it's not gonna be that great a blow

02:25because while it might be problematic for some in Labour

02:28and it's problematic to charities

02:30and perhaps many people in Scotland,

02:32broadly, the polling shows that they are supported.

02:35They are supported in reforming welfare,

02:37for better or for worse.

02:39The polls show the UK as a whole

02:42believes that we spend too much on welfare

02:44and something has to be done.

02:46And I think it's really interesting

02:48that the resignation that we're talking about today

02:51is a former MSP.

02:52It's not a sitting MSP.

02:54It's not a sitting MP

02:55and it's certainly not a member of the cabinet,

02:57even though we know that,

02:59or at least we're told that Antoinette Rayner

03:01and Ed Miliband were some of those who spoke out

03:04against the welfare reforms

03:05and against making these such drastic cuts in cabinet.

03:08So I think it's obviously a blow,

03:11but I think Downing Street will probably think

03:13if it's just him,

03:15that's a decent price for doing business.

03:18And that was interesting,

03:19some of the emotive language from Neil Findlay

03:21talking about the government,

03:23or Labor, sorry, having lied to the public

03:25going into the election last year

03:27just about what their priorities are.

03:29We'll probably get a better idea

03:31about whether some of this is sticking

03:34or not when we come to the Holyrood elections next year

03:37and what impact it has on NSO

03:39and Scottish Labor and their prospects.

03:41Alex, you've touched on a bit of a fallout from that,

03:46but is it going to be worse

03:49or are the government going to move on

03:51from this pretty quickly

03:52before the vote on the welfare reforms in May?

03:55So I think it's going to be a sticky PMQs today.

03:58I would expect Stephen Flynn

03:59to mention this resignation from this morning

04:02in his criticism and perhaps the charities

04:05who warn that the country is trying to save money

04:07off the back of the poorest.

04:10But there has not been this loud, open rebellion.

04:14Brian Leishman, Scottish Labor MP,

04:16he's been very critical,

04:17but he's been quite critical of the UK government throughout.

04:20He is on the left of the party.

04:21And the simple truth is,

04:23for all of the criticism and any issues in the polls,

04:26Starmer still has a pretty sweeping mandate

04:29and MPs are fairly behind that.

04:31And he also gets a bit of respite, right?

04:33Any vote on this, any vote on the changes to welfare

04:35isn't going to come for at least a month.

04:37So he has time to bring MPs over.

04:40And I also think Downing Street

04:42avoided the real problems

04:45before the announcement even happened.

04:47Initially, there had been plans to freeze PIP

04:50and to reduce the rate,

04:51which would have been really problematic.

04:53And Downing Street was so worried about that,

04:55that MPs were basically,

04:57it was a revolving door in and out of Downing Street

05:00in the past fortnight coming to calm concerns.

05:03So by not doing that,

05:05they've actually been quite clever.

05:06What they've done is by making it harder

05:09to get the entitlement and increasing the money,

05:11it sounds like it's not a cut,

05:12but in reality, they are going to make it harder

05:15for people to get access to the funding

05:17that they had before

05:18or the funding that they would say they need.

05:20But by not straight up cutting it,

05:22Labour can say they're streamlining the process,

05:25they're increasing the amount available,

05:27and it's all about supporting those who actually need it

05:29and getting people into work

05:31when the argument against that is,

05:33it's punishing the most vulnerable.

05:34So I think really, it's not going to be as big

05:37as it feels right now and as it felt yesterday.

05:42Alex, moving on from Labour,

05:44but something that is still impacting Labour

05:46in the polls is Reform UK.

05:48Now, there's some fresh polling out this morning.

05:52It's been interesting tracking.

05:53We know they did better than expected

05:56in the general election south of the border last year,

05:59but this new poll is about the picture here in Scotland.

06:02And fair to say it shows Reform UK doing well here as well.

06:06I think they're on the highest rating

06:07they've had so far for Holyrood.

06:09I think it predicts that they're going to get 14 MSPs,

06:12which is a remarkable result for a party

06:15that has not been around very long

06:18and that has spent the past two weeks

06:19fighting amongst themselves.

06:21I think it's a really concerning problem.

06:24And I think it's worth noting,

06:25it's not just a problem for the Scottish Tories.

06:28I think it's really easy to look at Reform and think,

06:30well, they're a right-wing party.

06:31Surely they're a problem for the Scottish Tories.

06:33It's not that simple.

06:35Eating away at the vote of Scottish Labour,

06:37who people think perhaps they have gone after the pensioners,

06:40have gone after the working class,

06:42people who voted for change

06:43and feel like they've been left behind,

06:44they're drifting to Reform.

06:46And also the SNP, people who feel like

06:48after what will have been 19 years,

06:51and they feel like their lives have not got better.

06:53I think it's interesting the polling shows that

06:54about Nicola Sturgeon.

06:56People like Sturgeon,

06:57but they didn't feel like their lives had got better.

06:59Some people from the SNP are going over to Reform as well.

07:01So if they're polling like that now,

07:04when we haven't heard from them,

07:06it's going to be really interesting.

07:07So it could either go up

07:08when we get a little bit more detail,

07:09and dare I say a policy,

07:11or it could go down if we get a little bit more detail

07:14and some policies.

07:16Either way, Reform are very, very happy today.

07:18Everyone I've spoken to.

07:20And we know they were doing an event as recently

07:22in Scotland as last week,

07:23where a couple of Councillors announced

07:26their defection over to Reform.

07:28It was still a good year out

07:30from the Scottish Parliament elections,

07:32but it will be interesting, like you say,

07:35about whether the momentum continues to build

07:36for Reform between now and then.

07:39Look, we will be bringing you fresh announcements

07:41about Project Willow as well.

07:43This is the blueprint for the future of Grangemouth

07:47following the announcement that the facility will close

07:50and includes commitments around

07:51how many jobs will be created

07:53and also nine individual projects

07:56that will sit within what's been dubbed Project Willow.

08:00Our politics team led by David Bole on this

08:03will bring you all the very latest throughout today.

08:05So you can read that at scotsman.com.

08:08John Swinney is speaking about what the plans are

08:12for this crucial side of the energy mix here in Scotland.

08:16Alex, thank you to you,

08:18and thanks to everyone else for joining us.

08:20You'll get the full wrap in print as well

08:23in tomorrow's Scotsman.

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