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00:00And this week's Breeders' Cup Winning Year in Challenge Race, which is the Grade 1 $1.2

00:04million Whitney Stakes at Saratoga, will be run this Saturday, August 6th.

00:09The second most prestigious and significant race out of the entire star-studded Saratoga

00:13meet, behind only the Travers, the Whitney is, in my mind, tied with the Met Mile for

00:17the most important race for older dirt horses in America, other than the race it serves

00:21as a qualifier for, which is the Breeders' Cup Classic.

00:25Named after the Whitney family, an institution unlike any other in Saratoga, the Whitney

00:29has been run every year at the spa since 1928.

00:31It was originally run at a mile and a quarter before being shortened to its current distance

00:35at a mile and an eighth in 1955.

00:38It was won last year by eventual Horse of the Year, Nick's Go.

00:41This year's renewal features a high-quality six-horse field, out of which there are five

00:46Grade 1 winners, and two horses in particular who would vault to the front of the Horse

00:50of the Year debate with a victory.

00:52It's as legitimate of a Grade 1 field as you can have outside of the Breeders' Cup.

00:57So now let's figure out how to make money out of it.

00:59The likely favorite, although not overwhelming considering the quality of the field, is Life

01:02is Good.

01:03I think he'll probably end up going off at around six to five or seven to five.

01:06He's shown brilliant speed in all nine career starts, and he's carried it to victory in

01:10seven of those races.

01:12He successfully stretched out to a mile and an eighth earlier this year in an impressive

01:16Pegasus World Cup victory, where he defeated the aforementioned Nick's Go before fading

01:20late in the mile and a quarter Dubai World Cup.

01:23He returned home with an easy five-length win in the John Nehru at Belmont, earning

01:27a career-high 112 buyer.

01:30This close second choice, I think about two to one or five to two, will be Olympiad.

01:34He's undefeated five for five this year.

01:36His last four wins came in graded stakes.

01:38He pressed a fast pace in the Stephen Foster last out and scored by two and a quarter lengths

01:43with a 111 buyer.

01:45The other two main contenders on figures are Hot Rod Charlie, who had a terrific three-year-old

01:49season that included a 111 buyer win in the Pennsylvania Derby, and American Revolution,

01:54who captured the Cigar Mile and was second behind Olympiad in the Stephen Foster with

01:58a career-high 108 buyer.

02:00Happy Saver and Zoomer complete the field.

02:02The former is a grade one winner in the 2020 Jockey Club Gold Cup, but both are a bit too

02:07slow on paper to compete with the other four.

02:09So the key question in this race for me is how fast life is good goes early, because

02:13there's no legitimate question whether or not he's going to get the lead.

02:17He drew outside, so he doesn't have to be completely gunned as he would if he broke

02:20from the rail.

02:21But a Rattortese, I think, is going to want to clear by the early part of that clubhouse

02:25turn.

02:26So does he take it to them from there and open up like Nick Sko did last year in the

02:29Whitney, potentially going too fast?

02:31Or does he try to throttle down some and save energy for the stretch while allowing the

02:35other horses to keep him in their sights?

02:37My guess is that he's going to play catch me if he can.

02:40That speed is just too much of a weapon, which I think could be bad news for Olympiad, who

02:43I'm generally a huge fan of.

02:46So he's had a terrific year, and his race in the foster was a legitimately huge effort.

02:52Olympiad has had basically the same trip in every one of his wins this year.

02:56He sits just off the leader, gets the jump on the closers, and he holds strong in the

02:59final furlong.

03:00His come home splits are terrific.

03:02He's proven himself multiple times at this distance.

03:05But I just don't know that he's going to have that same punch if he has to chase a loose

03:09leader with the level of elite speed that life is good has.

03:12So as for Hot Rod Charlie and American Revolution, I prefer the latter, who I think will be the

03:16biggest price out of all four major contenders, hopefully around five to one or so.

03:21Hot Rod Charlie has races that would win this for sure, but it's kind of the same thing

03:24as with Olympiad.

03:25They either came on the lead or pressing the lead, which I don't think life is good is

03:29going to allow him to do.

03:30I think he's just too fast.

03:31So that leads me to American Revolution as the only contender who won't be taken out

03:36of his game if and when life is good runs off to a clear lead.

03:40He has some tactical speed, but he's the closest thing to a one-run closer in the field.

03:45And he completes a really strong complementary one-two punch for Todd Pletcher, who's seeking

03:49his fourth Whitney win, which would put him one behind the record.

03:53The record is five for trainer wins in the Whitney.

03:55So my two most likely scenarios are life is good, bottoming out the field with his speed,

04:00and he just keeps going and vaults himself to the top of the horse of the year discussion,

04:06or him at least tiring out Olympiad and Hot Rod Charlie and Duff on the chase to set it

04:11up all for American Revolution to mow everybody down.

04:14So I'm going to invest a little less this week because I don't think the favorites are

04:17as vulnerable as I did in the Haskell.

04:19Also not going to do a pick four or pick five because it looks a little bit chalky and I

04:22don't want to give out a $30 pick four for 50 cents.

04:26So I'm taking my shot with American Revolution.

04:28What I hope is in the five to one range, we're going to go with $100 total.

04:32We're going to go $50 to win on number one, American Revolution, a $30 Xacta, number six,

04:38life is good over number one, American Revolution.

04:41We'll do a $10 try number six, life is good with number two, Hot Rod Charlie, and number

04:45four Olympiad with number one, American Revolution.

04:48So that's a total of $100.

04:51Good luck if you're following along, and why wouldn't you if you got a piece of CyberKnife

04:54last week?

Bettor Things - Whitney Stakes

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