'Houthis has proven to be extremely resilient', analyst says as US launches strikes in Yemen

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00:00Hearing about the biggest set of strikes from the US, wave of strikes across the country in Yemen

00:05targeting Houthi rebel positions. It started on Saturday, the biggest strikes in three years at

00:10least, when the Saudi-led air war was ongoing. Now Iran is playing the innocent victim

00:17in controlling rogue terrorists in Yemen. That's the latest claim from President Trump today as

00:22the US military continues its air assaults with more strikes earlier today. According to the

00:28Houthi militants, the White House warning too that Iran will be held responsible if the Houthis

00:33return fire. Well the Islamist group supported by Tehran claims its actions are in support of

00:39Hamas in Gaza and will continue striking at US vessels. Now we're going to talk a little bit

00:45more about the root to the fruit of this story, the complications, the contradictions and try to

00:49see what's at the heart of events. Let's go to London. Let's bring in Andreas Krieg, Associate

00:54Professor of Defence Studies at King's Colleges University and a fellow at the Institute of

00:59Middle Eastern Studies. Great to have you on the programme Andreas. Let's first of all start with

01:04with your reading of the situation right now, this huge wave of strikes.

01:09So certainly as you already rightly mentioned, these are extensive strikes that have been

01:14launched all over the country. Certainly the boldest strikes that we've seen from the US

01:17since the beginning of the war in Gaza. Certainly far more extensive, far-reaching and also

01:22targeting directly not just military facilities but also trying to target

01:26Houthi leaders. That is certainly a major escalation from the US point of view,

01:30but I would see this within the overall context of what Trump is trying to achieve with this

01:35mega deal, which would include obviously the GCC, would include Iran and also obviously

01:41the Houthis to an extent. But instead of going after one of the root causes, which is obviously

01:46the Gaza war and trying to solve this, he's now going after one of the symptoms. And obviously

01:50over the last 18 months or so, we've seen the Houthis really being emboldened

01:54by the war in Gaza and by the response by Israel, United States and the UK

02:00striking the Houthis in Yemen. That has actually been very counterproductive. And what we've seen

02:04over the last years as well, since the war that was led by the Saudis, is that the Houthis are

02:09not really responsive to deterrence by punishment. And hence, usually instead of just putting

02:16pressure on them and changing their behaviour, I think that will just further embolden them.

02:21Let's go through some of the areas that were struck, Andreas. So we go down to the,

02:25this is since Saturday, the southern point of the territory that they hold in Yemen,

02:28the al-Badr governorate in, I think it's Maliras as well, all the way to Sadr in the north,

02:33Marib, Hadja, Danmar, these multiple locations, more than 50 people killed, we're told. The US

02:39saying that they've managed to kill a number of, quote, senior members of the militant group

02:43as well within that. But there's a strange, there's something strange going on within this.

02:47And I wonder if you can pinpoint it for me. It's the fact that there hasn't been

02:51Houthi strikes since the ceasefire began in Gaza. What's your reading of why the US strike started

03:00is entirely down to trying to pressurise Iran on its nuclear situation?

03:05Well, I mean, this is part of Trump's gambit, right? He usually starts out with quite a lot

03:09of pressure, trying to pressure a negotiation partner into a corner, into a position of

03:14weakness from which then Trump wants to engage through discussions and negotiations. The thing

03:20is, though, I think Trump understands as well, I mean, the US understands, the US military

03:24understands that there won't be a military solution to the Houthi problem. The Houthis

03:28have been proven to be extremely resilient. You know, even if you, they've been able to sustain

03:33years and years of strikes from the Saudi-led coalition as well, they have not been strategically

03:38weakened. Even in terms of degradation, the network of the Houthis, which it is essentially,

03:43has not been substantially degraded. So taking all of this into account, I think Trump knows

03:49that there isn't a lot to be achieved militarily on the ground against the Houthis. You can degrade.

03:54But in the end of the day, this is supposed to be the opening gambit to a greater negotiation.

03:58I think what Trump is getting wrong here, though, is that the Houthis, yes,

04:01they are funded by Iran. And obviously the technology is Iranian technology. But after

04:05all, they're a Yemeni actor. They're deeply ingrained, embedded in the local community.

04:11And as such, you know, they're not vitally relying just on the Iranians to switch them

04:17on and off. I mean, they have a great degree of agency and autonomy. And I think what we've seen

04:21over the last six weeks or so, ever since Trump came into power, the Iranians have really told

04:26the Houthis to keep their feet still, to remain calm, do not escalate, don't invite any retaliation

04:32from the United States. And the Houthis seem to have, even though they haven't struck,

04:36their narrative has certainly been one of we're escalating now, we want to put more pressure on

04:40Israel. And Trump is someone who responds to narrative with further narrative. You pressure

04:44him, he's going to double pressure you. That's kind of how he works. Briefly, we have about a

04:49minute, but I do want to hear your thoughts on this. Marco Rubio, Secretary of State in the US,

04:53saying this weekend that they will carry on until they've ended the capability of the Houthis to

04:57attack. I'm guessing you, in what you've just said, you're not sure that that's going to be the case.

05:03No, I mean, a lot, I mean, they're a low tech operator. I mean, they have a lot of high tech

05:07stuff that they get from Iran. But a lot of the drone technology, even the missile technology is

05:11fairly low tech. And my point is, as long as the Houthis have access to some of the weaponry that

05:15they can reverse engineer to use against shipping in, you know, around the Bab al-Mandab, they will

05:20use it. So essentially, it has to be a political settlement. And even striking Iran will not make

05:25any difference on, will have not any major impact on how the Houthis operate around the Bab al-Mandab.

05:30Great to talk to you, Andreas. Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor at the Defence

05:35Studies Department at King's College in London. Nice to talk to you this evening.

05:40Let's go from there. Let's start with

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