US empowering Israel's most hard-right wing as IDF resumes operations

FRANCE 24 English

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00After two months of relative calm, Palestinians are once more fleeing for their lives in Gaza

00:05after Israel effectively abandoned the territory's fragile ceasefire, launching a fresh all-out

00:11air and ground campaign against the militant group Hamas.

00:15At least 91 people have been killed and dozens more wounded across the enclave this Thursday.

00:22Israeli aircraft also dropped leaflets on residential neighbourhoods, ordering people

00:26out of several areas in the north, south and also in Gaza City.

00:31Hamas, which had not retaliated during the first 48 hours of the renewed assault, said

00:37its fighters have since fired rockets into Israel.

00:41For more, we're joined now by Dr H.A. Elier, Senior Fellow in Geopolitics and International

00:48Security at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

00:52Thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening, Dr Elier.

00:57So is this essentially it then for the already fragile ceasefire that's been in place in

01:02Gaza since January?

01:06Thank you for having me on your programme.

01:07So the ceasefire agreement, which never became obviously a permanent ceasefire, was already

01:14being violated quite regularly, pretty much as soon as it was signed.

01:19You had around 100 Palestinians being killed in Gaza during the ceasefire period.

01:25This is before the latest round of escalation over the last few days.

01:32So there were quite a few violations of the ceasefire already.

01:35The Philadelphia corridor, which is on the border with Egypt, was supposed to have been

01:39evacuated by the Israelis.

01:41It hadn't been.

01:42There was another one.

01:44Different types of material coming in, different amounts of tents and other types of materials

01:50that were supposed to make life for people in Gaza a little bit more bearable.

01:55And that also was interfered with.

01:58So I think that what you've seen over the last couple of days is an Israeli decision

02:04to end this particular pause and to really roll the clock back.

02:11Over the course of the past couple of months, for example, the Israelis did leave the Netzerim

02:16corridor, which essentially split Gaza in two, and allowed for Palestinians to go from

02:22the south back to the north.

02:23Of course, they went to the north.

02:24There was nothing there because it had been destroyed overall, this bombardment.

02:29That's all being rolled back.

02:30The Netzerim corridor is being re-militarized and recaptured by the Israelis as we speak.

02:36It started happening very quickly.

02:38And the Israelis have made it clear that they will not be allowing people to go back up

02:43north.

02:44And frankly, I suspect that they will try to force Palestinians in the north to go south

02:50as quickly as possible and really go back to the situation as it was before the ceasefire

02:57agreement had been put in place.

02:59And we've been hearing that Israeli and US officials are going to have talks next week.

03:03Is there any hope at this point?

03:04Do you believe that Washington will be applying pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu to put an end

03:10to this renewed conflict, or is he effectively acting at this point with impunity?

03:17So I would love to think that the United States would use any number of the points of leverage

03:22that it has on the Israelis, and they have many different points that they could use.

03:27But no, I don't think that's particularly likely.

03:30On the contrary, what we've seen is an empowering of the Israeli position and an empowering

03:34of the most hard right wing element of the Israeli position.

03:38The Riviera plan, I think, was really welcomed by the Israeli far right and the right wing

03:44in Israel.

03:45Of course, it was welcomed across the board more generally as well.

03:49But no, I think that really the Israelis are acting with a sense of impunity because they

03:54recognize that Washington is not going to interfere.

03:57And it's really Washington that has the ability to do so.

04:00That's the case when it comes to upholding the terms of the ceasefire in Lebanon, where

04:05the Israelis have yet to evacuate from the positions that they were supposed to in Lebanon.

04:11It's the case when it comes to Gaza.

04:13It's the case when it comes to Syria, where the Israelis have occupied more territory

04:18in the south of Syria and have been bombing it quite regularly since the downfall of the

04:22Assad regime.

04:24So what we see at the moment is an Israeli government that has decided that this is the

04:30way forward for its security paradigm.

04:33And unless they are forced to change that perception, then they'll keep on doing it.

04:39And really the only ones who can force them at this stage is the United States.

04:44Why do you believe that this particular campaign is happening now?

04:48Is it due to the domestic pressure that's being applied on the Israeli prime minister

04:53at home?

04:54Is it because the eyes of the world are focused elsewhere, particularly on Ukraine, as we've

04:58been seeing in recent weeks?

05:01So there's a few things really.

05:02First, I don't think that the Israelis ever wanted the ceasefire proposal to go forward

05:06in the first place.

05:07I think that the United States really pushed and pressured for it to happen because Donald

05:14Trump was coming into office and wanted there to be a deal and be able to present that deal

05:21as being an accomplishment that his administration had achieved before even coming into office.

05:27But even at the time that the deal was signed, the Israeli press were reporting that Netanyahu

05:33had gotten guarantees from both the Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration

05:39that if he wanted to return to war at any point, that he would have their support in

05:44doing so.

05:45So I don't think that there was any real desire to move from phase one of the deal to phase

05:50two, let alone phase three of the deal.

05:52Keep in mind, phase one is when they were going to get a bunch of hostages and prisoner

05:55exchanges.

05:56But phase two was going to be when they'd have to actually withdraw from the Gaza Strip

06:01and then an actual ceasefire would come into place.

06:04Phase three, of course, is about reconstruction.

06:06So I could see how the Israeli establishment would go through phase one, even if they didn't

06:13go through it completely, because it meant that they got something out of it.

06:16They got some of the hostages back.

06:19But when it came to phase two, it would be quite a bitter pill, I think, for them to

06:23swallow in terms of doing those sorts of withdrawals.

06:26And you see even the withdrawal that was supposed to take place in phase one, which had to do

06:30with the Philadelphia corridor, they did not go through with.

06:33So I don't think that they ever really wanted to go into phase two at all.

06:36And I think they were going to.

06:38It was always, you know, a real long shot if they were going to.

06:42Definitely the domestic situation in Israel is a factor here.

06:48That's what the Israelis themselves are saying.

06:50You see it all across the Israeli press.

06:52And there's a lot of opposition to this particular resumption of the war because of the fact

06:59that there are still all of these hostages that are still in Gaza.

07:02And the accusation that has been levied at the government is that this is really about

07:07Netanyahu's own domestic woes.

07:10But even without those, even without those woes, I think that the reality is that they

07:14never really wanted to go into phase two in the first place.

07:17Dr. Heller, we'll have to leave it there for now.

07:19Thank you so much for being with us, though, on the programme this evening.

07:23That's Dr. H. Heller from the Royal United Services Institute in London.

07:28In other world news...

Category

Transcript

Recommended