Netanyahu on 'revenge' path against Gaza, unlikely to make concessions, analyst says

FRANCE 24 English

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00Our fears for the fate of the Gaza Strip, with Israel now able to direct its military

00:04effort on the Palestinian territory. The health ministry in the Hamas-run Gaza said

00:08this Wednesday that at least 44,282 people now have been killed in more than 13 months of war

00:15between Israel and the Palestinian militants of Hamas. This total includes 33 deaths over the

00:20past 24 hours, according to the ministry, which said over 104,000 people have been wounded in Gaza

00:27since the war began when Hamas militants attacked Israel on October the 7th, 2023. Let's get some

00:34more analysis of the situation and speculate a bit more on what might happen next. Elijah

00:40Manier joins us, veteran war correspondent and senior political risk analyst. Thank you so much

00:46for being with us. Over 44,000 dead in Gaza. How do you see the story developing there in the wake

00:52of the deal in Lebanon? Thank you for having me. I don't think anything is going to happen

00:59in Gaza that is positive for the Palestinians before the new administration is in office.

01:06I don't think Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is going to make any concessions to the Palestinians

01:14because there is a kind of revenge against Gaza, which is completely different from the situation

01:20in Lebanon. This is why we have seen the Israeli army completely isolating part of the north,

01:27trying to occupy it and trying to empty the first part, I mean, half of the north at the level

01:34of Jabalia camp and Jabalia city, and trying to evacuate as many civilians as possible.

01:41Therefore, the Israeli have created many corridors inside Gaza, one in Jabalia,

01:47one in the Nitzarim that is dividing the north from the south, one in Fitzhahim that is after,

01:54close to Khan Younes, and the fourth one in the Philadelphia corridor on the borders with Egypt.

02:01So Gaza really is devastated, destroyed. Many people have been completely displaced.

02:09And now the only objective of the far right wing government is to annex this part of the north,

02:17and give it to new settlers, as it was the case before 2005.

02:23Indeed, the people you're speaking about, Elijah, of course, are still under bombardment as they're

02:27moving from place to place. Their situation is more and more desperate. Netanyahu, very keen to

02:34trumpet military achievements in Lebanon, but is the truth really that he is a man who is really

02:38under pressure? Because there's the issue about how things have been done in Gaza, and of course,

02:43the overall issue about the hostages who were still not back in Israel.

02:48Well, this is so far, Benjamin Netanyahu has failed in achieving his objective militarily

02:54speaking. So in the military terms, it is not by killing as many civilians as your figures 43,300,

03:03which are very accurate. And then to destroy Gaza, that is not an achievement, because

03:09all the captives are still in captivity. And he did not manage militarily to liberate them.

03:16And we see little interest for the government of Benjamin Netanyahu. Well, actually,

03:23people like the finance minister, Bezalel Smutrich and Ben-Gvir, that the security minister said,

03:31this is not the priority. The priority is the interest of Israel. And the hostages are not

03:38the priority. Therefore, the shift of Benjamin Netanyahu's objective from defeating Hamas,

03:46which didn't happen, because particularly in the month of November, the highest number of Israeli

03:52soldiers and officers were killed in Jabalia and Ashate in the north of Gaza. And the battle is

03:59still ongoing because Hamas did not raise the white flag, and Israel did not free the prisoners.

04:06And in Lebanon, it's exactly the same. Benjamin Netanyahu did not manage to push Hezbollah,

04:14by the military means, beyond the Litani River. 24 hours ago, Netanyahu hailing this ceasefire,

04:22spoke of giving or using it as an opportunity to give Israeli troops rest time in the course of the

04:29secession of hostilities. But is the truth really that this will give Israel the chance to concentrate

04:35its forces on the Gaza Strip? I don't think so. Because first of all, there is no trust,

04:42as your correspondent rightly said. Therefore, the five divisions that are still deployed

04:48along the borders with Lebanon, we're talking about 210, 91, 98, 36 and 146,

04:55they will remain there because they are not really secured in leaving the borders and thinking that

05:03perhaps the cessation of hostility is fragile because the terminology is indeed fragile per se.

05:11And also, there are already divisions in Gaza operating in the West Bank that are reserved

05:18division. Israel has nine divisions all in all, and it has allocated five to Lebanon. So they

05:25really don't need to move the troop to do something more than what they are doing in Gaza.

05:32They have allocated 200 jets for Lebanon, 100 for Gaza, and they have 600 in total. I don't

05:39think the two fronts are going to affect one another. But what is main here is that Israel

05:46did not achieve the objective in Lebanon. And now we have a ceasefire or cessation of hostility

05:53that is in place. It's going to take a few days. There's going to be a few violations

05:57until the committee of France, the US and Israel, Lebanon and Newfield is united so they start

06:04working on all the violations of the cessation of hostility or a ceasefire and try to sort out

06:12the problems that are impossible to sort out all in all. Elijah, can I broaden this out a little

06:17bit more if you don't mind? Netanyahu spoke about dealing with the Iranian threat, the Iran threat.

06:24What do you think he meant by that? Is that something that he alone can address?

06:27Or is this really something part of a bigger picture that involves the United States?

06:32Without the United States, Germany and the UK, Israel would have never did what it has done

06:41in Gaza and in Lebanon. The support that is offered by the allies is essential. The Israeli army,

06:49although they have 450,000 troops and all the effective that is one of the most formidable in

06:56the Middle East, and one of the best in the world, they did not show the same level of

07:02capability and professionalism. Therefore, talking about Iran, when 364 square kilometers in Gaza

07:12were not possible to occupy and defeat Hamas, and 500 square kilometers that is from the borders to

07:20the south of the Litani River in Lebanon, and the Israeli army failed with five divisions,

07:25we're talking about 60 to 80,000 troops, to occupy that area after 50 days, when they managed to do

07:32that in 2006 in 33 days, going to Iran is just tackling the feeling that is emanating from Donald

07:41Trump, who said his next direction is going to be to talk to Iran. But also this is the language

07:48that Netanyahu is addressing domestically, to make sure that people are still afraid,

07:55that he still has a job to do before November 2026. And it is not time yet for him to be

08:02removed or an early election in Israel. Elijah Manier, veteran war correspondent,

08:07senior political risk analyst, joining us from Brussels. Thank you so very much

08:10indeed for your analysis. Much appreciated. Thank you.

Category

Transcript

Recommended