Analysts say Iran will tread carefully in response to Israel

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00:00In the wake of the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike,

00:05Israel's military announced the country is on high alert for potential retaliation.

00:10After Iran's supreme leader vowed that Nasrallah's death would not go unavenged, Israeli Prime

00:15Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has in turn issued a warning to Tehran.

00:20I want to address you, the people of Iran.

00:23Every day you see a regime that subjugates you, make fiery speeches about defending Lebanon,

00:30defending Gaza, yet every day that regime plunges our region deeper into darkness and

00:37deeper into war.

00:39Every day their puppets are eliminated.

00:42Ask Mohamed Def, ask Nasrallah, there is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach.

00:50Iran has indeed taken precautions, hiding away its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in

00:55case he too is targeted.

00:57So far, the country has been reluctant to retaliate.

01:01It hung back after the assassination in July of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in

01:06Tehran.

01:07Now, according to this analyst, Iran is treading carefully about when, or even if, it will

01:13respond to Nasrallah's death.

01:15The message that is coming out of Iran right now is that Iran is going to look out for

01:19Iran.

01:20Iran has no interest in a regional conflict.

01:23It would like to see Hezbollah save itself to some extent, but it's not about to jump

01:29into the fire.

01:30There are also serious concerns that the government of Benjamin Netanyahu is very emboldened by

01:36the fact that, you know, one year of carnage in Gaza it has been able to get away with.

01:42It has done what it has done in Lebanon, including targeting densely populated areas, and therefore

01:48that the next target will be Iran itself and possibly its nuclear weapons.

01:54Iran also wants to keep the door open to a deal with the West on its nuclear programme,

01:58in the hopes of ending crushing economic sanctions re-imposed after the US abandoned a nuclear

02:03pact with Tehran in 2018.

02:06Reviving the pact would become almost impossible if Iran were to enter an all-out war with

02:10Israel.

02:12If it does respond, analysts believe Tehran will likely do so in a way that stops short

02:16of sparking a conflict it can't afford.

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