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Report
'Iran's trying to avoid direct confrontation, whereas Israel's trying to provoke reaction from Iran'
FRANCE 24 English
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4/19/2024
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00:00
For more, we can also speak to Filippo Dionisi, a senior lecturer in politics at the University
00:05
of Bristol.
00:06
Filippo, thank you for joining the program.
00:10
How significant were these strikes that we saw?
00:15
Well, I think, you know, this is part of the process of attack and retaliations that we
00:21
witnessed in the past few weeks between Iran and Israel directly.
00:26
And this is the latest development, although there is no official confirmation that today's
00:32
attack was actually perpetrated by Israel.
00:35
That remains anyway the most likely option.
00:37
I think what is relevant is the type of interpretation that we can give of this latest attack.
00:43
And as your reporter was saying a few minutes ago, it looks like this attack was somehow
00:49
on a lesser scale than what was initially predicted, for example.
00:56
And that makes us think that perhaps, you know, this cycle of retaliations that was
01:01
initially initiated on April 1st with Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus
01:08
may be coming to at least a phase of relative de-escalation.
01:13
Iranian authorities, the way in which they've responded to today's events, seem to downplay
01:19
the relevance of the event itself.
01:21
They themselves not necessarily acknowledge the fact that these attacks have been perpetrated
01:27
by Israel.
01:28
And that is also a sign of the possibility that they may not be interested in continuing
01:33
this process of retaliations against Israel in a direct manner, at least.
01:39
And so at least, you know, relatively speaking, this might be a relatively positive sign,
01:45
even though the rest of the region remain engulfed in a major conflict.
01:50
When you look at these attacks, how clear is it that, I mean, these are old foes, that
01:56
neither Israel nor Iran really understands the other?
02:02
I guess it's not a matter of misunderstanding.
02:06
I think it's a matter of different objectives at this point.
02:10
Iran has said since the beginning, since after October 7, the day of Hamas attack against
02:17
Israel, that it was not interested or did not have any motivation to upscale the conflict
02:24
to a regional level.
02:26
Israel instead has reacted to Hamas attack, also by responding to Hezbollah's attacks
02:33
from Lebanon to Israel, and has constantly tried to escalate and provoke a reaction also
02:40
from Iran.
02:41
Right.
02:42
So it's a matter of misunderstanding that Iran is trying to basically avoid direct interstate
02:47
confrontation with Israel, whereas Israel is trying to provoke a reaction from Iran.
02:53
There is possibly a strategy from Israel and the Israeli government here taking place.
02:58
Attracting a reaction from Iran means also diverting international attention from the
03:05
horrific violence that is taking place in Gaza, for which Israel is accused of genocide,
03:11
by the way.
03:12
So here we go.
03:13
It's a plane against the car, against Iran, means also a way to divert attention and to
03:19
once again revive the narrative of the Israeli government of Israel being under attack.
03:25
So I guess that's more the kind of dynamic that we've seen.
03:27
It's not necessarily a matter of not understanding each other, but perhaps having different objectives.
03:32
US media also reported that Washington had advanced notice of these strikes, but did
03:36
not endorse them and did not play any role.
03:40
Will these actions likely lead to a further wedge, driving a wedge in US-Israeli relations?
03:49
Well, it's hard to say.
03:52
As we saw today, the UN Security Council and the United States have voted against the recognition
03:58
of Palestinian statehood one more time.
04:00
And that means once again that the US is firmly behind Israel.
04:05
And therefore, I don't think we will see, we will witness any major divergence between
04:10
Israel and the United States.
04:13
Although it's true that there are divergences, and the two of them, they are behind different
04:20
strategies.
04:21
The US and the European Union and European states in general are pushing for a diplomatic
04:26
resolution of the Israel-Iran conflict, of course, whereas Israel, on the other hand,
04:32
has a more bellicose stance.
04:34
But again, today's attack seems to leave the door open for a possible de-escalation between
04:39
the two.
04:40
All right, Philippe.
04:41
Thank you very much for your time.
04:42
Philippe de Nijy, joining us.
04:43
Thank you.
04:43
joining us.
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1:10
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