'Most countries in the region would not mind if Iran's footprint were reduced' researcher says

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00:00For more, we're joined now by Randa Slim, Director of Conflict Resolution at the Middle

00:04East Institute.

00:05Thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening.

00:10Randa, Iran is tonight vowing it will launch what it describes as a strong attack to any

00:16retaliation from Israel.

00:18Benjamin Netanyahu leaving no doubt that he does intend to retaliate.

00:23We don't know when, we don't know what that retaliation will look like, but what are you

00:26expecting?

00:28I mean, it is definitely a very dangerous moment, you know, one of the latest in this

00:34region.

00:36It looks like, as you just put it, Israel will retaliate.

00:40The question is where?

00:42Is it going to hit inside Iran?

00:44And if it's going to hit inside Iran, what is going to hit inside Iran?

00:48It's going to be oil terminals, nuclear infrastructure, military facilities.

00:54And then how will Iran respond?

00:56Can Israel wage a third war?

00:59It's already in Gaza, obviously, for nearly exactly a year now.

01:04It's had those incursions into Lebanon as well.

01:07Does it have the resources to take on another war in Iran?

01:11And does Netanyahu have the backing at home?

01:15Well, I think he has the backing at home.

01:19We have seen his popularity spike after what has happened in Lebanon, after the assassination,

01:27especially targeting Sayed Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah.

01:31However, he cannot do a war with Iran or against Iran without the support of the U.S., not

01:38only support politically, but also support militarily.

01:42So you know, and so far the statements coming out of the White House, particularly the National

01:48Security Advisor, seem to indicate they are in conversation with the Israelis.

01:52They are in conversation about the Israeli response.

01:56And it doesn't look like there is a veto on an Israeli response to the Iranian attack.

02:03It's just, I think there are discussions about and debate about what kind of Israeli response

02:09and what's its scope.

02:11Yeah, because in the last few minutes, President Joe Biden as well, he said that he remains

02:15fully supportive of Israel, adding that Washington is in discussions with Netanyahu about how

02:21to respond.

02:22But is there any evidence that Benjamin Netanyahu is actually listening?

02:27Well, I mean, the behavior of Mr. Netanyahu in the last month does not suggest that he

02:35listens to what Mr. Biden, you know, asks of him.

02:39But also there is debate now in the United States about really what did Mr. Biden want

02:45Israel to do, especially in this latest attack against Lebanon, invasion of Lebanon?

02:50I mean, the reports coming out of people in, out of the White House based on reporting

02:57with a senior White House official is that, in fact, they are supportive of Israeli actions

03:05against Lebanon and inside Lebanon.

03:07And they feel like this can provide a once in a generation opportunity to reshape the

03:13Middle East order.

03:14I mean, maybe they need to speak with Ms. Condoleezza Rice about that opportunity to

03:19reshape the Middle East order in 2003, following the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

03:25And the U.S. as well is calling on every nation in the world to condemn this attack.

03:30The EU has done so, various countries independently within Europe have as well, but we've seen

03:35celebrations on the streets in Lebanon.

03:38We've seen people also celebrating in Gaza.

03:41Is Washington out of step in its unwavering support for Israel?

03:48It's out of step, yes, in its unwavering, unconditional support of Israel and of Israel's,

03:56you know, continuing violation of every single norm in the international order, which Washington,

04:03which D.C. worked hard post World War II to put together.

04:08And so, yes, it's out of step.

04:10However, I would have to say that we have not heard really much condemnation from Arab

04:15countries against Israeli attacks on Lebanon or Israeli assassination of Hezbollah military

04:23commanders.

04:24And we haven't yet heard anything about the Iranian retaliation and possible Israeli response.

04:30So it's a mixed bag reaction from the region.

04:33I think most countries in the region would not mind, you know, Iranian footprint to be

04:39reduced, I don't think it's going to be eliminated, but to be reduced tremendously in the region.

04:46But I think there is also wariness of a escalatory spiral that will bring the whole region into

04:52a major conflict.

04:54Is that where we are, though?

04:55We've been worried about this for months now, the prospect of an all-out regional war.

05:00Are we there?

05:02I think we are.

05:03We are in an all-out regional war.

05:05Again, we are very close to it, to the brink, in my opinion.

05:11It's going to depend on what Israel will do next and then how Iran will react to Israeli

05:16action.

05:17But definitely we are in a war on multiple fronts now.

05:21You have Israel in, of course, fighting in Gaza, in the West Bank.

05:27There is also now it's invading a sovereign country in Lebanon.

05:33It's attacking, you know, it has attacked Yemen, it has attacked, and now it's threatening

05:39of attacks all over the region.

05:42And so definitely there is a regional war going on.

05:45Randa, we'll have to leave it there for now, but thank you so much for your time on the

05:48programme.

05:49We do appreciate it.

05:50That is Randa Slim.

05:51She is Director of Conflict Resolution at the Middle East Institute.

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