'Hopefully the Israelis will not overdo it' analyst says as Israel threatens response to Iran's missile barrage

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00:00bring in for analysis Aaron Bregman who joins us from London, senior teaching fellow at the

00:04Department of War Studies at King's College. Aaron Bregman thank you for being with us.

00:11My pleasure. Give us your take on what is happening here because we were attending to talk

00:15about the strategy that Israel was using for the ground incursions but of course events have moved

00:21on somewhat indeed. We've had the missiles fired by Iran and perhaps now Israel about to embark on

00:28some kind of retaliatory strikes. What is Israel's strategy? What is the situation? How do you read

00:33it? Israel will react, it's clear. The pilots are probably sitting in their cockpits now.

00:44Now I hope that President Biden and others urge the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu

00:52not to overdo it because there were very few casualties in Israel. The Iranian attack on

01:00Israel was blocked by Israel and help, American help and therefore there are very few casualties

01:09across Israel, very little damage I think. We do not know the situation in the military bases which

01:18were attacked but hopefully the Israelis will not overdo it and by overdo it I mean an attack

01:28for example on the Iranian oil refineries or even on the Iranian nuclear facilities

01:36will lead to a regional war. But for sure we are to expect a massive Israeli air attack tonight.

01:47We're hearing about casualties, four injured, one Palestinian man dead in Jericho. That's what

01:52we're getting so far which clearly given the scale of what Iran fired at Israel it does seem a very

01:59very small casualty rate indeed. In terms of what happens next then you think there could be some

02:04kind of strategic attack on Israel's behalf? Well the Israelis hint that it's going to be

02:14something which will surprise the Iranians and surprise the world and if I try to think about

02:21potential targets what comes to mind is the oil refineries and it will have an impact not only

02:30on the Middle East but on a world economy because we will see oil prices rocketing. So I hope that

02:38Israelis will not go in this direction and if they do there will be an Iranian reaction response.

02:48So we are now witnessing an escalation in the Middle East not only in Lebanon between Israel

02:57and Hezbollah but also between Israel and Iran. There were many people earlier today saying that

03:05what was happening with the incursion was a great indication that Israel was better prepared than it

03:09was in 2006 when it fell into a war with Hezbollah in many ways and it was an embarrassment for

03:16Israel coming out of that war as well. This time it is very very different and then comes the

03:20attack from Iran. Does that change the situation at all? Do you think that basically this is

03:26perhaps another case of Israel perhaps underestimating what Iran can do?

03:30No, I don't think that they underestimated the Iranian response. I think that they hoped that

03:39it will not happen. That's why they emphasized that the incursion into Lebanon is limited

03:48not to provoke too much the Iranians but the Iranians were provoked enough.

03:54You know the proxy is basically shredded by the Israelis and Iran is coming under

04:03criticism in the Middle East not helping the proxies and therefore Iran reacted.

04:12I think that if there will be a big escalation between Israel and Iran so Israel will have to

04:20focus more on the Iranian front but it will not stop the Israeli operations inside Lebanon which

04:29are going to take weeks perhaps even months. Indeed, as this is happening of course the

04:35situation in Gaza continues doesn't it? Sort of this sense of a multi-fronted conflict. It was

04:41back in December that Jov Galant, the defence minister, was talking about a conflict on seven

04:45fronts and that is very much the case now isn't it? It is not only Gaza but you know we are all

04:53busy with Iran now in Lebanon but it is also the West Bank. I don't know even if you reported it

05:02but two Palestinians entered Israel today to a place called Jaffa near Tel Aviv and killed eight

05:10Israelis. So we are talking about another front which is the West Bank. Yes, for Gaza it is an

05:20unfinished business and it did not go well for the Israelis there. Don't forget that there are

05:29about 100 hostages there. I believe that most of them are dead. So Gaza is an unfinished

05:36business for sure but the centre of gravity now moved to Lebanon and to Iran. With Iran it might

05:48finish. They might exchange a few blows and it might stop. I'm not sure about it but it might.

05:56But in Lebanon it is the main front at the moment. Aaron, is the issue that both sides are claiming

06:04victory, the issue that both Israel and Iran will say that they got the best out of this exchange

06:09and that basically says that this will continue? Not necessarily. I don't think that Iran wants it

06:19to continue and Israel too. The damage to Iran could be substantial and they are now in a place

06:30where they want to restore the better relationship with the West. So I'm not sure that the Iranians

06:39want to have this escalation but they reacted because their proxies or the circle of fire

06:49which they try to build around Israel is collapsing and they are trying to do something to

06:57keep it in place. Dare I use an old-fashioned gangland term? They couldn't afford to lose face

07:02could they? They had to do something. Yeah, absolutely. I think that they had to do something

07:11not least because what the Israelis have done to them is to humiliate them.

07:18And it's not good in the Middle East and it encourages a domestic opposition in Iran itself.

07:29Iran seems to be like a paper tiger and it wants to show that it is not that.

07:40Aaron Bregman, joining us from London, senior teacher at the Department of War Studies

07:45at King's College. Thank you very much indeed sir for sharing your analysis with us here on France24.

07:49We appreciate your time. My pleasure.

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