'New Normal': European Union facing a new 'great power politics'

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00:00And for more on yesterday's EU defence summit, I can bring in Viljana Čakarova, who is the

00:05founder of the geopolitical consultancy FACE.

00:08Good morning, Viljana, and thank you for joining us.

00:11What is your takeaway from this announcement of an increase in defence spending by EU countries?

00:18Good morning and thank you for the invitation.

00:20This is a very important step, but a step that we have expected since the last three

00:26years.

00:27In fact, it was the step in the back kind of action by the US that unleashed these important

00:35steps towards defence.

00:39And in fact, we've needed this already since the beginning of the war in 2022.

00:46What is expected, first and foremost, is important for defence loans, for trade projects.

00:52We know that most of the European member states need to coordinate on defence projects.

00:58Second important step and signal is in terms of suspending certain budgetary constraints

01:04so that member states can increase the defence budgets.

01:07This is good for NATO, but it's also good for the European strategic autonomy towards

01:14filling the gaps, as we've heard from the previous session.

01:19And third important point is to show us a signal towards the ability to relocate actually

01:25existing financial means, for instance, from cohesion funds.

01:30This is about the rest of the 650 billion over the next four or five years.

01:36So 150 billion in loans, 650 billion in terms of, you know, general European Union funds.

01:46Now, from a strategic point of view, and perhaps more specifically, Ukraine, is this going

01:51to be enough or do you see more being needed to do?

01:55So we need to differentiate because what we saw, of course, at the last council meeting,

02:04this was two different tracks.

02:06The one being the sustainable support for Ukraine, because now the European Union members

02:12have to step in and fill the gaps left by the US, right?

02:17So here it is about the military aid for Ukraine.

02:22This is the one track.

02:23And the second track is actually linked to the missing defence capabilities within the

02:29European Union member states, which are, most of them are also European NATO members.

02:35So when it comes to Ukraine, of course, the most important part is about strengthening

02:41Ukraine's defence capabilities.

02:43Here we have this new motto, remember, previously it was whatever it takes, as long as it takes.

02:49Now it is about achieving peace through strength.

02:53That means to help Ukraine be positioned in the most, let's say, in the most advantageous

03:01position in terms of the negotiations, the upcoming negotiations.

03:05And here the discussions are about providing around 30, 32, 32 billion for military aid

03:17to Ukraine.

03:18So, of course, it is a significant step towards, you know, helping Ukraine.

03:24But the open question remains, of course, about how sustainable this is, because you

03:28remember that from previous initiatives, a commitment, especially when it comes to munition

03:35and, you know, weapon systems, they have always been too slow and too undecisive.

03:42Now, like many European leaders, Ursula von der Leyen yesterday was careful not to criticise

03:47Donald Trump head on.

03:49Instead, she was almost thanking him for giving European countries this impetus to increase

03:54defence spending.

03:56What would you draw from this?

03:59We have to be ruthlessly pragmatic about our relationship with the United States, first

04:05and foremost, and secondly, ruthlessly pragmatic about the vastly changing global order.

04:13This is not a time for emotions.

04:15It is not time to feel outraged.

04:18It is time for actions.

04:21What I mean by that is that, first and foremost, now, let's say, going U-turn, like 180 degree

04:30U-turn in the relationship with the United States will not help us further in our ambitions

04:37towards, let's say, European security and defence on the one hand, and support for Ukraine

04:44on the other.

04:45So, we have to try to find the niches and the gaps.

04:49And we know for a fact what Trump demands.

04:51In fact, first and foremost, he wants to withdraw the US presence from the old continent.

04:58We've known that for a fact, and now we act surprised.

05:02Second important point is he doesn't want American troops and American presence in Ukraine

05:08when it comes to military, of course.

05:10So again, here, we need to fill these gaps.

05:13We need to start doing things not only for the sake of Ukraine, but for the sake of our

05:19own security.

05:20We need to become a credible geopolitical actor that is able and willing to secure the

05:28own borders, but also the direct vicinity in the east and in the south.

05:34These are our tasks.

05:35And we do not need to achieve these tasks in a conflict with this US administration.

05:42We have to find these kind of points of intersection, of course, ideologically.

05:49To a certain extent, politically, we might not be on the same page.

05:53Okay, but still, in terms of security and defence, we can find a lot of points of intersection.

05:59And let's not forget that even the relationship with China, if we look at our European understanding

06:06of it, it's not just about, you know, finding ways how to tackle China's, you know, growing

06:12to economic portfolio, but it's also about how to tackle China as a systemic rival.

06:16So here, once again, we need to be more pragmatic on this upcoming, you know, security challenge

06:23that means China and Russia, not just Russia or not just China.

06:29And here I think we can find avenues for cooperation.

06:32Now, one thing that has been absent from coverage is the popular reaction in Europe

06:37to this rise in defence spending.

06:38Of course, we do know there are certain EU states, such as Viktor Orban's Hungary and

06:44to a lesser extent, Robert Fitzel's Slovakia, that are perhaps a little bit more dissenting.

06:50But what about people themselves?

06:52Do you foresee any opposition among citizens of European countries to a rise in defence

06:57spending or potentially a reintroduction of national service in some countries, as

07:03has been suggested?

07:06I do foresee, indeed, populist, you know, discontent and in general a discontent coming

07:15from European citizens, first and foremost, for obvious reasons.

07:19And that is the reason that political leadership for the last few years has not prepared the

07:25citizens for what was about to come, namely that we all here on the old continent were

07:32also in a kind of a non-conventional warfare, meaning, of course, that Russia launched a

07:38non-conventional war on the European security order.

07:42So first, lack of preparedness.

07:44Second important point is actually the point of perception.

07:49If you take a look at polls in some of our member states, it's devastating because European

07:56citizens are not ready or willing to actually participate in any, let's say, a war in terms

08:03of defending their own countries.

08:05So perception is also something that we need to change.

08:10And third important point, of course, is linked to the really grim economic picture in most

08:17of the European member states.

08:19Now, first and foremost, it's about strategic communication to explain that it is not about

08:25new money. It is actually about existing money that will have to be relocated.

08:29Second important point is to convey the message that security comes first because nothing

08:35else, you know, none of the other ambitious goals can be achieved if there is no security.

08:40Third important point here, I think, is to also strategically communicate to the population

08:47that, you know, the welfare system from the last 30 years, in fact, is no longer sustainable.

08:56But it's not just because of the systemic risk being the war, but also because of the

09:02demographics, because of all the other conditions that are no longer in place.

09:06So this article by Financial Times that we are moving from war, you know, from welfare

09:12towards warfare systems is a reality that has been in place, but it was, you know,

09:20politically incorrect to publicly discuss it.

09:23So now we are already there.

09:25The new normal is what we are facing right now.

09:30And it's not just Trump and the U.S.

09:32administration. It's actually a new great powers politics.

09:36And here the European Union with the member states have to become a geopolitical actor

09:42because otherwise we will become the geopolitical backyard of the global affairs.

09:46And this will affect our social welfare system, our economies, because we will be, you

09:52know, on the losing side of global events.

09:55Thank you very much for that, Velina Chakarova, who's the founder of the Geopolitical

09:59Consultancy FACE.

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