Live Super Bowl 59 Betting Insights with Raheem Palmer

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00:00All right, we are out here in the mix in New Orleans on Radio Row with SportsGrid.

00:05Kevin Walsh, Raheem Palmer here with us.

00:08You've seen him before, of course, on the SportsGrid network.

00:10You know his work from the ringer, FanDuel TV.

00:13We're getting set for Super Bowl LII, Raheem.

00:16And I want to get straight to it because you're someone who will model games out, find a number.

00:21So what have the numbers been telling you matching up KC and Philly?

00:25So my number actually makes the Eagles three-point favorites.

00:30And it also likes the under.

00:32I'm not necessarily touching the under, but one of the things that I like to do is in

00:36Super Bowls, you always see, they normally start out slow.

00:39You look at 14 of the last 20 Super Bowls, they've gone under the total with a total

00:44of 48 and a half.

00:45So I tend to like to play second half, highest scoring half.

00:50That's at minus 105 right now.

00:52So I'm going to be playing that.

00:53All right, I like that.

00:54Now your number's coming out Philly minus three.

00:57I'll tell you this, for me, I don't find that as surprising because of how I view this Eagles

01:01team.

01:02I think they are the best in football.

01:04It's not even about a slight to Kansas City.

01:06It is about how I view this Philly team.

01:08If you look at, they have three losses.

01:11Saquon dropped the football, Devonta dropped the football, and then they were missing half

01:14of their offensive starters against Tampa Bay.

01:17Now KC's only lost one game with their starters, I understand that.

01:21But the Philly resume, going to Baltimore, beating up on that football team, destroyed

01:25Cincinnati.

01:26I mean, again, they just scored the most points ever in a conference championship game with

01:29what they did against Washington.

01:32But obviously your number is well off how the books are pricing, which for a Super Bowl

01:36has to be a rarity.

01:37So are you approaching a side?

01:39Are you trying to adjust the number?

01:41What are you thinking?

01:42So this is very tough for me because I always tell people, you don't get extra points.

01:46You don't get extra money.

01:47You don't get extra credit for betting against Patrick Mahomes.

01:51And we've seen it throughout these Super Bowls.

01:53They go down in the first half, and then they come back.

01:55And I tell people, I play the greatest hits.

01:58I wait for the last two Super Bowls, I've waited for the Chiefs to go down, and I've

02:02bet them live in the markets.

02:04I was able to get the Chiefs plus 400 against the Eagles in two Super Bowls ago.

02:08Last year, against the San Francisco 49ers, I got them plus 300.

02:12At points in that Super Bowl, you could have got them at 9-1.

02:16So but for this Super Bowl, what I'm going to do is I'm going to try to get out ahead

02:18of it.

02:19I don't like the Philadelphia Eagles in the first half.

02:22You mentioned the Philadelphia Eagles, their resume.

02:24The fact that they were able to slow down that Baltimore Ravens offense, slow down that

02:28Cincinnati Babels.

02:29I mean, Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase, they were scoring on everybody.

02:33Those offenses couldn't do anything against the Philadelphia Eagles.

02:36And I just think they are a dominant team.

02:39But I don't want to play them full game because I think the Chiefs have the better quarterback,

02:45they have the better coach, and they have the better defensive coordinator.

02:48Steve Spagnola, I mean, he's always able to dial things up to get them back into game.

02:53So I'm going to try to get in and out like a robbery, like Tupac said.

02:56I'm going to take the Eagles first half, and then hopefully, I may be grabbing the Chiefs

03:00on the live markets.

03:01Yeah, and I know that that kind of is the thing for Casey is, ah, look, they'll eventually

03:05always be able to figure it out.

03:07And I understand that they've been able to do that a few times.

03:10They have lost the Super Bowl, though.

03:12I wonder if that is the way it needs to look in order for them to lose, if it has to be

03:16ugly.

03:17I will say, Philadelphia has an ability to extend on football teams.

03:22So I think for Philly, that at least kind of gives them that extra credit, if you will.

03:27You have to have an ability to blow a team out to even think that that could kind of

03:30come into play here.

03:32I think what's very interesting, though, for me is if the inverse happens of Kansas City's

03:39up 10-0, right?

03:40To me, I don't think Philadelphia is dead in the water.

03:45Kansas City can't or doesn't, pick whichever one you want, separate on anyone.

03:51I think that's why, more likely than not, this game will be played with inside that

03:5510-point margin, if you will.

03:58I agree.

03:59You know what, though?

04:00I think if the Philadelphia Eagles get out ahead, there's real blowout potential.

04:06And I truly believe in order to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, you have to knock out the champion.

04:11And I think the Buffalo Bills had an opportunity to do that.

04:14You look, when they were up one with the ball in Kansas City territory, they get that

04:20first down, maybe they go down and they score a touchdown and they get it to eight points.

04:25If they go for two, it's now a two-possession game with less than 10 minutes left in the

04:30game.

04:31And I think the Eagles have that ability with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts to be able

04:35to run out the clock.

04:36And, you know, the one concern I do have right now is that they're saying Jalen Carter, he's

04:41had an illness.

04:43Yeah, that's becoming a very bizarre thing now.

04:46I saw Quinion Mitchell might have laryngitis.

04:50How do you price that sort of thing?

04:52You can't.

04:53It's one of those things where if in the first half all of a sudden the Eagles' offense looks

04:57different than it has all season, then you go, oh great, none of them are actually fine

05:01and now this is going to be a track meet and you're going to have to be able to keep pace.

05:06That isn't...

05:07Look, could Philly, sure, but the best pass offenses they've played are Baltimore, Cincinnati

05:12and Green Bay twice.

05:13One game was Jordan Love's worst passer rating game, the other was his worst QBR game.

05:17Lamar's worst QBR game, Burroughs' worst passer rating game.

05:20So they've done a great job limiting teams and I think that's what they have to be banking

05:23on.

05:24I want to ask you this quickly before I let you get out of here.

05:27Because we do talk NBA a lot, you and I.

05:29The Luka AD stuff.

05:30Oh my God.

05:31I know.

05:32I know.

05:33Right now, the Lakers have Mark Williams.

05:36This season, who do you view as the better team between them, the Lakers and the Mavs?

05:41I'm going to say the Mavericks.

05:42I'm surprised by that, man.

05:44What am I missing?

05:45I just...

05:46To me, I think...

05:47And I'm not high on the Mavericks at all.

05:50I think their offense is going to take a big hit, but I think they should have a top ten

05:53defense.

05:54Yeah.

05:55And I'm not quite sure about the Lakers' defense.

05:56Do you think the defense is going to be that bad?

05:58Huh?

05:59Do you think the Lakers' defense will be that bad?

06:00I just...

06:01Yeah.

06:02LeBron is now actually the second best player on his team.

06:05Yeah.

06:06I have to see the...

06:07Luka is a top five player.

06:08I have to see the fit between Luka and LeBron.

06:09Yeah.

06:10And, like, I love Luka.

06:11Like, to me, Luka is royalty.

06:12I mean, he's must-see TV, whether he's playing in FIBA or Slovenia, the Dallas Mavericks

06:18are now the Los Angeles Lakers, but they're both heliocentric ball players, ball-dominant

06:24players.

06:25How do they fit next to each other?

06:26I think it's a fair question.

06:27I will say I think there were portions of LeBron's career where he needed the ball more.

06:31I think the time with D. Wade, who had maybe less creativity than Luka at the time, so

06:37I'm optimistic on it all.

06:38I think it's going to be fun to watch it play out, and I'm sure at some point during

06:40the year, me and you will chop it up around all of that.

06:43Raheem Palmer, the ringer, NBA TV, you'll see him everywhere as we get set for Super

06:47Bowl 59.

06:48Before we go, Harrison Bucker, over seven and a half kicking points, Chiefs, over one

06:52and a half made field goals.

06:53That's my favorite bet.

06:54There you go.

06:55A couple of extra pieces of action there for you as we get ready for Super Bowl 59.

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