Analyzing Top Contenders at the Gulfstream Park Race

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00:00The next couple might be a bit of a long shot in this spot.

00:03Steel Sunshine's the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile winner.

00:07But he just doesn't really want to go quite this far,

00:10and I don't know about at this level.

00:11Then you have Vitality, who's the Prince of Wales winner,

00:14one of the Canadian Triple Crown races north of the border.

00:18But again, I think we need to see him jump up at this level

00:21and compete.

00:22Randy, what do we do with Mystic Dan, the Kentucky Derby

00:24winner, who came back and he was so flat in the Malibu?

00:27Do we just use that as a prep race

00:28and think he can shake some of the rust off?

00:30I think you can't use him.

00:31I really don't think you can use him at all.

00:34Coming off the Belmont and the way he ran,

00:36and then after the break when they were encouraged

00:38by the way he was training, he was totally

00:41uncompetitive in the Malibu.

00:43He's going to have to show a lot more in this race for me

00:46to even look at him next time out.

00:48But Saturday, no.

00:49And even if he were to get back to one of his better races,

00:51that's still not even really fast enough

00:53to compete with some of the races

00:55that the best in this race have run.

00:58And with that reputation being a Derby winner,

01:00he'll probably always get bet a little more than he should.

01:02So not really a whole lot of value there with Mystic Dan.

01:06Alexa, you like Skippy Longstocking a little bit,

01:08though, in this spot.

01:09I do.

01:09Timeform US also predicts to be the winner.

01:12Typically, his wins come on the front end

01:15and should, I think, be able to get that position pretty

01:17comfortably against these since there's not

01:19a whole lot of pace.

01:20And like Randy said, you really do

01:22want to be near the front in this race.

01:24Multiple graded stakes winner, but never

01:27been able to lock down that grade one win.

01:30He has run in this race the last two years,

01:32and those are like his two worst performances.

01:34So I don't love that pattern.

01:36But from a fitness, pace, and a figure standpoint,

01:40I think he looks great, especially

01:41at those 10 to 1 odds.

01:43You said the word locked.

01:44That's the next horse in here who will probably

01:45be the betting favorite at post time.

01:47And Randy, this horse was actually

01:48favored in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at two.

01:51Then he missed most of his three-year-old year,

01:53which was really disappointing.

01:54But when he showed back up, he's

01:56been a little bit bigger, a little bit better,

01:58a little bit more mature, good speed figures.

02:00And now he goes third star to the forum cycle here.

02:03If all things were equal, I would probably give him

02:06a slight edge over Saudi Crown.

02:08I don't like his post position, though.

02:09I think, A, he could lose some ground on the turns

02:13in relation to Saudi Crown.

02:14And B, he might be a little farther back

02:17than you would want him to be in a perfect world

02:20in a race at Gulfstream with a short stretch like the Pikes.

02:23Rounding out the field, Alexa is power squeeze.

02:25She's the lone filly facing the boys.

02:27She is a grade one winner, but she's

02:28a little light on speed figures.

02:30She is.

02:31I mean, multiple grade six winner,

02:33but never run a performance fast enough to contend.

02:36So I'm going to pass.

02:37So as we finish up with the World Cup,

02:40we move to Randy for selections.

02:42I think we're all kind of looking for the horse

02:44down on the inside to control things, Randy.

02:46So we hope that Saudi Crown is going to get out there

02:48and get aggressive.

02:50Yeah, I think that's why I give him the edge.

02:51I think he's got a pace advantage.

02:53He's got a good post position for that kind of a style.

02:56He's 9 to 2 in the program.

02:58If he's even 4 to 1 or 7 to 2, I think

03:01he's a really, really good value play.

03:04I think Locke will come along for second.

03:06And underneath him and all the exotics,

03:09I'm going to stick Krupi in there, Stronghold in there,

03:13maybe throw a little Mixtos and Skippy Longstocking in there

03:17too.

03:17But I think the big two are Saudi Crown and Locke.

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