Previewing Gulfstream’s Sunshine Classic and Tampa Bay Stakes

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00:00Our focus is going to be out in Florida.

00:02We're going to look at the 10th race

00:04at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.

00:05It's the Sunshine Classic for Florida Brett,

00:07so we'll go horse by horse through that

00:09and then we'll get into a couple of stakes races

00:11at Tampa Bay Downs.

00:12But a quick mention, I know all over the country,

00:14people are dealing with natural disasters

00:17out on the West Coast, fires all over the place.

00:20Middle of the country, it's freezing temperatures.

00:22I know some tracks are canceled.

00:23So hopefully we can entertain you a little bit

00:25and we can lead you in the right direction

00:27and help make you some money for some of the folks

00:29who are dealing with some really tough conditions

00:31out there.

00:31Alexa, let's get to Gulfstream Park.

00:34Let's get to race number 10.

00:35I thought a really challenging edition

00:37of the Sunshine Classic for Florida Brett.

00:40They're going to go a mile and a 16th on the dirt in here

00:42and we'll kick things off with the number one, Power Humor,

00:45who's going to try Stakes Company for the first time.

00:48And the last three horses that he lost to are all in here.

00:52So he's going to have to improve and turn the tables on them.

00:54And what I found in handicapping this race,

00:57there are a lot of horses in here

00:59who are not proven or we haven't seen go a mile and a 16th.

01:02They're all used really horses who have been going shorter.

01:05So we're going to kind of have to project

01:07with some of these horses if they can get this trip.

01:09Yeah, absolutely.

01:10It's a very tough race,

01:12but you know, Power Humor is making that Stakes debut,

01:14like you said, for a very sharp barn.

01:15The Barboza barn's doing very well,

01:18but you know, hasn't really gotten out of the gate

01:19that clearly in a few of those recent starts

01:22and does do his best running from on or near their lead.

01:25So, you know, he might not have the ability

01:27given his lifetime best speed figures

01:29are just kind of slower than a lot in here.

01:31Sometimes I can get a little crazy with horses

01:33that I like, Alexa, but this next one,

01:35I'll see if I can talk you into Kosieris a little bit,

01:37the two.

01:38So I think if you go through Kosieris' recent form,

01:40you'll see horses like Subsanador, Highland Falls,

01:44Tapit Trice, like legitimate grade one

01:47and grade six company.

01:48I think the pattern kind of fits.

01:50This horse likes Gulfstream

01:51and he's capable of winning, going a mile and a 16th.

01:54He's just not as consistent

01:56because he's faced pretty good company.

01:58This is kind of like class relief for him.

02:00His most recent race, it was only a field of four,

02:02but there wasn't much speed.

02:03So he was kind of chasing in there.

02:05I like Kosieris a little bit

02:07and it's just such a challenging race.

02:09Alexa, I think you can make cases

02:10for a lot of horses in here.

02:12You can definitely make a case for him in here

02:13at eight to one.

02:14I mean, you know, he's had those four starts

02:16in nine, four wins and nine starts at Gulfstream.

02:18So he likes the track.

02:20The only time he hasn't really finished in the money

02:21was this race last year where he was six

02:24beaten by 11 and a half.

02:25Like you said, since then faced much better

02:27graded stakes company.

02:29So this competition is definitely gonna be

02:31a more comfortable spot for him.

02:33And when you were talking about last year's race,

02:35the winner of last year's race is the number three.

02:37Lure him in who has one of the higher ceilings

02:39in this field.

02:41Another horse who's been facing open company

02:43since that win against Florida Breds last year.

02:45But we know that if he shows up

02:46with one of his better races, it's pretty good.

02:49Yeah, I mean, you know, career best speed figure that day

02:51when he won last year has not one sense in seven tries,

02:55three of those being graded stakes in Florida,

02:57Texas and New York, but also cross entered

03:00in an allowance at Tampa Bay where he is the six to one

03:03or six to five morning line favorite.

03:04But, you know, could return and win again.

03:08The four horse secret chat feels like a major player.

03:11I think it's probably the horse to beat.

03:13You and I feel like we picked him both second

03:15with our selections.

03:16Maybe we went for a little more value on top,

03:18but it's just really tough to knock

03:20his overall body of work.

03:21The next test he has to kind of pass is,

03:24can he get the mile in a 16th?

03:25But he looked like it should be no problem for him.

03:28Yeah, you know, he's improving.

03:29Who's won both races since entering that Barboza Barn

03:33and returns to this Florida Bred company

03:35where he has two wins and three starts.

03:36So he should sit a nice trip off of the speed

03:39and, you know, stretching out past a mile

03:41for just the second time in his career.

03:43Another horse who's in really nice form right now

03:45is Awesome Train.

03:46He's won two in a row.

03:47And you look at his last five races,

03:49it's pretty tough to knock that overall form.

03:52So he comes into this race sharp.

03:54And I think he's another horse

03:55who you can absolutely make a case for.

03:57I really like Awesome Train.

03:58You know, like you said, he's won two straight,

04:01has really strong back-to-back speed figures,

04:04and has rattled off four career wins since being gelded.

04:07So maybe we're seeing a little bit of a new horse here.

04:10And he is kind of a machine, you know,

04:11making the 12th start from the form cycle,

04:13having at least one race in each of the last nine months.

04:16So a bit of a powerhouse and I like a lot.

04:19Yeah, major player in here.

04:20Another one, One Sharp Cookie is the six

04:22who's back in with Florida Breads.

04:24Had a couple of really nice wins in 2024,

04:27but those races were back-to-back on a muddy track

04:30and on a sloppy track.

04:31So I do wonder if maybe this is a horse

04:33who's a little bit better on an off track

04:36and he's been a little bit better going shorter.

04:38So kind of has a couple questions

04:40that he has to answer for us.

04:41But a lot of these horses on class are kind of similar.

04:45It's just gonna be distance and trip for them.

04:47Yeah, I mean, this horse is probably gonna be a part

04:50of that early pace equation.

04:52He's led in six of his 11 sprint races.

04:56But before that, he did have two wins at Gulfstream

04:58where he won as the odds on favorite.

05:00He's hit the board in a lot of some of his races going long.

05:03So an interesting player for sure.

05:06The number seven, Shaq Diesel for the Laker fans

05:08is a Florida Breads stakes winner

05:10who actually defeated Big Martini at the end of 2023.

05:13If you toss the races where he's had poor starts,

05:16everything else is pretty solid.

05:17I do think he's another one though,

05:18who's probably better at like seven furlongs to a mile.

05:22Might be a little farther than where he's at his best.

05:24What do you think about Shaq Diesel?

05:25You know, he's gotten a little bit of new life

05:27in the David Fox barn with three wins

05:29and seven total in the money finishes and nine starts.

05:33Generally does come back from the back of the pack,

05:35but has been a little bit closer to the pace recently

05:38while stretching out.

05:39I think, again, this race is very tough.

05:42I kind of teetered on whether or not to include Shaq Diesel.

05:45Belts and Brooks is over the last four and now steps up.

05:49He's another one in here who's going to have

05:52to deal with some of the horses

05:53who have beat him recently, right?

05:54Like Awesome Train, like Secret Chat, like Lightning Tone.

05:57So I'm just a little cold on him

05:59and prefer a couple others here.

06:01Yeah, I mean, this is definitely

06:02an ambitiously placed race for him.

06:05You know, trying to change company for just the second time.

06:08You know, four wins in 2024.

06:10So he's been winning, but against quite easier competition.

06:14And like you said, has lost to quite a few in here.

06:15So we would definitely need to see

06:17the best race of his career.

06:19When you and I go back and forth

06:21talking about some of the races before the show,

06:22one that we kind of upgraded a little bit

06:25is Lightning Tones, the nine,

06:26who's not been winning as much recently,

06:29but a horse who's coming out of a really strong race

06:31and is a horse who's in very nice form

06:34with the second and then a third most recently.

06:36So I think this horse fits really well

06:37and could come closing.

06:39I do too.

06:40And I also think it's important to note with him,

06:41like he was winless in 2024,

06:44but has had three wins,

06:45including stakes wins over the Gulf Stream track.

06:47So this is kind of like a specialty placement for him.

06:50And at 12 to one odds, he's the one I went back to

06:53and ended up including in my selections.

06:55You have Super Watson, who's O for his last 12,

06:57but he's going to go first start off the claim

06:59for Safey Joseph,

07:00who's one of the top trainers down at Gulf Stream.

07:02And he'll try dirt for the first time.

07:04So I'm kind of a hemming and hawing a little bit on him,

07:07but anytime a top barn like that makes a move like that,

07:10you want to kind of take notice.

07:11It's trying dirt for the first time after 41 races.

07:14So, I mean, this is really quite the move,

07:17but like you said, Safey is great

07:19and has strong stats for those moves.

07:2133% winning first off the claim, 27% win rate on the dirt.

07:26So, interesting career choice to make,

07:29and I'm not putting my 401k on him,

07:31but I could see a surprise at 20 to one odds with him,

07:35you know, creeping up into the money.

07:37Maybe some improvement from that good barn.

07:39Speaking of that barn,

07:40Safey Joseph Jr. has Holiday Pay as well,

07:43who was a little disappointing last time out.

07:44He was actually favored over Secret Chat,

07:47had a slow start.

07:48Just another one though,

07:49who's done all of his best work

07:50going a little shorter, Alexa.

07:52Yeah, you know, his wins have come from being near the lead

07:55and I want the same position tomorrow.

07:56He has done well so far in these Florida Bread races though.

07:59He's won two out of the four he's competed in

08:01in his two-year-old and three-year-old year.

08:03So, interesting play.

08:06Big Martini rounds out the field.

08:08I'm more of like a Jack and Coke captain guy myself,

08:11but this horse will try to control the pace

08:14from the outside, but parked way out there,

08:17will really have to be on his A game

08:18to kind of clear over

08:20and to maybe be able to control this pace.

08:22Yeah, this is longest he's ever tried.

08:24So, there's no denying his talent,

08:26but it's gonna be a tough spot for him.

08:28In a very difficult, contentious race,

08:30let's move to the selections and see where we end up.

08:33So, for you, Alexa, who are you gonna put on top in here?

08:36I've got the five awesome terrain on top over Secret Chat.

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