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'Transitional govt must be 'representative of all groups in civil society, not just armed factions'
FRANCE 24 English
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12/9/2024
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00:00
I bet we're going to get some more analysis on the situation in Syria now.
00:03
We can cross live to Emma Beals from the European Institutes of Peace.
00:07
Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24.
00:11
I'm going to come from where we left off with Doug there.
00:14
The question on everyone's lips, what is going to happen next?
00:18
Is it going to be Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that's going to try to assume power in Syria?
00:24
Well those conversations are ongoing at the moment.
00:27
So you've seen some images emerge today of HTS's civilian branch meeting with former
00:34
government.
00:35
So the regime government, not the Assad family and those sort of cronies, but people who
00:40
were ministers to try to talk about a peaceful transition of the functions of the state.
00:48
You also have some conversations going on between these various armed factions about
00:53
who will be doing what.
00:54
But of course we also have the UN-led peace process with the political opposition on the
01:00
Syrian side and a whole lot of civil society as well.
01:03
And then this has kind of tipped things upside down because these armed factions, as they
01:09
were going along, were calling all sorts of different communities of different sects and
01:13
backgrounds and saying, you know, we mean you no harm, please sort of don't fight us.
01:19
And that's exactly what happened.
01:21
So you've seen in Tartus and Latakia and places that were thought to be regime strongholds,
01:27
in part because of politics, but also in part because of background, also having cooperated
01:33
with this.
01:34
So, you know, the UN-led peace process will probably need to take place, going back to
01:38
this idea of a transitional government that is representative of all of those groups within
01:44
civil society, not just the armed factions, to make sure that this next phase is peaceful,
01:50
that the things of looking at the constitution and how the country is going to be run under
01:54
civilian rule will be representative of all Syrians, but also safe for all Syrians as
02:01
well.
02:02
All right.
02:03
And Nabil, I'm just going to ask you to hold on there for a moment because we've just made
02:05
contact with our senior reporter in Damascus, in Syria.
02:09
We're just going to check in with him to see what the situation is like there.
02:13
James Andre is on the line with us.
02:15
James, what is the mood there in Damascus?
02:19
Is it still joy reigning or are we getting a feeling of uncertainty?
02:23
Well, look, it's very much joy.
02:26
I'm in, I'm in Umayyad Square in the central, central of Damascus.
02:31
And indeed, what I'm seeing here is a lot of celebratory gunfire, families out walking
02:37
around.
02:38
There is a group of people who are standing on a T-72 tank that's parked here.
02:43
The tank that was obviously part of Bashar al-Assad's army, the regime's army.
02:49
And indeed, people basically just very, very happy celebrating on the way in here.
02:54
What we saw also was basically a clear road, no soldiers from the Syrian army whatsoever.
03:03
We just drove right in and we saw groups of people who had been in forced exile, some
03:08
of them for over 10 years, arrive, jump out of their cars, prostrate and kiss the soil
03:14
of their country, telling us that it was their dream.
03:17
One lady said, you know, I did not imagine I would see it again before my death.
03:23
So obviously a lot, a lot of joy here.
03:25
Also, I've been speaking to people here on the square.
03:28
One woman we interviewed with the team who told us that we asked her if she was worried
03:33
for, you know, giving the Tadiz and Islamist coalition taking power.
03:36
She said, no, I'm not worried for the future of women in Syria.
03:39
I was much more worried before under the regime.
03:43
Also, we spoke to one of the rebel commanders from Idlib who was here with his men, indeed
03:50
meeting the population.
03:51
So, of course, for him, you know, it was quite an achievement to manage to come to Damascus.
03:55
Obviously, in this blitz, this military blitz with indeed the Syrian forces, this is what
04:03
he told us, who were not holding their positions, was basically leaving their positions, leaving
04:08
their guns and basically running away.
04:12
So, indeed, they were able to advance very rapidly, given the context.
04:16
He was telling us as well that, yes, the celebratory gunfire is not exactly the kind of image that
04:22
the new rulers, if you will, of Syria want to show.
04:26
So he was telling me that, you know, you can't stop people from celebrating today, because
04:30
obviously it is such an historic and important day.
04:33
But he said, you know, as soon as tomorrow, they were going to ban from celebrating gunfire
04:38
and confiscate the weapons of those who wouldn't comply.
04:41
So, indeed, trying there again to, well, show control of the city and the situation.
04:49
And, of course, you can hear the gunfire behind me right now.
04:53
And, of course, well, amidst both this joy, which is also some form of chaos, try and
05:00
take control of this country where we've seen a lot of people along the road ripping down
05:05
the pictures of Bashar al-Assad, destroying his statues.
05:10
So, yes, very much a feeling that this country, or at least this is at this stage, there is
05:16
joy and the feeling of liberation.
05:19
All right, James Andre reporting for us there live from Damascus, along with some live pictures
05:25
on your screens there of Damascus.
05:27
We're going to go back to Emma Beals from the European Institute of Peace, who's still
05:32
with us.
05:33
I wanted to ask you, HTS is a designated terrorist organisation by the US and other states.
05:39
So how will the outgoing and incoming administrations in Washington deal with this if the group
05:44
is to assume power in Syria?
05:46
Well, I think it's unlikely that any one group will assume power.
05:51
And HTS, you know, when they took Aleppo had said that they would, you know, leave the
05:56
city and for there to be civilian rule there.
05:58
So I don't think that their plan is to try to take over wholesale, because I think they
06:03
understand the context better than that.
06:06
And they certainly weren't the only armed group that made this happen.
06:10
And therefore, they understand that that won't go over very well.
06:13
But I do know that countries are looking at whether or not the designation should be maintained.
06:19
Because over the last while, HTS have undergone a major sort of transition in how they operate.
06:25
They have removed away from any kind of transnational terrorism.
06:30
They have gone after other factions in Idlib who have those aspirations, and that's been
06:35
happening over a very long time, not just very recently.
06:37
What we've also seen in the way that they've conducted this campaign, and of course, the
06:41
proof will be in the pudding.
06:42
We will see how this plays out over the coming weeks and months.
06:45
But they have been very conciliatory to other other sects, religions, groups sort of saying
06:52
we're all Syrian, very much a Syrian first message, allowing, you know, Christian communities
06:58
to continue their worship and not bothering anyone in that respect.
07:03
Today, we've seen some suggestions that they're also saying it would be forbidden for any
07:07
of their fighters to talk to women about how they should be dressing or conducting themselves.
07:12
And those kind of things would really indicate quite a huge shift, quite an understanding
07:17
that they're not going to be able to come in and really push a deeply conservative role.
07:22
And I think that those sorts of signs are the things that people who are in charge of
07:26
these sorts of designations would be looking to as to whether or not this is a group that
07:30
they would be able to deal with, even if they form part of a government in the future.
07:35
All right.
07:36
And I think, Doug, did you have a question?
07:39
Yeah, quick question, Emma.
07:41
Just curious, you know, we've heard that, you know, Assad fled and was offered a sanctuary
07:45
in Moscow by the by the by the Kremlin.
07:48
And I'm just curious what you make of that, obviously, Russia for many years being the
07:52
backer and perhaps the power that enabled Assad to remain in power from 2015 on.
07:59
What were Russia's motives for giving him sanctuary?
08:04
How much of a of a defeat do you see this for Russia's policy in this region?
08:09
Well, I think we heard at the beginning of the revolution, this idea of Assad or we burn
08:14
the country.
08:15
And that's basically what has happened over the last nearly 14 years.
08:18
He burned the country to protect himself.
08:21
And so I think it was it's very clear that he was prepared to do that.
08:25
And so, you know, that kind of deal making, I think, was ostensibly because Russia and
08:29
Iran did not want to come in and fight for him, but knew that there was, you know, a
08:35
strong possibility that he would be inclined to fight for himself.
08:38
And nobody, none of the regional states, Russia or Iran, by the time, you know, these rebel
08:43
groups reached Damascus, wanted to see street to street fighting in Damascus, the collapse
08:47
of that city, you know, violence across there and everything that that would mean.
08:52
And so that kind of deal, I imagine, was primarily about making sure that whatever
08:56
came next, it did not involve, you know, the total degradation of order in the country
09:02
because it has been so long, you know, Russia was talking to rebel groups about protecting
09:07
their own interests and getting Assad out, I believe, helped them to do that.
09:13
But in terms of a defeat, it's it's huge.
09:15
You know, he has been maintaining Assad's rule, has been a central part of their foreign
09:20
policy for for a long time.
09:22
It's obviously not the only priority for either Russia or Iran.
09:26
But this kind of of catastrophic defeat so quickly, you know, and sort of having to evacuate
09:34
this this fellow out after everything that they had sort of done to help preserve his
09:38
role in order to preserve their own interests will be, you know, extremely embarrassing
09:42
for them.
09:43
All right, Emma Beals from the European Institute of Peace, I'm afraid we'll have to leave it
09:47
there.
09:48
But thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24.
09:50
Thank you for having me.
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