'Transitional govt must be 'representative of all groups in civil society, not just armed factions'

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00:00I bet we're going to get some more analysis on the situation in Syria now.

00:03We can cross live to Emma Beals from the European Institutes of Peace.

00:07Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24.

00:11I'm going to come from where we left off with Doug there.

00:14The question on everyone's lips, what is going to happen next?

00:18Is it going to be Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that's going to try to assume power in Syria?

00:24Well those conversations are ongoing at the moment.

00:27So you've seen some images emerge today of HTS's civilian branch meeting with former

00:34government.

00:35So the regime government, not the Assad family and those sort of cronies, but people who

00:40were ministers to try to talk about a peaceful transition of the functions of the state.

00:48You also have some conversations going on between these various armed factions about

00:53who will be doing what.

00:54But of course we also have the UN-led peace process with the political opposition on the

01:00Syrian side and a whole lot of civil society as well.

01:03And then this has kind of tipped things upside down because these armed factions, as they

01:09were going along, were calling all sorts of different communities of different sects and

01:13backgrounds and saying, you know, we mean you no harm, please sort of don't fight us.

01:19And that's exactly what happened.

01:21So you've seen in Tartus and Latakia and places that were thought to be regime strongholds,

01:27in part because of politics, but also in part because of background, also having cooperated

01:33with this.

01:34So, you know, the UN-led peace process will probably need to take place, going back to

01:38this idea of a transitional government that is representative of all of those groups within

01:44civil society, not just the armed factions, to make sure that this next phase is peaceful,

01:50that the things of looking at the constitution and how the country is going to be run under

01:54civilian rule will be representative of all Syrians, but also safe for all Syrians as

02:01well.

02:02All right.

02:03And Nabil, I'm just going to ask you to hold on there for a moment because we've just made

02:05contact with our senior reporter in Damascus, in Syria.

02:09We're just going to check in with him to see what the situation is like there.

02:13James Andre is on the line with us.

02:15James, what is the mood there in Damascus?

02:19Is it still joy reigning or are we getting a feeling of uncertainty?

02:23Well, look, it's very much joy.

02:26I'm in, I'm in Umayyad Square in the central, central of Damascus.

02:31And indeed, what I'm seeing here is a lot of celebratory gunfire, families out walking

02:37around.

02:38There is a group of people who are standing on a T-72 tank that's parked here.

02:43The tank that was obviously part of Bashar al-Assad's army, the regime's army.

02:49And indeed, people basically just very, very happy celebrating on the way in here.

02:54What we saw also was basically a clear road, no soldiers from the Syrian army whatsoever.

03:03We just drove right in and we saw groups of people who had been in forced exile, some

03:08of them for over 10 years, arrive, jump out of their cars, prostrate and kiss the soil

03:14of their country, telling us that it was their dream.

03:17One lady said, you know, I did not imagine I would see it again before my death.

03:23So obviously a lot, a lot of joy here.

03:25Also, I've been speaking to people here on the square.

03:28One woman we interviewed with the team who told us that we asked her if she was worried

03:33for, you know, giving the Tadiz and Islamist coalition taking power.

03:36She said, no, I'm not worried for the future of women in Syria.

03:39I was much more worried before under the regime.

03:43Also, we spoke to one of the rebel commanders from Idlib who was here with his men, indeed

03:50meeting the population.

03:51So, of course, for him, you know, it was quite an achievement to manage to come to Damascus.

03:55Obviously, in this blitz, this military blitz with indeed the Syrian forces, this is what

04:03he told us, who were not holding their positions, was basically leaving their positions, leaving

04:08their guns and basically running away.

04:12So, indeed, they were able to advance very rapidly, given the context.

04:16He was telling us as well that, yes, the celebratory gunfire is not exactly the kind of image that

04:22the new rulers, if you will, of Syria want to show.

04:26So he was telling me that, you know, you can't stop people from celebrating today, because

04:30obviously it is such an historic and important day.

04:33But he said, you know, as soon as tomorrow, they were going to ban from celebrating gunfire

04:38and confiscate the weapons of those who wouldn't comply.

04:41So, indeed, trying there again to, well, show control of the city and the situation.

04:49And, of course, you can hear the gunfire behind me right now.

04:53And, of course, well, amidst both this joy, which is also some form of chaos, try and

05:00take control of this country where we've seen a lot of people along the road ripping down

05:05the pictures of Bashar al-Assad, destroying his statues.

05:10So, yes, very much a feeling that this country, or at least this is at this stage, there is

05:16joy and the feeling of liberation.

05:19All right, James Andre reporting for us there live from Damascus, along with some live pictures

05:25on your screens there of Damascus.

05:27We're going to go back to Emma Beals from the European Institute of Peace, who's still

05:32with us.

05:33I wanted to ask you, HTS is a designated terrorist organisation by the US and other states.

05:39So how will the outgoing and incoming administrations in Washington deal with this if the group

05:44is to assume power in Syria?

05:46Well, I think it's unlikely that any one group will assume power.

05:51And HTS, you know, when they took Aleppo had said that they would, you know, leave the

05:56city and for there to be civilian rule there.

05:58So I don't think that their plan is to try to take over wholesale, because I think they

06:03understand the context better than that.

06:06And they certainly weren't the only armed group that made this happen.

06:10And therefore, they understand that that won't go over very well.

06:13But I do know that countries are looking at whether or not the designation should be maintained.

06:19Because over the last while, HTS have undergone a major sort of transition in how they operate.

06:25They have removed away from any kind of transnational terrorism.

06:30They have gone after other factions in Idlib who have those aspirations, and that's been

06:35happening over a very long time, not just very recently.

06:37What we've also seen in the way that they've conducted this campaign, and of course, the

06:41proof will be in the pudding.

06:42We will see how this plays out over the coming weeks and months.

06:45But they have been very conciliatory to other other sects, religions, groups sort of saying

06:52we're all Syrian, very much a Syrian first message, allowing, you know, Christian communities

06:58to continue their worship and not bothering anyone in that respect.

07:03Today, we've seen some suggestions that they're also saying it would be forbidden for any

07:07of their fighters to talk to women about how they should be dressing or conducting themselves.

07:12And those kind of things would really indicate quite a huge shift, quite an understanding

07:17that they're not going to be able to come in and really push a deeply conservative role.

07:22And I think that those sorts of signs are the things that people who are in charge of

07:26these sorts of designations would be looking to as to whether or not this is a group that

07:30they would be able to deal with, even if they form part of a government in the future.

07:35All right.

07:36And I think, Doug, did you have a question?

07:39Yeah, quick question, Emma.

07:41Just curious, you know, we've heard that, you know, Assad fled and was offered a sanctuary

07:45in Moscow by the by the by the Kremlin.

07:48And I'm just curious what you make of that, obviously, Russia for many years being the

07:52backer and perhaps the power that enabled Assad to remain in power from 2015 on.

07:59What were Russia's motives for giving him sanctuary?

08:04How much of a of a defeat do you see this for Russia's policy in this region?

08:09Well, I think we heard at the beginning of the revolution, this idea of Assad or we burn

08:14the country.

08:15And that's basically what has happened over the last nearly 14 years.

08:18He burned the country to protect himself.

08:21And so I think it was it's very clear that he was prepared to do that.

08:25And so, you know, that kind of deal making, I think, was ostensibly because Russia and

08:29Iran did not want to come in and fight for him, but knew that there was, you know, a

08:35strong possibility that he would be inclined to fight for himself.

08:38And nobody, none of the regional states, Russia or Iran, by the time, you know, these rebel

08:43groups reached Damascus, wanted to see street to street fighting in Damascus, the collapse

08:47of that city, you know, violence across there and everything that that would mean.

08:52And so that kind of deal, I imagine, was primarily about making sure that whatever

08:56came next, it did not involve, you know, the total degradation of order in the country

09:02because it has been so long, you know, Russia was talking to rebel groups about protecting

09:07their own interests and getting Assad out, I believe, helped them to do that.

09:13But in terms of a defeat, it's it's huge.

09:15You know, he has been maintaining Assad's rule, has been a central part of their foreign

09:20policy for for a long time.

09:22It's obviously not the only priority for either Russia or Iran.

09:26But this kind of of catastrophic defeat so quickly, you know, and sort of having to evacuate

09:34this this fellow out after everything that they had sort of done to help preserve his

09:38role in order to preserve their own interests will be, you know, extremely embarrassing

09:42for them.

09:43All right, Emma Beals from the European Institute of Peace, I'm afraid we'll have to leave it

09:47there.

09:48But thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24.

09:50Thank you for having me.

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