If HTS were to hold on to Aleppo, 'they would have to find new ways of building new govt structures'

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00:00And we begin in Syria, where insurgents captured four new towns early Tuesday and are nearing

00:13the central city of Hama.

00:15This according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights War Monitor, which adds that

00:20this has been some of the most violent clashes so far.

00:25Syrian government forces also retook some territory they lost last week, but rebel groups

00:31have seized large swaths of the country in this offensive that was launched last week.

00:37In just days, they've reversed years of gains by forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad.

00:43Now Russian forces supporting Assad's regime are bombing rebel-controlled areas, causing

00:49hundreds of casualties and displacing nearly 50,000 people.

00:54Solange Mujan tells us more about the civilian toll.

00:59Filming in and staking their ground in this palace is a prize in and of itself for these

01:03insurgent fighters, for it had been one of President Bashar al-Assad's residences.

01:09The symbolic seizing was part of a lightning-fast storming of Aleppo, which began November 27th.

01:15It was, for the coalition of groups, the biggest success against the Assad regime in years.

01:22Clashes between a constellation of insurgents and Assad's troops and his allies have now

01:27broken out across the war-torn nation, killing hundreds.

01:31It has also upped the ante among different foreign powers involved in Syria.

01:35According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Iran-backed Iraqi soldiers have been

01:41crossing into Syria to support al-Assad troops, and Russian jets have been bombing the insurgent

01:46positions in the northwest, like in Idlib.

01:49For civilians, full-on war is back in their lives, in a conflict that began in 2011 with

01:55al-Assad's crackdown on democracy protests, but which had been largely frozen since 2020.

02:01We woke up to the sounds of terror, fear and airstrikes.

02:05I can't describe the horror we witnessed and what we felt.

02:09We live in a camp that's next to a family that was hit.

02:13The UN says they are alarmed by the escalation of the sudden violence, which has in less

02:18than a week displaced nearly 50,000 people.

02:22More than half of them are children.

02:25Syrians have endured the conflict for nearly 14 years.

02:29They deserve a political horizon that will deliver a peaceful future, not more bloodshed.

02:35With violent clashes continuing in places like Idlib, Hama and Deir al-Zor, but also

02:41elsewhere across Syria, the UN's Human Rights Office says that civilians are being killed

02:45in the crossfire.

02:47Adding to an already dire humanitarian situation, where nearly 17 million people in Syria depend

02:53daily on humanitarian aid.

02:57And for more on this conflict, we welcome Jérôme Dravan to the program.

03:02He is a senior analyst on jihad in modern conflict at the International Crisis Group,

03:07which is an NGO dedicated to preventing and resolving deadly conflict.

03:12Thank you so much for being here with us today on France 24.

03:17The leading insurgent group in this fight, the Islamist group Hayat al-Sham, this is

03:22a new entity, a new name for many people who don't follow Syria closely.

03:26Can you just explain who leads this group and how it's financed and supported?

03:33So Hayat al-Sham, or HTS, usually is referred to, is led by a militant called Abu Mohammed

03:40al-Jawlani, who was the founder of the Nusra Front, which was an affiliate of al-Qaeda.

03:47But he created this group in 2017 when he severed ties with the organization and wanted

03:51to do something that was more local, that was different, and that would be totally disconnected

03:55from global jihad.

03:57So it's independent, though it coordinates to some extent with Turkey for tactical issues.

04:04Can you tell us more about Turkey's role?

04:07There's so many different players here in this conflict, and I'm hoping you can help

04:12us understand better how they intersect.

04:14So what is Turkey's role in supporting the insurgents, and what is their interest?

04:22In the case of this battle, many armed groups were involved.

04:26Some of the armed groups are united under the so-called Syrian National Army, which

04:31is directly trained and equipped by Turkey, and those are located in the north of the

04:35city of Aleppo.

04:37But HTS and its allies are located in the Idlib province, and they are more independent

04:42from Turkey.

04:44They mostly act on their own, even though they receive some type of material support,

04:49some limited weaponry for the non-HTS groups.

04:53But there is still some coordination on military matters in order to understand how to best

04:58conduct military battles on the ground.

05:01And what do we know about the current state of the Syrian government and the Syrian army?

05:08Were they caught off guard by this offensive, and do they appear to be strengthening now

05:12or not?

05:13Now, if anything, it shows the succession of events last week show the ill-preparation

05:20of the Syrian army and of allied militias.

05:23The Syrian regime's military forces were unable to resist the onslaught of the armed opposition.

05:32They had to withdraw under pressure and to go back to the south of the Aleppo province

05:38next to the city of Hama.

05:40So now they might try to reinforce some of their defense lines, but I think it's unlikely

05:45for them to be able to get back to the north, including the city of Aleppo.

05:49They might try to push back to some extent, but I think that their level of organization

05:54will not allow them to lead a successful military campaign.

05:58Now, Russia and Iran have supported, have propped up the Syrian regime.

06:06They, of course, as we know, have been very intertwined and busy with their own conflicts

06:12in Ukraine for Russia and in Gaza and with Hezbollah for Iran.

06:20But when it comes to Russia stepping up airstrikes now inside Syria, this is having a terrible

06:26impact on civilians.

06:28But can Russia afford to continue to support Assad while it's fighting its own war in Ukraine?

06:36I think it can, because Russia's involvement in Syria is quite, it's quite low cost.

06:41It mostly consists in bombings, bombing civilian infrastructures, such as schools, hospitals,

06:48and so on.

06:49So it's not very costly for them because they don't need to have the same manpower that

06:53they have to mobilize for Ukraine, for example, because the manpower in Syria is mostly provided

06:57by Iran allied militias, such as the Hezbollah or Iraqi groups and so on.

07:04So the Russians are going to continue being involved.

07:07But at the same time, their limited involvement, in a way, means that they will be less likely

07:12to be able to retrieve some of these territories.

07:15So mostly what they can do is punish the civilian population that lives with the under position,

07:20but not really be able to push back the front lines.

07:24You said that Iran is providing the manpower for the Assad regime.

07:31What does that mean when you say that?

07:34That means that when the city of Aleppo was first taken by the regime by the late 2016,

07:41Russia destroyed the infrastructure of the armed opposition, and Iran linked militias

07:46coming from mostly from Iraq, mobilized on the ground.

07:49So they were the ones pushing and taking new territory, setting up defense lines, fighting

07:55directly with the insurgents.

07:57So that happened in 2016, but it's less likely to happen successfully now because those groups

08:02have been under pressure, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon.

08:06But also Iran might be looking at new ways of addressing the Trump administration, which

08:10means Iran might not be as likely to promote the presence of these militias in Syria.

08:17And that's without thinking of the Israeli cards.

08:22Israel might also be able to target those militias, thinking that they represent a long-term

08:26threat to its own security.

08:29The final player I want to ask you about are the Kurds, who are also a U.S. ally.

08:36What is their role currently?

08:39So the Kurds are mostly present in the eastern part of the country, where they control billions

08:43of civilians and really large parts of Syrian territory.

08:48They control some pockets around Aleppo, in the north of Aleppo in particular, and northeast

08:54of Aleppo.

08:55But there has been a real pushback by some of the groups more directly promoted and supported

09:01by Turkey.

09:02And so they had to negotiate some agreements with HTS and with other groups to be able

09:08to withdraw their forces because they knew that they couldn't really fight back.

09:11They didn't really have the military ability to do so.

09:15And finally, Jerome, as the insurgents appear to be nearing Hama, the fourth largest city

09:21in Syria, I'm interested in what you think will happen in Aleppo, the second largest

09:25is now controlled by insurgents.

09:27Do you think that the government is going to try to take the city back?

09:32And if they can't, what would governance look like there?

09:36So that would be a challenge for HTS and other opposition groups, because Aleppo is a very

09:41different city from the region that they are controlling in Idlib.

09:46They would have to deal with a population that's more diverse, that might not agree

09:50with their agenda.

09:51Some of them might be even fearful of their influence.

09:54So they would have to make concessions.

09:56They would have to address the fears of the population and find new ways of building new

10:01governance structures with them.

10:03So this is going to be very challenging for them.

10:06I think they've tried to express their desire to do so, but they will be judged accordingly.

10:11Jerome Dravan from the International Crisis Group, thank you so much for joining and helping

10:17us understand this really complicated story.

10:19Appreciate it.

10:21Bye.

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