HTS' record in Idlib ‘not a liberal democracy by any stretch of the imagination’, analyst says

FRANCE 24 English

International diplomats reacted cautiously Monday to the prospect of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group taking control in Syria after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. HTS has its roots in the Syrian branch of Al Qaeda and is proscribed as a "terrorist" organisation by Western governments. Aaron Y. Zelin, Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says that HTS' governance in Idlib was not a "liberal democracy by any stretch of the imagination".  Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00This is apropos. It marks one of the biggest turning points for the Middle East in generations.

00:07The fall of Bashar al-Assad has triggered celebrations across Syria and beyond at the

00:13dramatic end of five decades of his oppressive rule. The Syrian government fell after rebels

00:18seized the capital Damascus over the weekend and Assad fled to Russia 11 days after the

00:23start of the militia's lightning advance. Residents cheered in the streets amid celebratory

00:29gunfire as rebel factions heralded the departure of Assad. With the latest, here's Antonia Kerrigan.

00:41In the streets of Damascus, residents triumph over the toppling of Bashar al-Assad,

00:46climbing onto the tanks abandoned by his army, some describing a feeling of disbelief.

00:52I can't describe the feeling. It's a dream, a dream we haven't woken up from yet.

00:58A newfound sense of freedom after years spent in a climate of fear.

01:06We were unable to talk about the fact that we were persecuted and living without dignity.

01:11Everyone who went abroad would tell us that there are such things as human rights,

01:15but we didn't see any of it. Hopefully, now the country will get better.

01:20And some of those who left the capital at the beginning of the war have now been able to return,

01:25this one as a rebel fighter.

01:30We smell the air of Damascus that we were deprived of.

01:35We were deprived of it for 13 years. We returned, thank God, and things are fine.

01:43Hayat Tahrir al-Sham claimed the capital on Sunday after a 10-day-long lightning

01:47offensive that deposed the president. Residents celebrated the end of the Assad

01:51family's half-century-long dictatorship by looting the presidential palace,

01:56while this government immigration office went up in flames

01:59and this portrait of Bashar al-Assad's father torn down.

02:03The future is uncertain for Syria. What will life look like under the Islamist group

02:07Hayat Tahrir al-Sham? But Syrians worldwide describe relief and optimism.

02:22Aaron, huge uncertainty for Syria as we heard in that report. The start of a new era,

02:28but what kind of era?

02:32I think that a lot could potentially play out still. Based off of how we've seen Hayat Tahrir

02:38al-Sham govern already in the previous seven or eight years in Idlib province,

02:43it was an authoritarian governance model. So while not quite as bad as the totalitarianism

02:49of the Assad regime, it wasn't a liberal democracy by any stretch of the imagination.

02:54How do you unite all these various rebel forces? They, in turn,

02:58they're backed by rival international powers. So how exactly will a new government govern?

03:05So far, it seems like at least HTS is able to consolidate in the western part of the country,

03:11where now in the east there's renewed fighting between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army

03:17and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, the latter being the key player that the US

03:22has worked with on the ground to fight the Islamic State. So it would definitely be

03:27disastrous if the SNA was able to take over territory from the SDF because it can provide

03:33the space for the Islamic State to become a bigger problem once again.

03:37Yeah, because there are concerns that the likes of the Islamic State will take advantage of the

03:41uncertainty currently in Syria and regroup the rebels themselves. They claim to have broken ties

03:46with al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups. Have they?

03:51Yes. HTS broke ties with al-Qaeda back in 2016. So we have an eight and a half year track record

04:00of them now being independent of any global jihadi interest, external operations, terrorism

04:05abroad. They've only focused on Syria and there's no reason not to believe them, especially since

04:11when al-Qaeda tried to create a second branch in Syria called Quraish al-Din back in 2018. By

04:16June 2020, HTS was able to dismantle them and we haven't heard from al-Qaeda in Syria since.

04:22So while they are not global jihadis, the way I kind of describe it is that this transition went

04:28from them being involved in global jihad to now them being a local regime.

04:33We saw, we've seen throughout the day, images of inmates being released from

04:37various prisons across Syria. There's thousands of jihadists also from the West and their families

04:42detained in camps in the country run by Kurdish forces. What happens to them?

04:49Well, for now in the areas that the Kurds run in northeast Syria, nothing has changed in terms of

04:56the administration. The US continues to back the SDF and the US alongside the SDF continues to

05:02monitor and guard these prisons. There's 10,000 male Islamic State operatives imprisoned and then

05:09you also have tens of thousands of women and children that were affiliated with them through

05:15marriage or they're the kids of the fighters. And that's why it's more important than ever that

05:21Turkey stops the Syrian National Army from continuing to fight the Syrian Democratic Forces.

05:25And what do you make of the reaction here in Europe? We've seen

05:28various Western capitals saying that they're going to suspend asylum applications from all

05:35Syrians. What do you make of that? They're saying it's due to the uncertainty,

05:38Austria going as far as to say that it's going to deport them back to Syria.

05:44Well, I think we've seen from a number of countries over the last year or so that's

05:48been their goal and they're just using this as now an excuse to try and get rid of Syrians

05:53quicker. Part of the reason why we saw some countries in Europe like Italy, for example,

05:58reaching out to the Assad regime before they actually fell. So now they're using this to try

06:03and push that dynamic forward, especially since we saw statements from HDS calling for

06:09those that are refugees from Syria to return home and to help build this new state.

06:14And do you think that foreign governments are going to grant recognition to transitional

06:18authorities? We've seen France coming out this evening in the last little while

06:21saying that they will work with them. What kind of response do you see

06:25in the days ahead, in the weeks ahead? I think most countries will be relatively realistic,

06:32especially since the situation still isn't completely stable. And the fact that unlike,

06:40say, the Taliban, which never gave up on al-Qaeda and continues to gaslight people

06:45about its presence in Afghanistan, HTS actually went after al-Qaeda and destroyed them. So while

06:52they do have a terrorism designation, it's kind of a remnant of the past. Of course, I think

06:58there will be some negotiations and that there will probably be some asks by the United States

07:04in particular, maybe other countries that HTS does that could potentially facilitate this.

07:09However, it's definitely a sensitive topic because we've never seen in the history since 9-11

07:16that a jihadi group has been taken off the terrorism list while they're still active

07:20and not a group that had become defunct. Aaron, talk to us a little bit about the

07:25impact on the wider region. What we're seeing unfold in Syria at the moment,

07:30does it essentially reshape the balance of power in the Middle East?

07:34It's definitely a monumental event that could truly change the geopolitical dynamics in the

07:39Middle East. Syria was this key cog in the so-called axis of resistance by Iran. And now,

07:46if that's blocked off, it hurts their ability to rearm Hezbollah after the beating they got

07:52from Israel post-10-7. And therefore, one of the biggest losers in this is probably Iran.

07:58And Russia also. What kind of a blow is it for Vladimir Putin? We see, of course,

08:03that Assad, he's been granted asylum seemingly in Moscow today.

08:09Yeah. I mean, there's been this narrative over the years that the US at a certain point will

08:15give up on its allies and flee when it's good for them. But now we could say that the Russians

08:23are doing the same thing, where Assad was the only key government in the Mediterranean that

08:30he had close ties to, and having a warm water port that he was then able to project for their

08:35operations into sub-Saharan Africa. So it could severely diminish their capabilities and prestige,

08:42but also hurt their power projection because they parlayed their going into Syria in 2015

08:52to assist the regime and push back against the rebels originally to try and take some of the

08:58partnerships away from the United States, such as with Egypt or some of the Gulf states. So

09:02it could definitely assist the US in rebuilding some confidence maybe with some of its allies

09:07in the region. And what about Assad himself? If he has been granted asylum in Moscow,

09:12it seems that he has. Will he ever face justice? Considering the fact that Vladimir Putin was

09:21indicted by the ICC and he hasn't had his day in court yet, it's unlikely, unfortunately,

09:26that Bashar will, unless he, for whatever reason, tries to travel through certain countries that

09:31would likely arrest him. That being said, I would argue that it's important to try and still get

09:38him as well as any other figures involved in this regime, since the level of human rights violations

09:45is probably only second to Nazi Germany when we're thinking of the last seven or eight years.

09:51And who or what do you believe is ultimately responsible for the fall of the regime of Assad?

09:56Does it simply come down to the support that he had been receiving from Russia, from Iran?

10:04I think part of it is that the regime was very much hollowed out by a decade ago and the Russians

10:09and the Iranians, through Iran's Shia militia, helped really assist in bringing back some

10:15semblance of the regime through territorial control. But the regime was so stubborn not to

10:19make any reforms. And as a consequence, we see what happened, especially since there was such

10:25a lightning strike by HTS. And by the time that there was a potential for there to be a counter

10:29offensive, it already became so existential that the writing was on the wall and there was a

10:33momentum. And we've seen what's happened now since, which is quite surprising to, I think,

10:37everybody in the world. And there's still huge uncertainty in Syria,

10:42the rebels vowing to maintain state institutions and to restore order. Will they be able to be?

10:47Do you think they have the support of people behind them? And also, what do you make of the

10:51amnesty that has been issued for the Syrian military?

10:57I think that's one of the biggest questions about how they're able to scale up sort of their

11:02governance model that they did in northwest Syria over the last seven years and how they can do that

11:07throughout the entire country. We saw them already implementing it on a small scale in Aleppo

11:12after they took Aleppo. But now they really have to do it across the board. And that's one of the

11:16reasons why there's going to be a transition period between the old regime institutions

11:21and turning it into sort of the institutions that HTS already has established previously.

11:26In terms of the amnesty specifically, I mean, it's smart. It won't create a problem for HTS.

11:33It's sort of learning the lessons of the failed de-Baathification process that the U.S. did in

11:38Iraq, which led to many people without a job and on the streets and angry. And therefore, now people

11:46can be free of any worry that they might be prosecuted by a new HTS government. Since most

11:52of these people that the amnesty is for is for people who are forcibly conscripted. It wasn't

11:56just people that voluntarily did it. And so these people can go back to their normal life and

12:01integrate back into Syrian society. And from the perspective of HTS, hopefully give something back

12:06to society now. Many questions remain. Aaron, thank you so much. We'll have to leave it there

12:10for now. Thank you so much, though, for your time on the program. That is Aaron Wiesel and senior

12:14fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Well, that's it from us.

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