Embezzlement trial poses 'significant threat' to Le Pen's 2027 presidential run

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00:00First, a jail sentence, a fine and a ban from public office for half a decade. All possibilities

00:12facing Marine Le Pen as the far-right French leader grapples with a case that could derail

00:18her bid for the presidency in 2027. At the heart of the trial is the question of whether

00:23Le Pen and other officials in her party misused European Union money. She has dismissed the

00:30allegations yesterday describing the prosecution's claims as outrageous.

00:36Selina Sykes has our report.

00:39A five-year prison sentence, a two million euro fine and most importantly a five-year

00:45ban from public office with immediate effect. That's what Marine Le Pen and other far-right

00:50national rally officials now face, after French prosecutors laid down their request

00:55on Wednesday in the trial for the party's alleged misuse of EU funds. Although she said

01:00she wasn't surprised, Le Pen denounced the motion as excessive.

01:06The prosecution is, in reality, trying to deprive me and even deprive the French people

01:11of the ability to vote for who they want.

01:17The only thing the prosecution is interested in is Marine Le Pen. To ask once again for

01:22my exclusion from politics with immediate effect and then the national rally so they

01:26can ruin the party.

01:31Throughout the trial, Le Pen has repeatedly maintained her innocence and has dismissed

01:35the accusations as politically motivated. She is among more than 20 national rally officials,

01:41including her father Jean-Marie Le Pen and her sister, accused of hiring assistants who

01:46worked on party affairs between 2004 and 2016, rather than for the European Parliament

01:52which paid them. The system of alleged fake jobs was first flagged in 2015. The European

01:58Parliament said it's lost three million euros. The national rally has already paid back one

02:04million, which it said was not an admission of guilt.

02:08The national rally's chairman, Jordan Bardella, was quick to call the prosecution's demands

02:13an assault on democracy. The European Parliament's legal team said the law applies to all.

02:19Whether we're talking about someone elected into office or an ordinary citizen with no

02:23political power, everyone is equal before the law.

02:28Le Pen's biggest concern is the potential five-year ban from public office with immediate

02:32effect, even if an appeal is lodged. This would not only apply to her if convicted,

02:38but all two dozen defendants on trial. If granted by the court, Le Pen will be ruled

02:43out from running for the presidency in 2027, which could be her most promising attempt

02:48yet after losing out to Emmanuel Macron in the second round in the last two elections.

03:09Thanks for having me.

03:10Look, how serious do you think this case is for Le Pen? Could it really derail her goal

03:16of reaching the presidency?

03:19I mean, I think if I'm honest, this is probably the most significant threat to her reaching

03:24the presidency in the next election, precisely because it will bar her from seeking office.

03:31And I think things are not looking good because we have to remember this is, despite what

03:35she says, it's an attempt to deprive the French people of the candidate that they

03:38want. The allegations are not actually coming from France itself, right? They're coming

03:42from the European Union. So it isn't that she can, I think, spin it. How Donald Trump

03:47spun it in America that this is some kind of lawfare and a way of trying to frustrate

03:52the will of the people. This is something that's coming from outside. And the fact that

03:56the national rally has already paid back a million euros, to me, says that there's some

04:00quite significant weight to these allegations. OK, they've said that this is not an admission

04:05of guilt, but I mean, why else would you pay back a million euros unless you were guilty?

04:10To me, that just doesn't make any sense.

04:11And look, Le Pen has long dismissed the case as being politically motivated. You mentioned

04:16Donald Trump there. And I do wonder whether Le Pen is trying now to take a leaf out of

04:22Trump's playbook and argue, really, that she's a victim of some kind of witch hunt.

04:27Precisely. I think you're spot on. But I think this goes much broader than just simply taking

04:33a leaf from Donald Trump's playbook. One of the things that far-right movements thrive

04:37on is the persecution complex, right? So one of the key ways that they reach out to their

04:43supporters is by spinning this narrative, sometimes overtly, sometimes covertly, that

04:49they are the people that really represent them. And it's a corrupt establishment that's

04:54trying to frustrate their efforts, whether it's making America great again, or in the

04:58case of France, making France great again, or in the case of Nigel Farage in the UK,

05:03making Britain great again. So this actually ties in so neatly, really, to a key part of

05:09both their ideology, but also their marketing strategy to their voters. And I think that

05:13is where some of the danger lies for stability within France and stability within French

05:18society is what will be the result of her potentially being prosecuted. And we have

05:24to also put this into the broader political context around Macron and his actions after

05:30the recent legislative elections that were widely seen as trying to frustrate the will

05:34of the people in terms of a huge amount of votes that came for both the far left and

05:39for the far right. So I think France is in quite an awkward position here, even if I

05:44don't agree that this is some kind of lawfare that's seeking to prosecute this candidate.

05:50It may be too early to assess this, but I'm interested as to whether we have a sense at

05:54this point as to how much traction Marine Le Pen's arguments are getting now with French

06:00people. Is she going to be able to persuade people here that she is the victim of a witch

06:05hunt?

06:06Yeah, and I think this kind of remains to be seen. I do think that there's a significant

06:13element of her kind of quite loyal supporters that will see this as part of a witch hunt.

06:18The problem is that there is a much more general and growing sense within French society, partly

06:25due to the sort of revolutionary heritage, but also because of the increasing penetration

06:30of sort of conspiracy theory type narratives into the individual's life through things

06:35like social media, Elon Musk's ex, telegram channels, that there is something afoot, right?

06:42There is an elite somewhere that's seeking to frustrate the will of the people. Now,

06:46people believe that that's some corporate banking elite, or the perhaps more moderate

06:51believers in that would say it's the French establishment, French bureaucrats, French

06:56politicians, whatever it is. Her being prosecuted fits so neatly with this, but I actually don't

07:04think that the main threat from the national front actually even necessarily comes from

07:09Marine Le Pen anymore, right? She's run into elections and she's failed. She's also the

07:14daughter of really the founder of the party, right? So she in a sense can easily be disparaged

07:20for allegations of nepotism. I don't think she's particularly been that much of an inspirational

07:25leader. For me, the real threat comes from Jordan Bardala, someone that comes from a housing estate

07:32in the suburbs of Paris, someone who is a man. I don't know if France is necessarily ready,

07:37and especially the more right-wing voices in France are ready to elect a female president

07:42of the republic. So actually, even if this does derail Marine Le Pen, I think this actually

07:48might bring forward other candidates from the national rally who actually might even be more

07:52likely to be able to win an election than Marine Le Pen. And I think that's where also the

07:58danger lies in the sort of medium to long term. That is super interesting. And the political

08:03reaction to this case has been quite fascinating as well. Gérald Darmanin, who is a former

08:09interior minister here in France. He is crucially a member as well of President Emmanuel Macron's

08:14party. So a relatively centrist right-wing voice here. He's taken to the platform X to voice his

08:21concerns about the trial of Marine Le Pen. Let's have a listen to what it is that he's had to say.

08:27It would be deeply shocking if Marine Le Pen were judged ineligible and thus unable to stand for

08:31election. Madame Le Pen must be fought at the ballot box, not elsewhere. If the court rules

08:36that she must be condemned, she cannot be condemned electorally without the people say,

08:41let us not be afraid of democracy and avoid further widening the gap between the elites and

08:46the vast majority of our fellow citizens. And Joseph Downing, look, what do you make of that?

08:52The fact that Darmanin, a politician from the governing party opposed to Marine Le Pen, therefore,

08:58is effectively saying she should be allowed to run, even if the court finds she has committed a crime.

09:04Hmm. No, no. And I think he understands really well the kind of point that I was making earlier

09:10about the fact that the far-right thrives on this persecution complex, right? I think

09:16if you do bar her from office, paradoxically, it might increase their popularity.

09:20What you don't want to do with far-right individuals like Le Pen is turn them into martyrs,

09:26right? Is to give them that ability. And I think that's been one of the key

09:30problems in the US. And to me, it's kind of irrelevant whether charges are appropriate

09:38or not to be brought against somebody. I'm not getting into that discussion with Donald Trump,

09:41but just the fact that charges were brought against him enabled him to play into that

09:46persecution complex, enabled him to spin that narrative and say, no, look, they're trying to

09:51get me because I want to do what's right for you. And I think he really understands that

09:56and understands that, you know, that there's a really delicate balance. I mean,

10:00you know, one of the key, there is an interesting part of this whole legal process where

10:04they're asking for her to be condemned to custody before an appeal, right? So there are certain

10:10aspects of this where the prosecutors really are going in very heavy handed. And that is the part,

10:16I think, that could be very easily to be seen as perhaps politically motivated.

10:21Joseph Downing talking to us there from the University of Aston. Good to get your views.

10:26Thanks very much. Thank you very much.

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