Smylie Kaufman Analyzes Changes in Golf Event Point Distribution

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00:00So this is something last year when we were talking about the signature event changes and the way

00:08points are going to be distributed. And you were kind of doing some of this math. This doesn't make

00:12any sense. This does not make any sense at all. And we're not a math pod. And I immediately said

00:18there is something wrong here. That should have been the first red flag.

00:23So the entire I spent like a tired day going through the through the data and just was

00:30mind blown. I was like, nobody has a chance that's not in the signature events. Well,

00:34you know who else did the same thing is our boy Maverick McNeely did a deep dive on this,

00:40came up with a better system, just shared it with some friends. Somehow it started making

00:44the rounds circulating. Everyone on tour is talking about it. He gets invited to join the

00:48pack. His wife convinces him to do it in July and goes of this proposal. And they're taking a vote

00:54on this in about a week. And if you go into into place in twenty twenty five. So this is I find

00:59this so fascinating. So he's going through all this and he found like this really good test case

01:04in Corey Connors. So he compared Corey's sixth place finish at the RBC Canadian Open this year

01:10and the T20 at the Memorial the following week. And so the the sixth Canadian Open here is 100

01:17FedEx Cup points. Memorial, it's ninety seven point five points. So essentially the same thing.

01:21We're going to call that a wash. Right. Corey. So then he's he's trying to find a metric to

01:26illustrate why this is sort of warped. He goes a true strokes game that you can get through data

01:30golf. Corey at the Canadian Open was positive two point seven eight strokes gain at Memorial,

01:35just one point seven eight. So just like this is like this doesn't make any sense. So his quote

01:41here is if you play the same quality of golf, no matter what tournament you're playing, you should

01:45get the same number of points. The person the person be different because, you know, obviously,

01:50you know, signature events, you're awarding guys who have really good years. But I think just

01:53because you finish top 50 doesn't mean you should earn more points the following year than the guy

01:57who played just as well. So presents this to the tour. The tour says amazing. They run it through

02:05their own set of simulations, do their own research. They come to the exact same conclusion,

02:09smooth out the curve, and they're not presenting this on the pack. And Camilo Vegas, his quote is

02:15he's a genius, dude. He doesn't know the numbers. It came up what he thinks is a lot more fair way.

02:19We studied the whole situation, and it is fair. So I give him credit for that. And in a nutshell,

02:24what the proposal boils down to is a slight increase to second place points for majors.

02:29This is something he also found via the data and the players and a slight decrease in points to

02:36positions 11 and beyond for for full field events and a slight decrease of signature event points

02:42in positions seven and beyond. So he just has a again, not a math pod. That's your first

02:48disclaimer. But just smoothing out those curves. As you get 11 beyond a full field, seven and beyond

02:54in signature events, and then increasing points for finishing high majors. So smiley, a lot of

03:01data, a lot of information I've thrown at you there. Your response to what Mav the homework

03:06Mav did and corrected this thing, the issue that you found with this almost immediately.

03:10Yeah, there's there's two or three things I'll say, and I'll start with this. I'll ask you,

03:15is the pack back? The pack might be back. The Pac-12, the Pac-2, that is not back. The PGA Tour

03:23pack very much back. They seem back right now. I mean, we have the Camilo sending the email

03:32about the changes of, you know, the events and how much how many players are going to be playing.

03:40In these full field events and and now we have Maverick McNeely basically going full Albert

03:45Einstein and figuring out the correct way to have the right distribution curve on the on these

03:51points lists. And so, OK, maybe the pack is back. The second thing I'll say is that in 2017,

03:59this would have been my second year on tour. They made an adjustment to the points and it was much

04:05more of the area from about 20 to 35. There was too many points being awarded in that area. And

04:15they eventually what they did was take some points away and put more points towards the top.

04:21So there were there were guys that were like if you were a top 25 machine, like in 2016,

04:27which was my rookie year, you were you were just so many points, like so many points.

04:33So I think this this whole this isn't the first time this has happened. And I know that we have

04:38a new point system with signature events. So it's not apples and apples comparing.

04:43But it's not the first time they've made a bit of an adjustment to the curve.

04:49My thoughts on what Maverick has done. It's like you don't say like this is what I've been

04:55saying is that this is wrong and they needed to fix it.

05:00So I guess the what what what jumps out at me and I think that it was obvious that the open

05:08field events when you finish six at Canadian Open and you finish six or you finish excuse me,

05:13if you finish 20 at the memorial, you know, are those the same? And we talked about this

05:18the beginning of last year. And I can make an argument. You're playing a tougher field,

05:24but you're also playing less guys, you know, compared to 156. There's a cut.

05:28So there's a lot of different ways that you can value of, you know, how we got to six points

05:34versus 20th and which one deserves more points. And that was Maverick's whole argument. It's like,

05:38fine, if you finish in the top 50, take the money, take all the money you want, but do not

05:44take away points for guys that are playing just as well in an open field event. And that's the

05:51big the biggest argument in this that I completely agree with. So it seems as if strokes gained data

05:59is what is somehow the tour is true, which I I also that is now we're using true strokes gain

06:09data as complete fact. I know some people have holes in strokes gain data. So you know, that's

06:18a whole different thing about like, you know, just looking at relative field sizes and you know,

06:24strokes game versus baseline if it's, you know, but again, apparently the model apparently there's

06:29like just there's just raw strokes gain data, like for these events. And then I guess within

06:34data golf, the true strokes gain corrects for all these sorts of things. And so there's sort of a

06:39a comparative, you can look at that number and compare it to other events. And for the most part

06:45can say that that that there, you know, you don't have to do anything to change the data to

06:49account for field size or, you know, or field strength or whatever, whatever. But I what you

06:55said right there is exactly the way I feel. And it's almost like that's the that's the it's it's

06:59we all know it's wrong. And we all know, like simply from the bat, like that something didn't

07:04make sense. But I think that the piece of intelligence that Mav had, that helped distill

07:09it was just seizing on what part of it was wrong. And also make making an eloquent argument where

07:14it's like, hey, I get it. You know, at face value, it seems like you're doing these new events.

07:19They have all the best players in the world. Yeah, the person should be bigger, and they should give

07:24more points. But being able to kind of split up, right, we're still playing all these events on

07:29tour. And if a guy's playing just as good or better golf in this event, you know, looking at

07:35strokes game playing against the course, whatever, why are we penalizing that guy like give the guys

07:39in the signature events more money, that's completely fair. You know, that's, that's the

07:43bonus they earn finishing top 50. But let's just reward good golf across the entire year in a fair

07:51way. And I think that's like such so much easier to make it make sense for people than like, you

07:55know, trying to compare does a six equate to a 20th, you know, if you're comparing signature

08:01events in full fields.

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