'The name of the game is keeping Ukraine intact through the winter', expert says

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00:00Ukraine's president has been visiting an armaments factory this Monday.

00:04Volodymyr Zelensky toured the site in Pennsylvania. He arrived in the United States on Sunday

00:08for a crucial visit to present Kyiv's plan to end

00:11two and a half years of war with Russia. Zelensky bills it as Ukraine's victory plan.

00:19As his motorcade approached the ammunition plant, a small number of supporters gathered to show

00:24their appreciation for Volodymyr Zelensky's visit.

00:27But the Ukrainian president was there to give thanks himself

00:31as factory workers ramp up production of 155mm artillery shells,

00:37rounds desperately needed by the Ukrainian army to fight off Russian advances.

00:42At one point in the war, Ukraine was firing between 6,000 and 8,000 of the shells per day,

00:48which started to deplete American stockpiles.

00:50The US now aims to manufacture 100,000 rounds per month.

00:55The visit kicked off a busy week for Zelensky in the US

00:59as he tries to shore up support for Kyiv's war effort.

01:02After speaking at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday and Wednesday,

01:06he'll hold talks with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in Washington on Thursday

01:10and is expected to meet with Donald Trump.

01:14It's this fall that we'll decide what happens next in this war.

01:18Ukraine will present the victory plan in the United States

01:21and the President of the United States will be the first to see it in full.

01:27In particular, Zelensky's hoping to finally receive permission to use

01:31American longer-range missile systems to fire deeper inside Russia.

01:36Vladimir Putin has warned that Russia would be at war with the US

01:40and its NATO allies if they allow Ukraine to use the weapons.

01:44Zelensky's trip comes after a summer of intense fighting,

01:48with Moscow advancing in the eastern Donbass region

01:51and Kyiv holding on to swathes of Russia's Kursk region.

01:54It also coincides with US efforts to prepare a $375 million military aid package for Ukraine,

02:02breaking a months-long trend towards smaller packages.

02:14We appreciate your time.

02:15How important is this visit for Zelensky and for Ukraine?

02:20Hi, Mark.

02:21It's imperative.

02:22So Zelensky knows the pressure's on.

02:25He has to convince Biden to do something different

02:29and he has to build a good relationship with Harris.

02:34And Trump, look, Trump has said a lot of different things,

02:36but he needs to build a workable relationship with Trump.

02:39The election is sort of 50-50,

02:41so the Ukrainians don't know who's going to come out ahead in the election.

02:46But Zelensky really feels time pressure

02:49because right now we've got Biden for four more months

02:54and he thinks that he needs to make a case

02:57and that Biden may be amenable to doing certain things he's been unwilling to do before.

03:02Is there anything you can tell us about this victory plan,

03:04give us a sense of what Zelensky might be planning?

03:07I know you can't give us everything, but can you give us some kind of hints?

03:11Yeah, Mark, it hasn't been revealed yet,

03:13but Zelensky did an interview in The New Yorker

03:15and he put some of the details out there.

03:17So one thing that is certain

03:18is that Zelensky is going to push for NATO membership again.

03:22And it seems like there may be some openness with President Biden.

03:26So President Biden doesn't have a whole lot of time left as president.

03:30He's sort of thinking about his legacy.

03:32So that's one area I expect him to push on.

03:34Number two, I expect President Zelensky to ask for fewer restrictions on US weapons.

03:41And this has been in the news.

03:43We've talked about this many times.

03:45It may not be announced publicly and that's still a win.

03:47So that's something else I'd be watching for.

03:49Economic cooperation is area number three.

03:52And number four, so there's a small limited period of time

03:56and Zelensky is calling on the West to stand up and do more now.

04:00And he's going to ask for more military capabilities.

04:02I don't know what those are,

04:03but those are the things that I'm watching for in the next day or so.

04:06He toured a munitions factory this Monday.

04:09What message is that sending?

04:12So it's really interesting that he went to this plant in Pennsylvania

04:15and he had the governor of Zaporizhia, which is out in the east with him.

04:19And last night, Zaporizhia got hit with missile strikes.

04:22So I thought that was really good symbolism.

04:24But Zelensky went to the workers.

04:26He didn't go to the top brass.

04:28He shook hands.

04:29He did retail politics.

04:30I thought it was a very strong moment.

04:32He's trying to make those connections,

04:34bridge the connections between ordinary Ukrainians and ordinary workers.

04:38I thought it was a strong moment.

04:40And what a way to start the tour.

04:43The request from Ukraine, though, from the very, very start,

04:46has been very consistent, hasn't it?

04:47It's been obviously more weapons.

04:48It's been air defences.

04:51But now, of course, this further request,

04:53the green light to use the weapons beyond Ukraine's borders.

04:58How important is that, do you think, for what Zelensky wants to do next?

05:03So the name of the game right now, Mark,

05:05is keeping Ukraine intact through the winter.

05:07The winter is going to be brutal.

05:09It's going to be the third winter that Ukraine has been at war.

05:12And the power grid is very, very vulnerable.

05:15So Ukraine needs more air defence systems.

05:18It's expected to get about seven Patriots or big air defence systems this fall,

05:23which is good.

05:24But it's not enough to protect the grid.

05:26The grid is heavily damaged.

05:28The UN has put out a report that says that there will be blackouts

05:31between four to more than 10 hours every day

05:35as those temperatures begin to decline.

05:37And that has knock-on effects.

05:38It has knock-on effects on the economy, for education.

05:41There's 100,000 Ukrainian children that are doing online schooling.

05:45And it's going to impede their access after many years of up and down education.

05:50So that's something I'm worried about.

05:52But Zelensky's got to keep the state alive.

05:54He's got to keep unity together in his military.

05:58And look, the pressure is on for him to make some kind of deal.

06:02This is not going to go on forever and ever.

06:05If Donald Trump is elected,

06:07he's very worried that America is going to zero out assistance pretty quickly.

06:12And he has to contend with that.

06:14So he's here to shore up relations,

06:16build relations with everyone he can,

06:18and push Biden as much as he can over the next four months.

06:21But he's really decided to play offense.

06:24That's what he's doing here.

06:26He's been pushed over and over again.

06:27What is a theory of victory?

06:28And the Ukrainians said it was a return to the 91 borders,

06:31plus Crimea, plus the Russians would leave, justice would be established.

06:37But now he's saying we've got to be able to seize territory.

06:42We've got to be able to go to the negotiating table and get a deal.

06:46The other thing that he says, Mark, that's important is justice is a non-negotiable.

06:50He said that a couple of times in his interview.

06:52So that's a point that I expect him to come back to as well.

06:55Justice is non-negotiable.

06:57Thank you, as always, for your insight.

06:59We do appreciate it.

07:02Thank you once again.

07:04We will be watching all developments.

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