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Report
'The name of the game is keeping Ukraine intact through the winter', expert says
FRANCE 24 English
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9/23/2024
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00:00
Ukraine's president has been visiting an armaments factory this Monday.
00:04
Volodymyr Zelensky toured the site in Pennsylvania. He arrived in the United States on Sunday
00:08
for a crucial visit to present Kyiv's plan to end
00:11
two and a half years of war with Russia. Zelensky bills it as Ukraine's victory plan.
00:19
As his motorcade approached the ammunition plant, a small number of supporters gathered to show
00:24
their appreciation for Volodymyr Zelensky's visit.
00:27
But the Ukrainian president was there to give thanks himself
00:31
as factory workers ramp up production of 155mm artillery shells,
00:37
rounds desperately needed by the Ukrainian army to fight off Russian advances.
00:42
At one point in the war, Ukraine was firing between 6,000 and 8,000 of the shells per day,
00:48
which started to deplete American stockpiles.
00:50
The US now aims to manufacture 100,000 rounds per month.
00:55
The visit kicked off a busy week for Zelensky in the US
00:59
as he tries to shore up support for Kyiv's war effort.
01:02
After speaking at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday and Wednesday,
01:06
he'll hold talks with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in Washington on Thursday
01:10
and is expected to meet with Donald Trump.
01:14
It's this fall that we'll decide what happens next in this war.
01:18
Ukraine will present the victory plan in the United States
01:21
and the President of the United States will be the first to see it in full.
01:27
In particular, Zelensky's hoping to finally receive permission to use
01:31
American longer-range missile systems to fire deeper inside Russia.
01:36
Vladimir Putin has warned that Russia would be at war with the US
01:40
and its NATO allies if they allow Ukraine to use the weapons.
01:44
Zelensky's trip comes after a summer of intense fighting,
01:48
with Moscow advancing in the eastern Donbass region
01:51
and Kyiv holding on to swathes of Russia's Kursk region.
01:54
It also coincides with US efforts to prepare a $375 million military aid package for Ukraine,
02:02
breaking a months-long trend towards smaller packages.
02:14
We appreciate your time.
02:15
How important is this visit for Zelensky and for Ukraine?
02:20
Hi, Mark.
02:21
It's imperative.
02:22
So Zelensky knows the pressure's on.
02:25
He has to convince Biden to do something different
02:29
and he has to build a good relationship with Harris.
02:34
And Trump, look, Trump has said a lot of different things,
02:36
but he needs to build a workable relationship with Trump.
02:39
The election is sort of 50-50,
02:41
so the Ukrainians don't know who's going to come out ahead in the election.
02:46
But Zelensky really feels time pressure
02:49
because right now we've got Biden for four more months
02:54
and he thinks that he needs to make a case
02:57
and that Biden may be amenable to doing certain things he's been unwilling to do before.
03:02
Is there anything you can tell us about this victory plan,
03:04
give us a sense of what Zelensky might be planning?
03:07
I know you can't give us everything, but can you give us some kind of hints?
03:11
Yeah, Mark, it hasn't been revealed yet,
03:13
but Zelensky did an interview in The New Yorker
03:15
and he put some of the details out there.
03:17
So one thing that is certain
03:18
is that Zelensky is going to push for NATO membership again.
03:22
And it seems like there may be some openness with President Biden.
03:26
So President Biden doesn't have a whole lot of time left as president.
03:30
He's sort of thinking about his legacy.
03:32
So that's one area I expect him to push on.
03:34
Number two, I expect President Zelensky to ask for fewer restrictions on US weapons.
03:41
And this has been in the news.
03:43
We've talked about this many times.
03:45
It may not be announced publicly and that's still a win.
03:47
So that's something else I'd be watching for.
03:49
Economic cooperation is area number three.
03:52
And number four, so there's a small limited period of time
03:56
and Zelensky is calling on the West to stand up and do more now.
04:00
And he's going to ask for more military capabilities.
04:02
I don't know what those are,
04:03
but those are the things that I'm watching for in the next day or so.
04:06
He toured a munitions factory this Monday.
04:09
What message is that sending?
04:12
So it's really interesting that he went to this plant in Pennsylvania
04:15
and he had the governor of Zaporizhia, which is out in the east with him.
04:19
And last night, Zaporizhia got hit with missile strikes.
04:22
So I thought that was really good symbolism.
04:24
But Zelensky went to the workers.
04:26
He didn't go to the top brass.
04:28
He shook hands.
04:29
He did retail politics.
04:30
I thought it was a very strong moment.
04:32
He's trying to make those connections,
04:34
bridge the connections between ordinary Ukrainians and ordinary workers.
04:38
I thought it was a strong moment.
04:40
And what a way to start the tour.
04:43
The request from Ukraine, though, from the very, very start,
04:46
has been very consistent, hasn't it?
04:47
It's been obviously more weapons.
04:48
It's been air defences.
04:51
But now, of course, this further request,
04:53
the green light to use the weapons beyond Ukraine's borders.
04:58
How important is that, do you think, for what Zelensky wants to do next?
05:03
So the name of the game right now, Mark,
05:05
is keeping Ukraine intact through the winter.
05:07
The winter is going to be brutal.
05:09
It's going to be the third winter that Ukraine has been at war.
05:12
And the power grid is very, very vulnerable.
05:15
So Ukraine needs more air defence systems.
05:18
It's expected to get about seven Patriots or big air defence systems this fall,
05:23
which is good.
05:24
But it's not enough to protect the grid.
05:26
The grid is heavily damaged.
05:28
The UN has put out a report that says that there will be blackouts
05:31
between four to more than 10 hours every day
05:35
as those temperatures begin to decline.
05:37
And that has knock-on effects.
05:38
It has knock-on effects on the economy, for education.
05:41
There's 100,000 Ukrainian children that are doing online schooling.
05:45
And it's going to impede their access after many years of up and down education.
05:50
So that's something I'm worried about.
05:52
But Zelensky's got to keep the state alive.
05:54
He's got to keep unity together in his military.
05:58
And look, the pressure is on for him to make some kind of deal.
06:02
This is not going to go on forever and ever.
06:05
If Donald Trump is elected,
06:07
he's very worried that America is going to zero out assistance pretty quickly.
06:12
And he has to contend with that.
06:14
So he's here to shore up relations,
06:16
build relations with everyone he can,
06:18
and push Biden as much as he can over the next four months.
06:21
But he's really decided to play offense.
06:24
That's what he's doing here.
06:26
He's been pushed over and over again.
06:27
What is a theory of victory?
06:28
And the Ukrainians said it was a return to the 91 borders,
06:31
plus Crimea, plus the Russians would leave, justice would be established.
06:37
But now he's saying we've got to be able to seize territory.
06:42
We've got to be able to go to the negotiating table and get a deal.
06:46
The other thing that he says, Mark, that's important is justice is a non-negotiable.
06:50
He said that a couple of times in his interview.
06:52
So that's a point that I expect him to come back to as well.
06:55
Justice is non-negotiable.
06:57
Thank you, as always, for your insight.
06:59
We do appreciate it.
07:02
Thank you once again.
07:04
We will be watching all developments.
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