If Russia is allowed to retain Ukrainian territory, international rules no longer matter: analyst

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00:00Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky is gearing up to visit the White House Friday

00:03to ink a minerals deal with the US.

00:06The two sides appear to have patched up their differences following public pushback from

00:11Kyiv.

00:12The government is now saying it's given its agreement after Washington backed off on its

00:16controversial demand for Ukraine to hand over $500 billion worth of revenue from its mineral

00:22resources to the United States.

00:25Charlotte Lamb has more now on the terms of the deal.

00:29We're one step closer to potential agreement.

00:32US President Donald Trump says Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky will visit the White House Friday

00:37to sign a critical minerals deal.

00:39And we're going to be signing an agreement which will be a very big agreement and I want

00:43to thank Howard and Scott for the job you guys did in putting it together.

00:49Key details have not been made public, but Zelensky says he is still seeking security

00:53guarantees.

00:55This agreement could be part of the future security guarantees, but I want to make sure

01:00an agreement is an agreement.

01:02We need to understand the broader vision, what lies next for Ukraine, where we are in

01:06all of this.

01:08This deal is at the heart of Kyiv's attempt to gain support from the US.

01:13It would see Ukraine contribute half the future revenues from its natural resources to a fund,

01:18in which the US would own the maximum interest allowed by its own domestic law.

01:23Ukraine has 100 major deposits, including 20 out of the 50 minerals considered critical

01:28to the US economy, most of whose production is currently dominated by China.

01:34Among them, titanium, lithium, uranium and significant reserves of rare earth minerals.

01:41Many of those rare earth deposits, though, lie in territory already captured by Russia.

01:45Trump says he's not opposed to dealing with Moscow on future mineral deals.

01:50Outside the US embassy in Kyiv, activists are protesting the potential deal.

01:58These anti-Trump signs imply Trump is on Putin's side.

02:04It's not right to blackmail the country at war and force it to sign any deal that is

02:08not economically beneficial.

02:13Many say an agreement can only be signed once Russia's aggression stops.

02:19Let's speak more on this.

02:21Mark Timinsky, who is a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Centre,

02:26joins us now.

02:27Mark, it's great to have you.

02:29Thanks so much for joining us on the programme.

02:30We're still in the dark about the final details of this deal.

02:34We know that there's this joint fund that's going to be set up, but the deal doesn't,

02:38of course, include any security guarantees.

02:41Tell us in your view, do you think Kyiv is being short-changed here?

02:47Thank you again for having me.

02:48It's a pleasure to be back on France 24.

02:50That is something that a lot of Ukrainians back in Ukraine are very concerned about,

02:54where the United States says that it's very interested in the mineral deposits and reserves

02:59that the Ukrainians have, which has equated some news outlets to, say, tens of trillions

03:04of dollars worth of material and things that they can mine.

03:09But the Ukrainians don't see anything in return.

03:11Yes, the United States has claimed that the Ukrainians and the United States would work

03:15together to create some sort of reconstruction fund.

03:19But there's nothing there in the current deals that we know of where there are security guarantees

03:25or discussions about the United States continuing to provide defence equipment to the Ukrainians

03:30to ensure that they can protect themselves from an ongoing Russian attack.

03:34So currently, it is very odd why the Ukrainians would pursue such a deal with the United States.

03:40Well, the US has very much portrayed this as being, you know, a deal where it's going

03:44to make lots of money from, it's going to get a lot of resources through.

03:50But these minerals, getting them will be a hard and expensive process, won't they?

03:56Yes, certainly.

03:58First of all, a lot of the minerals and resources that are available are in the occupied territories

04:04that Russia illegally has control over in the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine.

04:09Second of all, a lot of this infrastructure does not yet exist and that will cost a lot

04:13of money to build what is required in order to refurbish equipment that they have and

04:18then start mining and pulling out these resources in the area.

04:22So it's very unclear how this deal would go forward.

04:25And you mentioned that, you know, that many of these mineral deposits are located in areas

04:31occupied by Russia.

04:33Tell us how you think that Washington and Kiev are going to navigate that.

04:38Russia has said that it's willing to give the US access to those mineral reserves in

04:44exchange for Washington dropping sanctions that it's put against Moscow.

04:51Tell us how you think Washington is going to navigate the sort of complication with

04:56Russia owning parts of Ukraine.

05:01Russia is trying to be very assertive in the statement, saying that this is territory

05:09that is not legally theirs, it's still part of Ukraine.

05:12And by coming up with some sort of agreement with the Russians for minerals in the Russian

05:16occupied areas of eastern Ukraine, that would effectively acknowledge Ukrainian territory

05:22as being seized by Russians and the Russians should not be rewarded for this horrible war

05:26that they began not only in 2022 with the full scale invasion.

05:30But the illegal annexation of Crimea in the spring of 2014, as well as the attacks that

05:36occurred in the Donbas shortly afterwards.

05:39The United States is working closely with Ukraine, as there have been reports recently

05:44that President Zelensky himself himself will be in the United States this coming Friday

05:49to discuss the deal further and come up with the final areas within the deal.

05:55And Zelensky said that he still wants some sort of other possibility to ensure that Ukraine

06:04would be protected from the Russians and the Ukrainians continue to their allies to work

06:11together because they should not be treating Russia as some sort of equal partner, as the

06:16Russians are capable of doing a lot of atrocities in these areas and they're responsible for

06:21the war.

06:22And the Russians should not be rewarded with some sort of financial agreement or making

06:27additional income from Ukrainian territory because they illegally took it over.

06:32Mark, we are having some connection issues, but we're going to try and push through with

06:36you.

06:37I wanted to ask you, do you feel that this sets a precedent?

06:41Do you think going forward, we're going to see, you know, not just Ukraine, but Europe

06:45and NATO likely to get less security guarantees from the US if it doesn't offer something

06:52in return like financial compensation?

06:55Do you think this is a trend we're likely to see going forward from the Trump administration?

07:02The Ukrainians are treading lightly as they understand that the Trump administration with

07:07Vice President Pence as well, and that the aid to Ukraine has been expensive.

07:13They want to repay American taxpayers for the amount of money that has been provided

07:18to the Ukrainians.

07:19It's very important to state that of the $175 billion that the United States has provided

07:25to Ukraine during the three year period, only $75 billion of that aid has been sent to Ukraine.

07:30A lot of those are weapons that the United States no longer uses.

07:33So of the $100 billion that is on paper, that's actually being used within the United States

07:38to help employ Americans and refurbish American stockpiles, helping with acquisition within

07:47the United States.

07:49The Ukrainians have also pushed that not only do they want security guarantees, but they

07:52also want to ensure that economic penalties and other forms of sanctions remain within

07:57Russia so that if sanctioned immediately, it would not allow Russia to continue attacking

08:06and that would be another type of buffer to put on the Russians at this time.

08:10And more widely, I think-

08:11The European Union is also exploring ways-

08:14Please go on, please go on.

08:15Sorry?

08:16Please go on.

08:17The European Union is also exploring how they can use Russian seized assets because

08:22they're concerned that the United States is starting to pull away its support for Ukraine.

08:27Of course, no one is certain how things will unfold after this deal is signed, but they're

08:31looking for other contingency plans in case the United States starts to slowly tread away

08:35from the European continent.

08:37And just one last question for you.

08:39I think it can be argued that we're slowly seeing this shift away from an international

08:45rules-based order.

08:47We're seeing Washington moving away from this moral stand against Russia.

08:54It's doing that in favor of more transactional diplomacy, I think it can be argued.

09:00Tell us what sort of impact you feel that this sort of shift is going to have now.

09:05It puts a lot of questions into alliances that currently exist where it's based through

09:11diplomacy and international norms and doing the moral right thing.

09:16And now it seems that in some capacity there are trade agreements where someone is becoming

09:22a client state and no longer being held on a certain level of relations with these countries.

09:30And also we're seeing a shift in how the United Nations resolution recently voted against

09:35the ongoing Russian aggression and trying to determine how to maintain this international

09:41world order.

09:42Because if the Russians are allowed to maintain the territory that they have in Ukraine, then

09:47at that point international norms and rules no longer matter because then authoritarians

09:52can do whatever they want to without consequence.

09:54Mark, it was great to get your insight.

09:57Thanks so much for joining us on the program.

09:58We did have those connection issues, but we pushed through and got to the end of that

10:03interview.

10:04Thank you so much for joining us.

10:05Thank you again for having me.

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