Trump "is very interested in doing business with Russia": analyst

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00:00To bring in our next guest, Michael Benhamou is director of OpiWire, which is Europe's

00:04war institute.

00:05Michael, thanks for being with us.

00:06I know you came to talk about another issue, but can I ask you about your feelings about

00:10what Trump has said, because saying things like that Zelensky's rating is at 4%, he's

00:15a dictator because there's no elections in Ukraine and martial law has been imposed,

00:19but of course that happens in the state of war, and obviously blaming Ukraine for starting

00:23the war when that is total nonsense.

00:25What do you think about Trump's words?

00:27He's just trying to destabilize the situation, and he's successfully destabilizing the situation.

00:31This is a psychological shock for Europe and for Ukraine.

00:35It's of course false.

00:36Zelensky is not at 4%, he's closer to 50, 60%.

00:41As for the budget figures that he's giving, they are also very inaccurate.

00:45Basically Americans have spent $40 billion per year on average in Ukraine, which is 120

00:51approximately.

00:52Same for Europe, it's 120, 130 for Europe, which is a bit less than what Americans spent

00:59in Afghanistan during the last two years.

01:01They spent $50 billion for Afghanistan 2019.

01:04The danger here though, that Trump is starting to sound like he's Vladimir Putin's puppet,

01:10isn't he?

01:11Like, you know, strings are being pulled by Putin and Trump's just saying what Putin wants

01:14him to say.

01:15It just seems that way.

01:16I think there is an intent behind, which is business intent.

01:18I think he's very interested in making business with Russia more than with Ukraine, frankly.

01:23I don't see American companies investing in Ukraine, which is destabilized, whose security

01:27is not guaranteed.

01:29I think the long-term view of Trump, if there is one, and I believe there is one, is to

01:35open the Russian markets to American companies.

01:38America is very much becoming an opportunistic country, like you see in the rest of the world

01:43with the Global South, for example, doing multi-alignments.

01:47For example, India, Indonesia, Brazil.

01:50I think America is very much in that path of being very opportunistic.

01:55So the discussion between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia, are we reading from what

02:00you're saying there, that that's been more about lining up commercial possibilities rather

02:05than trying to seek a solution for Ukraine?

02:07No, Ukraine is not really important for this American administration.

02:11They're all about...

02:12It's a terrible thing to say, isn't it?

02:13America's economy is not doing well.

02:16The global economy is stagnating at the moment, and it has been stagnating for many, many

02:20decades now.

02:22And so America is, like many, many countries, is trying to stay afloat and stay in the game.

02:29And the way for them to stay in the game, according to Trump, is by being brutal, by

02:34being aggressive, and by forgetting past alliances, because alliances is very constraining.

02:41Alliances, they limit your maneuver.

02:44And so for the first time, America is publicly saying, we are doing something else, which

02:51is being on our own and doing anything we want to do.

02:55You're saying that Trump's words, the sensationalization of what he is saying, you're saying his words

03:00are about trying to somehow deflect from the fact that things aren't working out the way

03:04he wants it to be.

03:05His ratings are down 3% already, down to 44%.

03:09That's by reporting from Reuters, a trustworthy source, Reuters.

03:13I think, unfortunately, I mean, it's not just Trump.

03:16There's a trend in America's foreign policy.

03:19Look at AUKUS, for example, the submarine deal that the Americans have snatched from

03:24the French, $65 billion worth of submarine contract.

03:28Look at also, for example, the South Stream destruction, which is probably an American

03:34action.

03:35Look at also the fiscal tension between the US and Europe for the past decades.

03:42I know that many people are still in denial, especially in the centre of Europe and in

03:47the east of Europe.

03:48But yes, America is diverging from Europe.

03:51It's not just this man.

03:54It's a system which is diverging from here, from Europe.

04:01So if you were in Vladimir Zelensky's shoes this evening, what would you be thinking?

04:06Because clearly, you can see when he makes his comment regarding what Trump said, he's

04:10really biting his tongue.

04:12Trying to be as diplomatic as he can, but to come out and say he thinks Trump is living

04:17in a Russian misinformation bubble, it's possibly the biggest insult he could throw at Trump,

04:23isn't it?

04:24I would do what he's doing.

04:25You know, I think it's pretty good.

04:26Over the past few days, I would push the Europeans to be stronger, push them to more European

04:32military cooperation, perhaps a NATO that would become European to a larger extent.

04:38This is what OPY, my think tank, has been pushing for at least a year now on this set.

04:45And it's becoming a reality de facto, because Americans are pulling out and the Europeans

04:49are now filling this organisation with troops and with officers.

04:54So I think he's doing a good job as saying to the Europeans, you know, we have to do

05:00this ourselves now.

05:01The problem is, we have the money, but the factories are in America, to sum it up in

05:08a few words, you know, we could basically cover for the $40 billion annual budget.

05:16There's not enough manufacturing capacity here.

05:18Again, America is spending $40 billion per year.

05:21So we could do it.

05:22You know, we could, politicians could tell citizens, taxpayers, there is a problem.

05:27We have to solve it.

05:28But the problem is, the factories, 80% of them approximately, are in America.

05:34And Trump is not going to accept foreign military sales while signing a peace deal

05:41with Russia.

05:43So we have an issue of military capacities.

05:46They have been ramped up over the past few years.

05:49We can do more, but not enough.

05:51Michael, we need to leave it there.

05:53There's so much more to be said, but sadly, time against us.

05:56Michael O'Bannon, Director of OPY, which is Europe's War Institute, thanks for coming

05:59in and sharing your views with us here on France 24.

06:02The analysis is always invaluable in this story.

06:05And Michael, thank you for coming in.

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