"We should not overestimate the drama of the change" in Ukraine's government reshuffle, analyst says

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00:00Well, let's get more analysis on this and cross over to Anastasia Shaposhkina.

00:04She's the president of the think tank Eastern Circles and a lecturer of geopolitics at Sciences

00:09Po University here in Paris.

00:11It's great to see you Anastasia.

00:13Thank you so much for joining us on the programme.

00:15I want to first of all ask you about the timing of all of this.

00:18Zelensky says that the changes are needed before autumn, but his critics say that the

00:24Ukrainian leader is actually trying to consolidate his power.

00:27What do you think?

00:29The reshuffling of the government has been expected for several months now.

00:35And the most emblematic figures, such as Dmytro Kuleba, their replacement or potential resignation

00:43is something that's been discussed for a very long time.

00:46And what I think is that this first is a continuity that we've seen already starting, I would

00:54say, last fall with the exit of the commander, Zelensky, of the armed forces and also the

01:02change of the minister of defence, followed by several important ministerial changes and

01:10including in the reconstruction area this summer and also the dismissal of the agriculture

01:16minister.

01:17And now we see this next kind of stage of this row of changes in the ministries.

01:27I want to say that, of course, it looks on the one hand, it sends questions about the

01:34timing since now Ukraine is trying to counterattack and is holding territory inside Russia, which

01:42is a truly changing situation on the ground.

01:45And also, it's a very important moment, of course, before the presidential elections

01:51in the US.

01:52Is it the best moment?

01:53I said this is not something which is a surprise.

01:56And second, we don't necessarily, we're not going to see the figures who have been who

02:00have resigned disappear from the political landscape in Ukraine.

02:04Some of them are going to be promoted and are expected to be promoted.

02:09And some of them are expected to just change seats.

02:11For example, some of the people who in this in the list of ministers and also vice ministers,

02:19for example, responsible for European integration, are expected to take some of the ministerial

02:23positions.

02:24Right.

02:25And then some of the people from the presidential office, like Asteslav Shurma, for example,

02:30are expected also to land maybe in ministerial positions.

02:33So we should not overestimate the drama, the drama of the change.

02:38And see first, they promised that tomorrow, on the 5th of September, the new, the people

02:45are going to be named who are going to replace the ministers who have resigned.

02:49We have to see first who they are.

02:51For Kuleba, we already know the name.

02:53It's going to be Sibyka, who is a very established Ukrainian diplomat, former ambassador to Turkey,

03:00and somebody who is spent, who spent his whole life in the diplomatic corps.

03:04So we're not seeing somebody who is absolutely a novice to this task, neither who is dependent

03:10on Zelensky for his diplomatic career, which has started way before probably Zelensky finished

03:17university.

03:18And then also somebody who passed by the presidential administration, who is coming from the presidential

03:24administration to this position, so is therefore enjoying the support of the president.

03:29For the minister of strategic industries, of course, very key, because it's been charged

03:33with the renewal of the production, of military production.

03:39We don't expect the minister of commission to disappear from the political landscape

03:43of Ukraine either.

03:44And most likely tomorrow or in the coming days, we're going to hear of his new position,

03:50which is not necessarily going to be worse than the previous one.

03:55Well, Anastasia, before we talk about, you know, who will be replacing some of the ministers

04:00that resigned today, I really want to focus on Kuleba just for a minute, because, you

04:05know, he has been known for, you know, being able to relate to others, being able to speak

04:11fluently in English with other ministers from around the world.

04:17The head of the foreign relations committee in the Ukrainian parliament said he was one

04:21of the best foreign affairs ministers in Ukrainian history.

04:25Give us your assessment of that.

04:28I think that indeed Kuleba, Dmytro Kuleba, is not only the most prominent diplomat in

04:35the 33 years history of Ukraine's independence, but also one of the most prominent figures

04:41in world diplomacy today, considering how the accomplishments that were made in the

04:49last three years solely by the diplomatic corps of Ukraine.

04:55And indeed, all of the laudations are absolutely merited and deserved.

05:01It's a big loss for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

05:05But I want us not to put the cart before the horse and to wait for tomorrow to see where

05:11Kuleba is going to end up, because I don't think that he'll be sent to retirement.

05:16So far what we've heard the president say or the other sources say is that possibly

05:21he's going to be put in a position where he'll be in charge of reinforcing the relationship

05:25between Ukraine and NATO, which is also a very important position.

05:29Hopefully that's going to be the case, or some other position.

05:32Hopefully he's not just going to be sent fishing.

05:35And in this case, if this is the case, we can only expect his diplomatic skill to keep

05:40serving the country, just in another quality.

05:46And of course, Kuleba was really known for pushing allies on those red lines, on letting

05:51Ukraine use those foreign supplied weapons to strike inside Ukrainian territory.

05:59Can Kuleba's replacement, you know, pick up from where he left off?

06:05I think that the supplies, first of all, the Kuleba's replacement, as I said, is a very

06:11experienced Ukrainian diplomat, Sobhiega.

06:16He has been in the office of the president for most of this year.

06:22And as such, he's been following everything that's been going on, because all of the key

06:28decisions, including on negotiations, are stemming from the office of the president

06:34often.

06:35And also the briefing of the office is rather regular and serious.

06:40So I don't think Sobhiega is coming to the position not knowing where the negotiations

06:44are, not being a novice to any type of negotiations, and also ready definitely to take them from

06:50there.

06:51He's also, I want to stress it, really somebody who spent his career in diplomacy.

06:56So not a novice to how this organism functions, right, the MFA.

07:01Now, the negotiations on the long range are either allowing Ukraine to strike further

07:09with Western weapons into Russian territory, which is absolutely crucial for the further

07:13advancement of the military, of the military progress.

07:17But also, negotiations on further weapons supplies is something also that's led along

07:23several frontiers, so to say.

07:25And not only by MFA, MFA plays a crucial role, but it's not the only one.

07:30And I think that that also is something we have to keep in mind.

07:32Anastasia, thank you so much for joining us on the program.

07:35We really appreciate your insight there.

07:38That's Anastasia Proshkina, who's the president of the Think Tank Eastern Circles and a lecturer

07:43of geopolitics at Sciences Po University here in Paris.

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