BetQL Boost of the Day: Insights on today's MLB games

BetMGM Network

BetQL betting experts weigh in on where you should place your money on the upcoming MLB games

Transcript

00:00Welcome to the BetQL Daily Boost.

00:06I'm Lucy Burge of BetQL, and I am joined by Matt Horner, and we have a Nerfy Odds Boost

00:12for all of you today on a Nerfy to occur in Rocky's Diamondbacks, Pirate's Padres, and

00:18Brave's Giants boosted to plus 550 at Caesars.

00:22Matt, what do you think of this boost?

00:24Yeah, I don't mind it.

00:25If you just want to put a little sprinkle down on it.

00:28Rockies right now have just been not hitting.

00:31It's been awful.

00:32I do the Nerfy article for us every single day, and let me just tell you, it's been a

00:35struggle over the past three weeks.

00:37There's been so many Yerfies, but you're getting plus 550 here to put all these together, so

00:42maybe just a little something on it.

00:44Rocky's Diamondbacks, the Rockies are terrible offensively.

00:46They're a disaster, especially on the road.

00:48The Diamondbacks, obviously a little worrisome.

00:51Their offense has been really hot lately, but could happen.

00:54Pirate's Braves, or Pirate's Padres, I should say.

00:57Pirate's also terrible offensively.

01:00The Padres, great offensively.

01:01So again, 50-50 shot.

01:04Then the Braves and the Giants, I like this one.

01:06I think you should be more concerned about Charlie Morton going for the Braves, honestly,

01:10tonight, than you would with Kyle Harrison going for the Giants, which I'll talk about

01:14in a minute.

01:15But yeah, plus 550, just a little bit.

01:18I don't mind it.

01:19Very nice.

01:20The betql.com Nerfy article, check that out every day, and get in on this odds boost,

01:25plus 550 at Caesars.

01:26Right here.

01:27Yes, exactly.

01:28See?

01:29Exactly.

01:30There's this cool thing, the Yerfies, that we are due for a stretch of Nerfy run.

01:34Right.

01:35That's why you check it out every day, to see if the heater begins, which today could

01:39begin with.

01:40Let's go.

01:41Yes.

01:42Let's absolutely go.

01:43Nerfy article and the boost, plus 550 at Caesars, and take advantage of our offer from BetMGM.

01:49Bet $10, get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet does not hit, by entering

01:55code LUCY when you sign up for a new BetMGM account now, and head to betql.com.

02:01Check out our exclusive sports book offers there as well.

02:04And of course, follow us on Twitter, at sharp underscore, side underscore, and at LUCYLBURG.

02:10Our favorite bets for today, I'm going with Jackson Holliday, to have over one and a half

02:16hits runs RBI against the Nationals.

02:19This is plus 105 at BetMGM.

02:22He has hit this in five of his last seven games, with five hits, six runs, six RBI,

02:27and four home runs in his last seven games.

02:29He has been very hot right now.

02:31He will be facing Jack Irvin, starting for the Nationals, who gave up eight hits and

02:35five runs in his last start.

02:37So I think this is a good spot for Holliday to just go over one and a half hits runs RBI.

02:41He's been really hot lately.

02:42So I think he can continue that tonight.

02:45Yeah.

02:46Don't mind that at all.

02:47We're on a long stretch of winning here on the Lockstar.

02:50We'll have one six straight.

02:52Yesterday, we hit that plus 214 parlay with the Twins in the over there.

02:57Oh, yay!

02:58Very nice.

02:59That has been killing it lately.

03:01So let's see if we can make it seven straight.

03:03It's going to be tough, but we'll see here.

03:05I'm going to go with the Giants tonight.

03:07San Francisco at minus 103 over at Vanduul against the Braves.

03:11I was just talking about this as part of the nerfy there.

03:14Charlie Morton is starting for the Braves.

03:17His month of July was horrendous.

03:206.21 ERA and 11 homers allowed in 29 innings.

03:24He got absolutely shelled, barreled, 10.1 percent barrel rate.

03:29He was getting destroyed.

03:30He's 40 years old at this point.

03:32I think fatigue, the amount of innings he's pitched, is starting to set in on him.

03:36He's an older guy at this point.

03:38He's just not having it this late into the season.

03:41And yeah, I think the Giants can get to him a little bit.

03:44They're not as great against righties.

03:4695 WRC plus for the 116 against lefties.

03:49I think they could put a number on him.

03:51On the other side, it's interesting.

03:52Kyle Harrison, he's usually a below average arm.

03:55He has a 472 expected ERA and a 428 expected FIF overall, so he's not great.

04:01But if you look at his home and road splits, that's the difference.

04:05When he pitches at home, 323 ERA with a 384 expected FIF.

04:10On the road, that flies up.

04:12494 ERA and a 506 X-FIF.

04:16And his home run rate is ridiculously crazy as well.

04:190.65 at home compared to 2.15 home runs through nine on the road.

04:24It's crazy.

04:25And it's because he's a fly ball pitcher.

04:2762% fly ball rate for Kyle Harrison in his career.

04:31When he pitches at home, he's pitching at Oracle Park.

04:33As we know, one of the best ballparks in baseball for pitchers

04:38limits home runs a lot at Oracle Park, only a 79 park factor.

04:42So he gets helped out a lot when he pitches at home

04:44because of how many fly balls he pitches.

04:46So I expect him to be better here going up against a Braves

04:49offense that has just been slumping.

04:51They're just kind of falling out of it at this point right now.

04:54So I think Harrison could be more aggressive here, have a better game.

04:57Morton is declining.

04:58He's going in the opposite direction at this point.

05:01So I like the value on the Giants here.

05:02Minus 103 over at Fandor.

05:04So give me the Giants as my lock of the day and my bet hero on the podcast.

05:08Very nice.

05:09Also check out the lock of the day article at betql.com.

05:11You can find it all there and here.

05:14So we have everything that you could also need on the Daily Boost right here.

05:17So get it on the Zod's Boost plus 550 at Caesars and subscribe to the Daily Boost

05:22wherever you get your podcast.

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