'If the Maduro regime continues, we'll see another exodus of Venezuelans moving out of the country'

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00:00Let's move on to Venezuela now and tension and anticipation has greeted the country this Sunday as it heads to the polls in one of the

00:07Crucial presidential elections in modern history

00:10The results of the vote could lead to a seismic shift in politics with retired diplomat Edmundo González

00:16Or it could extend by six years the same policies that have caused the world's worst

00:21peacetime economic collapse with current president Nicolas Maduro

00:25Let's a take a listen to what he's had to say though

00:31So in Nicolás, I am Nicolas Maduro Mars

00:35President of the people and I recognize and will recognize the electoral referee the official bulletins

00:42And I will ensure that they are respected

00:45Look, we'll let you know if I call on the ten presidential candidates

00:4938 political parties

00:52To make them

00:54Declare publicly that they will respect the official bulletin of the body

01:05Well joining me now to discuss the vote is a doctor I'm a lendu Mishra

01:10She's a professor of international politics at the University of Lancaster doctor. Thank you so much for joining us here on France 24

01:18This is a build as a huge

01:21Election in terms of what's at stake with Nicolas Maduro possibly extending his term

01:27And then on the other side, you've got Edmundo González just what?

01:32Have Venezuelans been saying what they are anticipating and is there a chance of change or is it more of the same?

01:41Well, good evening. First of all

01:43This is going to be a seismic change as you have said the indications are that

01:48The opposition has got a massive lead

01:51But it all depends on how the current president Nicolas Maduro responds to the outcome if he decides to

01:59Not recognize the outcome then obviously there is going to be a kind of civil war like situation in the country

02:04We have already seen more than eight million

02:07Venezuelans leave the country that is almost one part of the population and

02:12If there is another six years of continuation of Maduro which cannot be possibly the opinion polls have to be believed

02:19Then that is not going to happen

02:21but given that the stranglehold that

02:24Nicolas Maduro has on the country's politics

02:27So it is definitely going to undermine the people's faith in the system and a little earlier

02:34I was talking to two Venezuelans who go by the name of Manuel Amante and Teresa Romero

02:40Who were kind of fled the country Venezuela in fact and their voice was that we have to have a change

02:47Because we can't let this continue for anymore. So this is what the

02:53Venezuelans living outside Venezuela are talking about

02:57So definitely there has to be change

02:59But if it is going to be more of the same then there is definitely going to be a massive

03:04Unrest in the country in what form we don't know it as yet

03:08Well, Nicolas Maduro has said that this is the most transparent election in the world

03:15How do you respond to that?

03:17Well, I mean this is a kind of joke

03:19I mean, how can it be transparent when you sort of barred the main opposition leader? Let's remember that the current

03:27running mate of Nicolas Maduro is the third choice because sort of given that Maduro has got

03:33Such control over judiciary he managed to dismiss the other two front-runners Maria Masato in particular

03:39Sort of making her kind of candidates null and void for the next 15 years

03:44And let's not remember Maduro remained in power because the last time around in

03:512018 there was a boycott of the election by the

03:55opposition so it has never been

03:57Transparent it has never been fair and that has been the verdict of

04:03Organization of American states in the past

04:05So no one is going to buy the argument that this is going to be transparent and fair this time around and when we have

04:11the more opinion polls suggesting that

04:13Edmundo Gonzalez has got to 59 percent of the votes there and Maduro has got 12.9 percent. So

04:19Nobody is going to buy even the Venezuelans living abroad and within the country

04:24Then what can I mean if we could talk about a hypothetical situation here where?

04:30The votes don't translate to what the polls do say and

04:35There there might be some kind of a problem. What can the community around of Venezuela do specifically in Latin America?

04:44Well, obviously we have kind of descent already coming from several neighboring countries and notably

04:53Ignacio Lula in Brazil the current Brazilian president who has said that who sort of says the same kind of left-leaning

05:00ideology with Maduro and he has gone on record to suggest that it's the

05:04Responsibility of the current government to make sure that the election process is fair and transparent

05:10But the bigger challenge is that Venezuelans are those who have been left in the country

05:14I'm not going to bind to any of the rhetoric that Maduro is trying to

05:18highlight because the social

05:21Programs that he had introduced are not kind of delivering to the masses. So his base has reduced

05:28considerably and

05:30Satisfied because there has been a massive

05:34Downturn in terms of its export of the crude the fall in the prices of that

05:39So Nicholas Maduro, although if he can manipulate if he holds on to power

05:44He simply won't have the economic resources to deliver to his key

05:49Constituency who have supported him so far

05:51So it is a kind of a tough call for him and he might just bow down and let

05:57Venezuelans

05:59sort of go for

06:01Gonzalo and

06:03Then Gonzalo Sarri and then we might have reduction of sanctions

06:07Especially from the United States who would like to see a kind of change of guard so to speak. Well, dr

06:14Misra, let's talk about where the country is standing economically right now. They're being led by a former bus driver

06:20and his economic policy is finally if you could say the chickens are coming home to roost in the terms of the fact that

06:27Maybe we are seeing that shift

06:30What is the current situation of Venezuela in a nutshell?

06:35well, let's say Venezuela is currently experiencing almost 1,000 percent of inflation and

06:41Minimum wage is 135 US dollars and to just to break even I was talking to as I said these two Venezuelans

06:48Manuel Amante and

06:50Teresa Romero and they were saying that

06:53their families can't even get the minimum wage of

06:57$135 let alone

06:59$500 that is required to just break even so the situation is there on the ground those who have been left behind and if

07:07The Maduro regime continues then we'll see another exodus of

07:11Venezuelans moving out of the country and there are no food on the shelves

07:16And as I said, I have been talking to the Venezuelan expatriate community in Mexico and elsewhere and this is their opinion

07:23So it is the economy is ruined

07:25The lifestyle is ruined for almost the majority of the Venezuelans only ones who have been somehow

07:33Continuing with the similar lifestyle is army the civil servants and others

07:37But if you don't have a change of guard that particular constituency also will face the dire economic

07:44Situation that others are facing. I think

07:47Maduro regime would realize it sooner than later and let the opposition

07:53Win in a clear fair and transparent manner. That's my belief. Let's see if those beliefs do come true. Dr

08:00Malinda Mishra, thank you so much for giving us your thoughts from the Lancaster University in the UK

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