'Uncertainty not good: France likely to see continuation of uncertainty in lead-up to  2027 election - video Dailymotion

FRANCE 24 English

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00Well, for more, let's bring in Joseph Downing in London. He's a senior lecturer in politics

00:04and international relations at Aston University. Thanks so much for speaking to us. France is

00:10a country with little taste for political compromise and collaboration. Bearing this

00:16in mind, who, in your opinion, will be France's next prime minister? I mean,

00:19what's the most likely scenario here? It's really, really difficult to tell,

00:25so in typical terms, given the election outcome, we would probably see in other countries where the

00:37political system is not quite so polarised, we'd probably see Mélenchon as the leader of that

00:42bloc, be in pole position to become the second in charge of France. However, I'm not quite sure if

00:48that can happen. Why? Well, because I think he's too far to the left and he's made too many

00:53statements, controversial statements around things like the war in Gaza, around changing

00:59completely the economic outlook of France, for Macron or for people elsewhere in the coalition

01:07to be comfortable with him in that role, which leaves the field really quite wide open. The

01:11problem that the left bloc has is they can unite around a single issue, which is to keep the

01:16national rally out of power, but they don't really agree on very much else. You've got a very loose

01:22grouping there of centre left, hardcore, the inheritors of France's communist party that

01:30want the nationalisation of industries and all kinds of things like that. And then you've got

01:34other kind of more ecological left type of groups. So the field really, really is quite open. And

01:39it's really going to be interesting to see how the compromises that have to be struck are struck

01:44over the next couple of days. So you talk about the left, but I just want to delve into it a bit

01:49further because the left coalition, the NFP has managed to join forces in record time, but it's

01:54now obviously still scrambling to put forward a leader to represent them. It claims it will offer

01:59one of their candidates for the position of prime minister. But can this strategy

02:03succeed, especially as you mentioned, amid all the internal rivalry and disagreement present?

02:09I mean, it can technically on paper, but whether it does or not,

02:13it's quite difficult to say. The real problem here is what happens if it doesn't succeed. Now,

02:18the stakes are really high, right? Because the last thing that France needs or wants

02:23is to go into another election cycle. And that's one of the kind of key issues here is that actually

02:29on both sides, compromise may be necessitated by the seriousness really of the political

02:35crisis that France faces. The far right national rally finished in third place,

02:40despite many predicting it would come out on top. What's the future for the party? Where do they go

02:46from here? Well, I mean, that actually suits them, to be honest with you, right? Because their

02:50entire legitimacy and their entire strategy has been successful because they've not held power

02:57in any significant way. Yes, they have at the local level, but they haven't governed nationally.

03:01So they haven't been tarnished with the allegations of corruption and incompetence that the centre

03:05left and the centre right, nor the sort of allegations of Macron being a president for

03:10the rich that the centre has faced. So to be honest, it actually suits them quite well.

03:14Where does the party go from here? I would say continuing down the road of mainstreamisation

03:20of the party. So pulling it away from its kind of fascist origins continually. And we're also

03:26likely to see an increased role for Jordan Bendata-Bardala, who in fact is a fresh face,

03:31who's not tarnished by being part of the Le Pen dynasty that's dominated this party since

03:37its inception. And who genuinely does come from a poor suburb of Paris, right?

03:44When he speaks about people being marginalised, when he speaks about poverty, when he speaks

03:47about these issues in France, he genuinely has experienced it. And I think we're going to see

03:51a shift with the party more towards him, which I think for the long term is quite worrying because

03:56I think he's much more likely to be elected. A, I don't think France is ready to elect a female

04:01president. And B, he's not tarnished by connections to the Le Pen dynasty and the fascism that that

04:10often came with early on in the international front years.

04:14And what should we make of Emmanuel Macron's open letter to the French people? He's now

04:19obviously viewed as much weakened following that snap election gamble.

04:23What could be next for his Together movement?

04:26Well, that's the other problem here, right, is what is Macron going to do to really ensure that

04:31there's a legacy for his movement? At the moment, it's way too tied up with him, right? And it's

04:37personalised around him. He's made efforts to bring in Attal to be a sort of future face of

04:43that movement. But so far, that's been pretty unsuccessful. Attal's quite unpopular. He doesn't

04:47have the same sort of, you know, blue collar credentials that Bardala has, although he's

04:53another young man and a fresh face on the French political scene. And again, so that is another

04:58aspect of uncertainty and really the key take home message I would say here about the future

05:02of French politics is about uncertainty. And the problem is, you know, uncertainty is not good. And

05:08we can see that with, you know, the panic of the bond markets and the financial markets around

05:13the possibility of a far right win. And I think what we're likely to see is just a continuation of

05:19uncertainty really, in France as we lead into the next presidential election cycle,

05:23which is only a few years away.

05:26Right. Joseph Downing from Aston University,

05:28thank you so much for your very interesting analysis and for your time.

05:32Thank you.

'Uncertainty not good: France likely to see continuation of uncertainty in lead-up to 2027 election

Category

Transcript

Recommended