METOFFICE_10DAY_270324

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 27/03/2024.   Finally a drier and bright day or two during the long weekend. However, it's unlikely to last... Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.

Transcript

00:00 Hello, welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. A look at the long weekend for the Easter

00:06 break and beyond into the first week of April. What a surprise for you and that is that it's

00:12 not going to be a complete washout this Easter weekend. There will be some warm sunshine,

00:18 albeit not throughout the entire four days. Of course, we are looking at some unsettled

00:23 weather as well and certainly in the lead up to Easter, the jet stream is sitting to

00:28 the south of the U.K. That generally means it's cool and it's unsettled across the U.K.

00:34 and you can see how that reflects in the pressure pattern. Low pressure to the west or southwest

00:40 as we go into Wednesday night and that low is bringing some colder weather in from the

00:45 west and southwest and as that cold weather sits in place, it's going to mix with a band

00:52 of rain that's moving up from the continent, this occluded front which will bring a spell

00:57 of wet weather overnight into the start of Thursday. This is 2 a.m. on Thursday and you

01:01 can see that spell of rain across southern and central parts. Some heavy rain in places

01:07 could cause some issues that wet weather first thing, but also as it mixes with the colder

01:11 air, you could see some sleet and wet snow in a few spots, most likely over higher parts

01:16 of Wales and then later into the Midlands and Northern England before quite quickly

01:21 it warms up. So, there are two issues perhaps with snow, but mostly this is wet snow falling

01:27 over higher parts of Wales and it very quickly disappears through the morning as milder air

01:31 returns from the southwest. But that milder air from the southwest is going to be accompanied

01:38 by some very unsettled conditions. Low pressure close to the southwest as you can see, driving

01:43 spells of rain and showers. These showers across Wales and the southwest, very lively,

01:47 hail and thunder of possibility and accompanied by an increasingly strong wind, that wind

01:53 reaching gusts of 50 to 60 perhaps more miles per hour along the south coast, could cause

01:58 some issues through Thursday, so a yellow wind warning in force. And the rain also could

02:03 cause some issues across Northern Ireland, compounding the issues of course with the

02:08 rain that we saw throughout the last few days and further back of course some very saturated

02:14 conditions there for eastern parts of Northern Ireland, in particular the Antrim Hills where

02:18 another 30mm of rain through Thursday could cause localised flooding. So, an unsettled

02:23 afternoon for many places, but it is going to be turning milder through the day, 11 to

02:27 12 Celsius in the south, still on the chilly side there across the north and the east of

02:31 Scotland, albeit with less rain compared with the further south across the country. There

02:37 will be some spells of wet weather later on Thursday into the east and the north of Scotland

02:41 as the low pressure responsible moves into the North Sea. Further showers follow into

02:45 the south as well, but a gap there perhaps across central parts as we begin Friday, some

02:51 early sunshine with a fresh feel. The cloud quickly builds through the day and by the

02:57 afternoon on Good Friday, well it's looking like a fairly bright picture out there, but

03:01 there will be a number of showers still remaining. It's really a day of sunny spells and showers.

03:07 The showers where they do occur will rattle through quickly on the wind, but they'll be

03:11 lively where they occur with the chance of some thunder and also the chance of some gusty

03:17 winds. Temperatures of 13 or 14 Celsius in the south will feel a bit warmer compared

03:21 with Wednesday and Thursday further north, likewise a little bit milder, 9 or 10 degrees.

03:28 And then by the time we get to Saturday, well, here's the slightly drier weather that I mentioned

03:34 at the start of the forecast. Still some showers around, particularly towards the west, but

03:38 towards the east, actually some places will escape with a dry day on Saturday, some decent

03:43 sunny spells and where we see that sunshine and with lighter winds, it will feel quite

03:48 pleasant I suspect, the sun gaining strength at this time of year. This is the temperature

03:53 difference by Saturday compared with the time of recording, Wednesday the 27th March. And

03:58 as you can see, a large part of the map is warmer on Saturday compared with Wednesday,

04:04 significantly warmer in places, for example, more than 6 degrees warmer the far north of

04:08 Scotland and for some of these central and eastern parts of England. So, a temperature

04:14 trend that is upward slanting as we go into the weekend and also some sunny spells to

04:22 be enjoyed, especially later Saturday and into the first part of Easter Day. But later

04:28 on Easter Day, there is a little system that's emerging on the continent that could just

04:33 etch a spell of rain into the east of England and track across the country. I say could

04:38 because there's a lot of uncertainty about this developing system. It's to do with how

04:43 the jet stream is shaped across the continent and temperature differences that result in

04:49 this formation of this low pressure, for example. But there are significant differences in the

04:56 various computer models. So, the Met Office model has that spell of rain in the east of

05:02 England whilst other models don't have it at all. For example, the European model has

05:07 showery rain focused towards the west and the American model has a bit of rain towards

05:12 the southeast, but mostly the wetter weather is towards the west and southwest on Easter

05:18 Day. So, still a lot of uncertainty. At the moment, we slightly favour what's going on

05:24 in this middle panel here with showery rain more likely towards the west. Either way,

05:29 Easter Day is likely to start dry, but through the day there's this increased chance of some

05:36 rain or showers developing. And the trend is for it to turn increasingly unsettled by

05:42 the time we get to Easter Monday. We've still got the jet stream to the south. We've still

05:46 got areas of low pressure here and there and those areas of low pressure are likely to

05:51 drift close to the UK at times for the start of next week to bring further spells of rain.

05:56 Meanwhile, the jet stream starts off very amplified across the Atlantic, but this branch

06:03 of the jet stream cuts off into its own circulation which allows another branch of the jet stream

06:08 to whiz across the Atlantic, pick up areas of low pressure and send them on a south shifted

06:13 track towards the UK. So, for the start of next week, increasingly unsettled as the jet

06:18 stream sends further lows in towards the country with spells of rain most likely towards the

06:23 south and the east, drier towards the north although an increasing easterly wind for Scotland,

06:29 perhaps turning cloudy with some showers in the east. This is how things are looking for

06:33 Tuesday and into Wednesday then. We've got that south shifted jet stream. We've got the

06:37 low pressure systems moving in from the west and southwest. The wettest weather once again

06:42 towards the south and the west, drier towards the north and the northeast, but it's possible

06:49 that many areas will see rain and showers throughout next week. That trend towards areas

06:55 of low pressure returning from the Atlantic on a south shifted jet stream is reflected

06:59 by this bar chart which shows this increased chance through the first week of April of

07:06 this colour. This colour represents a weather pattern which is associated with south shifted

07:12 low pressure and that generally looks like this. So, this is the most likely weather

07:18 pattern for later next week. Low pressure to the west or southwest of the country, spells

07:23 of rain or showers moving in from the southwest, temperatures not far from average although

07:28 the possibility of some colder conditions at times in the far north and the driest spells

07:36 most likely towards the north, the wettest weather most likely towards the south. If

07:41 you think you've heard all of that before, it's because it's the same kind of weather

07:44 pattern we've seen so much of during recent weeks and months. Hopefully, it will change

07:48 at some point in April, but for now, staying unsettled.

07:51 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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