Super Bowl LVIII: Betting Trends, Chiefs' Performance Analysis

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00:00 We had a complete line flip last year for Super Bowl 57.

00:06 Right move, Phil.

00:07 Right move.

00:08 Don't worry about losing that game, this is the right move.

00:11 Do we hang the banner still?

00:12 I think you should.

00:13 CLV banner?

00:14 I mean, that's for sure.

00:15 Yeah, we can find the trash cans out here now, I think.

00:18 We can take a photo with them.

00:20 So I think, I don't know, is there anything, so it's with the Chiefs, right?

00:24 From prior Super Bowls, Ben, that you're using as you enter into this one?

00:29 Not necessarily, because I think that's one of the fascinating things of Super Bowl trends,

00:34 and I love the trends.

00:35 I've looked at the last decade of Super Bowl results and how short these numbers are in

00:39 comparison to, as we talked about, the late 90s, and if you won the NFC, you were laying

00:44 double digits in that eventual Super Bowl championship game.

00:47 But it's always interesting, because you use those trends to inform what you see on the

00:51 most significant stage, and even the fact that Chiefs have been here, Kev, for the fourth

00:55 time in the last five years, this is a very different version of Kansas City than even

01:00 last year's team, or the team that faced off against the very team they will on Sunday

01:04 inside Allegiant Stadium in the San Francisco 49ers.

01:07 But what does stand out to me, Donnie, when you look at these numbers, there's not all

01:11 that much movement in the spread, right?

01:13 It opened very briefly at three in favor of San Francisco, ton of public love for Kansas

01:18 City, gets down to one and a half, a big bet back on the 49ers, now two and a hook.

01:23 We're talking about a field goal or less.

01:25 The last time we saw a number greater than five was way back in February of 2008.

01:31 It was that Super Bowl between the Steelers and the Cardinals.

01:34 Super Bowl 43.

01:35 That was the last time we saw a number that was greater than five points for a Super Bowl

01:39 matchup, showing you how thin those razor edges are once you reach this stage of the

01:44 season.

01:45 Which is fantastic.

01:46 We're not dealing with, you know, three touchdown spreads, and it's going to be a blowout to

01:47 just dip into the props, but also, if you see that graphic come up again, we always

01:52 go back to, nobody wants to bet against Mahomes.

01:54 Oh my God, the Chiefs win all the time.

01:56 Well, the betting public apparently doesn't care about that.

01:58 Chiefs three and a half down to three.

02:00 Chiefs minus two and a half down to the Eagles as a minus one and a half.

02:03 You saw that line right off the bat go from, let's just say, two and a half to one, and

02:06 right back up to two and a half.

02:07 So apparently, as we're lining these games up, not a lot of people are having fear betting

02:11 against the Kansas City Chiefs when you would think that most people are like, "Oh, just

02:14 Michael Jordan and lay it down here on Kansas City."

02:17 And that's not the case.

02:18 I do wonder how much of those moves that we saw, which is a crazy thing to say, how much

02:23 of those moves, I mean, hey, listen, this is pro football today.

02:28 I wonder how much of those moves, though, were public betting versus a big sharp play,

02:34 versus a big syndicate play, versus a huge bet that came in leading into that football

02:39 game.

02:40 If everybody last year was on the birds, looking at Philadelphia as the best team in the National

02:43 Football League.

02:44 If you look at Super Bowl LV, in which the Chiefs were the favorite, a ton of the public

02:49 handle was on Kansas City against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

02:53 Did they have enough to keep up with this lethal Chiefs offense?

02:57 And yet, Joe, the line worked against them, and of course, that was the correct movement

03:01 as Tampa won Super Bowl LV 31-9.

03:04 It was one of the more dismal outings we have seen out of this KC team that has been on

03:08 this dynastic run.

03:09 [MUSIC PLAYING]

03:12 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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