Super Bowl Trends: Underdogs and the Over/Under Total

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00:00 So let's look at recent Super Bowls. Kansas City for instance in Super Bowl 54

00:08 the rematch against San Francisco closed as a one and a half point favorite and

00:13 the total was at 53. Of course the Chiefs won 31 to 20. They covered the number as

00:18 a short favorite. Total stayed barely under. Super Bowl 55 the Chiefs opened as

00:24 a three and a half point favorite closed still laying a field goal. The Buccaneers

00:29 were dominant 31 to 9. Tampa won outright. Super Bowl 56 remained pretty

00:34 consistent between the Rams and the Bengals. In fact in the last decade of

00:39 Super Bowls Donnie, Super Bowl 56 is the only game that incorporated the spread

00:44 where the spread mattered. LA won by 3, 23 to 20 over Cincy. Of course the

00:50 Bengals ended up covering. In the other nine the underdog has either won

00:54 outright that has happened six times now or the favorite has covered the number.

00:59 That includes last year's Super Bowl 57. KC opened as the favorite. By the time we

01:05 got the Super Bowl Sunday in Glendale Arizona the Birds, the Philadelphia Eagles

01:10 a short one and a half point favorite and it furthered the idea of Mahomes as

01:15 the underdog. Now 9 and 3 straight up in the 12 starts he has made in his career

01:20 dating back to 2018 as the underdog 10, 1 and 1 against the spread. And Donnie I

01:27 find it interesting when you use Super Bowl trends of recent history. Different

01:31 teams than who we see here even though it's a Super Bowl 54 rematch these two

01:36 teams are completely different in how they are orchestrated and constructed. And

01:41 yet you can start to learn a few things by how Super Bowl Sundays of the past

01:46 have played out. Six underdogs outright in the last 10 Super Bowl games and when

01:52 those six underdogs have won outright five of those six totals push to the over.

01:58 A couple of the recent trends as it pertains to this Super Bowl Sunday in

02:02 Super Bowl 58. Yeah and again there's those trends that you do want to look at

02:07 because the line movement is pretty interesting to try to watch it play out.

02:11 When I was growing up as a kid basically through the late 80s and early 90s when

02:14 we weren't getting any minus one and a half minus two and a half. There were

02:17 some games where the San Francisco 49ers would show up as 17 point favorites over the

02:22 Chargers. I mean we had some of those wild numbers where it was basically the

02:25 coronation. If you won the NFC Championship game they should have just

02:28 handed you the Super Bowl at the same time because it was a blowout route

02:31 runaway once that NFC team got to the Super Bowl. That's no longer the case and

02:35 that's fantastic because that's why it's fun to have here. We're not talking about

02:39 college football line 17 and a half point number 21 and a half point number.

02:42 We're talking about you pick the winner of the football game you are gonna

02:45 probably pick the winner on the spread line as well. So some of those trends

02:49 coming into it it doesn't affect me as a handicapper. So hey you see that recent

02:53 trend where the underdogs win all the time because I always take the Super Bowl

02:56 and any other game as a separate entity as how it plays out. So the influence for

03:01 me where I go you know what I can't take the Niners the underdog always wins the

03:04 Super Bowl that's certainly not a way to handicap that would be profitable long-term.

03:07 launcher.

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