Eagles Vs. Niners Preview: Examining the Spread & Predictions

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00:00 (upbeat music)

00:02 - Eagles, Niners, one of the biggest games of the year

00:09 with one of the most eye catching lines of the season.

00:12 The 10 and one birds catching three in their own building.

00:16 What do you make of this game?

00:18 - I think that this spread obviously is inflated,

00:22 but it's probably not completely wrong.

00:24 Otherwise we would have seen strong Eagles money

00:26 come in on game day.

00:28 And I by now would have thought that we would have seen

00:30 those threes get wiped out by strong positions

00:33 for anybody who wanted Eagles tickets

00:35 waiting for this line to pop three

00:37 and limits rise on game day.

00:38 But we just haven't seen enough Eagles money

00:42 enter the market.

00:42 So I believe the market is efficient

00:45 and thus I don't see this number being completely wrong.

00:47 Now I attack this game a little bit differently.

00:49 I look to the Eagles, faded the Eagles in the first half

00:53 rather than the full game

00:54 because of how the Philadelphia Eagles start games

00:57 this year compared to last year.

00:59 If you look at full game stats,

01:01 this Eagles team looks nearly identical

01:03 to what they were last year.

01:05 But the big difference is this year's Eagles

01:07 are playing catch up mode late in games.

01:09 On average, they were actually losing at halftime.

01:12 Though they're 10 and one,

01:13 they actually have a losing deficit at halftime this season.

01:17 Whereas last year at halftime,

01:19 they were leading by an average of 7.1 points per game.

01:22 And that was the best margin of any team in the NFL.

01:25 So the big night and day difference

01:27 between these two teams this year to last year,

01:29 I think the Niners are able to come out here

01:31 and start quickly.

01:32 There's a number of props that I took on this game.

01:34 I like Brock Purdy.

01:35 I took his yardage over.

01:36 I took his passing touchdowns over.

01:38 I think Brock Purdy's going to have a little bit

01:40 of success here against this Eagles secondary.

01:43 This Eagles defense without Zach Cunningham there

01:45 patrolling the middle of the field.

01:47 They're already down to Kobe Dean.

01:49 This is a problem for them.

01:50 And I like the Eagles to come out the gate struggling.

01:54 I think the Niners first half,

01:56 I like the Niners first half team total over 10 and a half.

01:59 If it's 12 and a half,

02:00 you could still go over that number

02:02 because I think you really rarely going to see a 11

02:05 or 12 scored in the first half.

02:06 So 10 and a half to me is virtually the same as 12 and a half.

02:10 I still think that the Niners get at least 13 here

02:13 in the first half.

02:14 (upbeat music)

02:16 (bells chiming)

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